NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS DEN
Points 114.3 108.2
Total Points   222.5
Points From 2-Pointers 55.8 60.7
Points From 3-Pointers 42.2 35.2
Points From Free Throws 16.4 12.3
Shooting BOS DEN
Field Goals Made 42.0 42.1
Field Goals Attempted 89.6 92.8
Field Goal % 46.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 27.9 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 51.6 59.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 14.1 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 38.0 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 16.4 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 15.9
Free Throw % 79.0% 77.4%
Ball Control BOS DEN
Rebounds 51.4 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 12.9
Turnovers 9.4 10.1
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.1
Steals 5.8 5.0
Fouls 13.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS DEN
Total Possessions 98.7
Effective Scoring Chances 101.6 101.5
% of Possessions with BOS DEN
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 52.4%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 29.1%
Player Fouled 14.9% 14.1%
Turnover 9.5% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS DEN
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 24.8%