NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAC MIA
Points 110.8 109.5
Total Points   220.3
Points From 2-Pointers 53.8 51.6
Points From 3-Pointers 42.9 38.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 19.4
Shooting SAC MIA
Field Goals Made 41.2 38.6
Field Goals Attempted 87.4 83.2
Field Goal % 47.1% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.9 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 46.8 50.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 40.6 33.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 14.2 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 23.6
Free Throw % 74.6% 81.9%
Ball Control SAC MIA
Rebounds 48.6 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 37.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 8.9
Turnovers 12.0 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.7
Steals 6.4 6.8
Fouls 18.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAC MIA
Total Possessions 100.1
Effective Scoring Chances 99.1 96.9
% of Possessions with SAC MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 36.2% 30.0%
Player Fouled 15.6% 18.4%
Turnover 11.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAC MIA
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 19.1%