NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS DEN
Points 114.3 109.4
Total Points   223.7
Points From 2-Pointers 55.6 61.0
Points From 3-Pointers 42.5 36.0
Points From Free Throws 16.2 12.4
Shooting BOS DEN
Field Goals Made 42.0 42.5
Field Goals Attempted 89.7 93.2
Field Goal % 46.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 27.8 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.6 59.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 14.2 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 38.1 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 16.2 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 16.2
Free Throw % 79.1% 77.0%
Ball Control BOS DEN
Rebounds 51.1 50.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.9 37.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.2
Turnovers 9.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.2
Steals 5.8 5.1
Fouls 13.9 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS DEN
Total Possessions 98.9
Effective Scoring Chances 101.6 102.1
% of Possessions with BOS DEN
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 29.2%
Player Fouled 15.0% 14.0%
Turnover 9.6% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS DEN
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 25.3%