NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MIA
Points 109.8 111.3
Total Points   221.1
Points From 2-Pointers 54.3 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 38.8 36.5
Points From Free Throws 16.6 21.1
Shooting HOU MIA
Field Goals Made 40.1 39.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.0 84.5
Field Goal % 45.6% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 50.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 16.6 21.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 25.8
Free Throw % 76.8% 81.9%
Ball Control HOU MIA
Rebounds 48.9 49.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 38.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.4
Turnovers 11.6 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.6
Steals 6.3 6.8
Fouls 18.9 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MIA
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 100.9 99.5
% of Possessions with HOU MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 30.5%
Player Fouled 16.5% 18.7%
Turnover 11.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MIA
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 21.8%