NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ BAY
Points 82.5 76.5
Total Points   159.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.9 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 26.0
Points From Free Throws 16.1 14.3
Shooting ARIZ BAY
Field Goals Made 29.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 59.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 23.0 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 16.1 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 19.6
Free Throw % 71.0% 73.1%
Ball Control ARIZ BAY
Rebounds 35.8 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.3
Turnovers 10.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.0
Steals 7.8 6.3
Fouls 16.0 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ BAY
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 71.5
% of Possessions with ARIZ BAY
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 28.2%
Player Fouled 23.0% 21.7%
Turnover 14.3% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ BAY
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 26.2%