NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DETU MSU
Points 55.6 84.9
Total Points   140.6
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 48.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 22.5
Points From Free Throws 11.1 14.0
Shooting DETU MSU
Field Goals Made 19.4 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 58.8
Field Goal % 36.8% 54.0%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 31.1 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 26.5% 40.5%
Free Throws Made 11.1 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 19.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.5%
Ball Control DETU MSU
Rebounds 25.0 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 18.2 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 12.0
Turnovers 13.3 9.0
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.0
Steals 5.1 6.3
Fouls 15.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DETU MSU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 71.2
% of Possessions with DETU MSU
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 22.8%
Player Fouled 20.4% 23.3%
Turnover 19.5% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DETU MSU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 39.7%