NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO MIL
Points 115.5 114.7
Total Points   230.1
Points From 2-Pointers 60.1 53.8
Points From 3-Pointers 36.9 43.1
Points From Free Throws 18.4 17.7
Shooting PHO MIL
Field Goals Made 42.4 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 87.5 89.2
Field Goal % 48.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 30.1 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.7 50.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 38.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 18.4 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 22.7
Free Throw % 80.7% 78.0%
Ball Control PHO MIL
Rebounds 50.2 47.4
Rebounds - Defensive 39.4 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.9
Turnovers 12.0 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.1
Steals 6.3 6.9
Fouls 16.6 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO MIL
Total Possessions 102.2
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 102.2
% of Possessions with PHO MIL
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 33.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 16.2%
Turnover 11.7% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO MIL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 21.6%