NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORL MIA
Points 104.6 102.8
Total Points   207.5
Points From 2-Pointers 54.6 51.7
Points From 3-Pointers 33.1 32.7
Points From Free Throws 17.0 18.5
Shooting ORL MIA
Field Goals Made 38.3 36.7
Field Goals Attempted 81.2 80.8
Field Goal % 47.2% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 27.3 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 48.4 49.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 32.8 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 17.0 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 22.5
Free Throw % 75.7% 81.9%
Ball Control ORL MIA
Rebounds 47.5 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.7
Turnovers 13.5 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.9
Steals 6.7 7.6
Fouls 18.3 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORL MIA
Total Possessions 98.1
Effective Scoring Chances 94.9 93.8
% of Possessions with ORL MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 28.4%
Player Fouled 18.1% 18.7%
Turnover 13.8% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 19.0%