NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV UNLV
Points 69.6 66.3
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 17.8
Points From Free Throws 16.4 15.8
Shooting NEV UNLV
Field Goals Made 23.3 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 52.8
Field Goal % 44.7% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 16.4 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 21.6
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.0%
Ball Control NEV UNLV
Rebounds 33.9 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.0
Turnovers 9.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.0
Steals 5.6 4.4
Fouls 16.1 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV UNLV
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 65.9
% of Possessions with NEV UNLV
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 24.1%
Player Fouled 26.0% 24.0%
Turnover 14.8% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV UNLV
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 26.9%