NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR MIA
Points 103.3 112.4
Total Points   215.6
Points From 2-Pointers 54.4 58.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 33.9
Points From Free Throws 14.9 19.9
Shooting POR MIA
Field Goals Made 38.5 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 82.9
Field Goal % 44.6% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 29.3
2 Pointers Attempted 52.3 50.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 14.9 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 24.3
Free Throw % 79.4% 81.9%
Ball Control POR MIA
Rebounds 47.0 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 34.5 37.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 10.0
Turnovers 13.8 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.9
Steals 6.0 8.0
Fouls 18.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR MIA
Total Possessions 99.2
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 97.2
% of Possessions with POR MIA
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 29.2%
Player Fouled 14.9% 18.6%
Turnover 13.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 22.5%