NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH UNC
Points 68.0 85.1
Total Points   153.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 24.0
Points From Free Throws 13.1 16.4
Shooting MICH UNC
Field Goals Made 24.0 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 64.4
Field Goal % 40.5% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 13.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 21.8
Free Throw % 70.8% 75.4%
Ball Control MICH UNC
Rebounds 33.4 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.9
Turnovers 11.0 7.3
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.4
Steals 3.1 6.8
Fouls 15.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH UNC
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 77.3
% of Possessions with MICH UNC
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 24.1%
Player Fouled 21.4% 21.7%
Turnover 15.2% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 4.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH UNC
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 32.2%