NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU UK
Points 78.0 88.2
Total Points   166.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 29.2
Points From Free Throws 17.5 16.1
Shooting LSU UK
Field Goals Made 25.8 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 63.1
Field Goal % 41.5% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 17.5 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 20.5
Free Throw % 73.3% 78.2%
Ball Control LSU UK
Rebounds 35.8 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.0
Turnovers 11.9 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 6.7
Steals 6.7 8.3
Fouls 15.1 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU UK
Total Possessions 77.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 75.4
% of Possessions with LSU UK
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 28.4%
Player Fouled 19.5% 19.6%
Turnover 15.5% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU UK
Shot Blocked 10.8% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 26.3%