NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA NO
Points 107.0 109.2
Total Points   216.2
Points From 2-Pointers 49.6 57.0
Points From 3-Pointers 40.2 36.6
Points From Free Throws 17.2 15.6
Shooting MIA NO
Field Goals Made 38.2 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 83.7 84.3
Field Goal % 45.6% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.8 28.5
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 50.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 37.5 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 17.2 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 20.1
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA NO
Rebounds 45.5 47.6
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.0
Turnovers 12.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.2
Steals 6.2 6.6
Fouls 15.5 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA NO
Total Possessions 98.5
Effective Scoring Chances 95.9 96.3
% of Possessions with MIA NO
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.2% 31.1%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.7%
Turnover 12.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA NO
Shot Blocked 5.0% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 21.7%