NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN PHO
Points 111.7 107.7
Total Points   219.4
Points From 2-Pointers 54.4 54.0
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 33.4
Points From Free Throws 18.3 20.3
Shooting MIN PHO
Field Goals Made 40.2 38.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.6 82.4
Field Goal % 46.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 52.7 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.8 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 18.3 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 25.1
Free Throw % 77.9% 80.9%
Ball Control MIN PHO
Rebounds 47.6 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 35.6 36.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.9
Turnovers 12.0 14.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.6
Steals 8.0 6.8
Fouls 18.4 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Minnesota

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN PHO
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.4 97.2
% of Possessions with MIN PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 26.0%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.3%
Turnover 11.9% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN PHO
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 23.5%