NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA PHO
Points 107.2 110.8
Total Points   218.0
Points From 2-Pointers 51.5 56.4
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 37.2
Points From Free Throws 17.5 17.2
Shooting MIA PHO
Field Goals Made 38.5 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 87.4 82.3
Field Goal % 44.1% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.2 48.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.2 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 17.5 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 21.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 80.9%
Ball Control MIA PHO
Rebounds 45.1 49.2
Rebounds - Defensive 34.1 39.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.7
Turnovers 10.8 13.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.0
Steals 7.7 5.9
Fouls 16.7 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA PHO
Total Possessions 99.3
Effective Scoring Chances 99.5 95.3
% of Possessions with MIA PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 30.8%
Player Fouled 16.6% 16.8%
Turnover 10.9% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA PHO
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 22.2%