NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA ATL
Points 117.8 111.9
Total Points   229.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.4 54.3
Points From 3-Pointers 41.8 41.2
Points From Free Throws 18.5 16.4
Shooting MIA ATL
Field Goals Made 42.7 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.2 88.1
Field Goal % 49.5% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 50.9 49.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.9 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 35.4 39.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.5 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 21.0
Free Throw % 81.9% 78.3%
Ball Control MIA ATL
Rebounds 47.7 47.4
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 35.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.8
Turnovers 11.9 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 7.1 6.0
Fouls 16.2 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA ATL
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 99.4 100.8
% of Possessions with MIA ATL
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 34.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 16.0%
Turnover 11.8% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA ATL
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 23.8%