NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TENN ARK
Points 81.7 66.7
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 16.6
Points From Free Throws 20.8 20.3
Shooting TENN ARK
Field Goals Made 26.6 20.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 54.3
Field Goal % 43.3% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 42.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 29.0%
Free Throws Made 20.8 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.6 26.6
Free Throw % 75.4% 76.5%
Ball Control TENN ARK
Rebounds 41.8 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 7.7
Turnovers 8.9 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.1
Steals 7.0 5.3
Fouls 18.6 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TENN ARK
Total Possessions 74.8
Effective Scoring Chances 78.3 70.1
% of Possessions with TENN ARK
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 22.6%
Player Fouled 24.7% 24.9%
Turnover 11.9% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TENN ARK
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 20.8%