NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST MARQ
Points 72.3 75.8
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 26.6
Points From Free Throws 12.5 11.2
Shooting NCST MARQ
Field Goals Made 26.1 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 59.4
Field Goal % 42.9% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 12.5 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 16.3
Free Throw % 72.6% 68.8%
Ball Control NCST MARQ
Rebounds 36.4 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 8.5
Turnovers 10.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.3
Steals 6.3 5.5
Fouls 13.0 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST MARQ
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 69.2
% of Possessions with NCST MARQ
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 31.0%
Player Fouled 18.1% 18.4%
Turnover 14.1% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST MARQ
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 24.8%