NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL DEN
Points 112.7 123.8
Total Points   236.5
Points From 2-Pointers 58.1 69.7
Points From 3-Pointers 35.5 38.1
Points From Free Throws 19.0 16.0
Shooting ATL DEN
Field Goals Made 40.9 47.6
Field Goals Attempted 91.1 89.6
Field Goal % 44.9% 53.1%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 34.9
2 Pointers Attempted 57.5 57.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 60.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 32.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 19.0 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 20.8
Free Throw % 78.3% 76.8%
Ball Control ATL DEN
Rebounds 46.9 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 33.0 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 11.6
Turnovers 10.9 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 6.0
Steals 6.1 6.4
Fouls 16.5 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL DEN
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 104.9 101.9
% of Possessions with ATL DEN
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 28.0%
Player Fouled 16.5% 16.2%
Turnover 10.7% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL DEN
Shot Blocked 6.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 26.0%