NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL HOU
Points 118.0 114.3
Total Points   232.4
Points From 2-Pointers 56.1 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 40.3 38.0
Points From Free Throws 21.6 18.5
Shooting MIL HOU
Field Goals Made 41.5 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 92.7
Field Goal % 48.3% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 28.1 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 48.2 55.7
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 37.8 37.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 21.6 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 27.6 24.1
Free Throw % 78.4% 76.8%
Ball Control MIL HOU
Rebounds 51.4 50.0
Rebounds - Defensive 41.0 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 12.8
Turnovers 11.8 9.9
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.9
Steals 5.9 6.6
Fouls 18.2 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL HOU
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 102.2 106.5
% of Possessions with MIL HOU
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.7% 31.3%
Player Fouled 18.5% 17.6%
Turnover 11.4% 9.5%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL HOU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 23.9%