College Football Preseason Predictions 2021: All 130 Teams + Conference Projections
From win totals to conference champion odds to projected final standings, our 2021 college football preseason predictions have it covered.
August 19, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Nick Saban appears to have a cheat code for college football. (Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire)
The process of coming up with our 2021 college football preseason predictions begins with a look backward.
Last season, Ohio State spoiled Clemson’s run of consecutive national title game appearances. Meanwhile, Alabama rebounded from a one-year absence in the College Football Playoff to win the national title. Alabama has made five of the last six title games, and won three of them.
So it shouldn’t come as a big surprise that we give the Crimson Tide the best chance of emerging from the 2021 season as national champions. Reloading on talent lost to the NFL on a yearly basis is no strange thing to Coach Saban.
Read on for our data-driven 2021 preseason predictions for all 130 FBS college football teams, from season win totals to conference champion odds.
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2021 Predictions: Conference Champion Odds
To kick things off, here are the three most likely teams to win each FBS conference according to our preseason predictions, along with each team’s conference champion odds:
| Conference | Favorite | Odds | — | 2nd Favorite | Odds | — | 3rd Favorite | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Clemson | 64.5% | North Carolina | 12.2% | Miami (FL) | 10.2% | ||
| Big 12 | Oklahoma | 54.0% | Iowa State | 18.7% | Texas | 7.9% | ||
| Big Ten | Ohio State | 47.7% | Wisconsin | 17.7% | Iowa | 8.1% | ||
| Pac-12 | Oregon | 23.1% | Utah | 17.5% | Washington | 17.1% | ||
| SEC | Alabama | 49.6% | Georgia | 28.9% | Texas A&M | 7.5% | ||
| AAC | Cincinnati | 46.0% | UCF | 20.8% | Houston | 7.8% | ||
| C-USA | UAB | 25.1% | Marshall | 21.5% | UTSA | 12.4% | ||
| MAC | Toledo | 23.4% | Ball State | 15.0% | Buffalo | 13.6% | ||
| MWC | Boise State | 37.9% | Nevada | 14.5% | San Jose State | 12.8% | ||
| Sun Belt | UL Lafayette | 41.3% | Appalachian State | 25.9% | Coastal Carolina | 18.6% |
Conference Champ Odds Highlights
Across all FBS conferences, the team with the best chance to win its conference is Clemson to win the ACC with 64.5% odds.
The last time Clemson failed to win the ACC title was in 2014, when QB Jameis Winston was at Florida State. Since 2016, no team has even stayed within 23 points of Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
On the other end of the parity spectrum, the Pac-12 is the most balanced conference, followed by the MAC.
In the MAC, no team has even a 25% chance to win the conference. Toledo is the favorite at 23.4%, while nine different teams have at least a 5% chance of winning the conference title.
In the Pac-12, five teams have between a 10% and 25% chance of winning the conference.
Preseason Rankings & In-Season Updates
Two notes before we get to the conference-by-conference preseason projections for 2021:
- Preseason rankings. If you want to compare our expected performance level of every team in 2021 across conferences, check out our 2021 college football preseason rankings.
- In-season updates. Once the 2021 college football season starts, we update all of our season projections and conference title odds daily, on our new college football predictions page.
ACC Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| Atlantic | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Clemson | 7.5 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 99.9% | 64.5% | 40.2% |
| Wake Forest | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 79.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Louisville | 3.9 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 60.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Boston Col | 3.9 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 77.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| NC State | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 69.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Florida St | 3.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 50.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Syracuse | 1.7 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 21.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Coastal | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| N Carolina | 5.8 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 93.4% | 12.2% | 8.7% |
| Miami (FL) | 5.8 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 91.2% | 10.2% | 3.2% |
| VA Tech | 4.3 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 73.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Pittsburgh | 3.9 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 78.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Virginia | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 60.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| GA Tech | 2.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 32.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Duke | 1.6 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 26.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
2021 is yet another year in which Clemson should be the class of the conference. In 2020, Notre Dame temporarily played in the conference and appeared in the title game. The Fighting Irish will be back to independent status this year, further reducing Clemson’s competition.
North Carolina and Miami are the two teams most likely to win the Coastal Division, while the rest of the Atlantic Division is muddled behind Clemson.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Clemson (64.5% odds)
Big 12 Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Oklahoma | 7.8 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 99.5% | 54.0% | 33.3% |
| Iowa State | 6.4 | 2.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 95.4% | 18.7% | 7.0% |
| Texas | 5.4 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 83.0% | 7.9% | 2.3% |
| TX Christian | 5.3 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 86.4% | 7.3% | 2.0% |
| Oklahoma St | 5.2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 81.1% | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| W Virginia | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 67.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Kansas St | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 49.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Baylor | 3.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Texas Tech | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 45.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kansas | 0.5 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 10.4 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Oklahoma matches Clemson in conference dominance, as the Sooners have won the Big 12 each of the last six seasons. They are the favorite again in 2021, but Iowa State poses the biggest threat to end that streak.
A major subplot in the Big 12 this season is the news that Oklahoma and Texas will be leaving for the SEC in the future. Expect hostile crowds for those two teams as they travel to other conference sites in 2021.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Oklahoma (54.0% odds)
Big Ten Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Ohio State | 7.8 | 1.2 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 99.3% | 47.7% | 32.5% |
| Penn State | 5.6 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 87.6% | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| Indiana | 5.2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 81.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Michigan | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 79.1% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Maryland | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 54.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Michigan St | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 40.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rutgers | 2.0 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 25.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Wisconsin | 6.7 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 93.9% | 17.7% | 11.6% |
| Iowa | 5.7 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 84.4% | 8.1% | 3.6% |
| Minnesota | 4.2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 69.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Nebraska | 4.2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 59.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Northwestern | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 64.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Purdue | 3.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 47.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Illinois | 2.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 26.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Ohio State has only won the Big Ten Conference four years in a row. The last time the Buckeyes lost a conference game was in October 2018, and they are again favored to win the conference this year. (Might there be a parity problem in college football?)
Wisconsin and Iowa are the most likely challengers from the West, while Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan are expected to provide the stiffest competition to Ohio State in the East.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is projected to be more competitive than it has been in several years, though the Scarlet Knights are still likely to finish at the bottom of the East Division standings.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Ohio State (47.7% odds)
Pac-12 Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| North | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Oregon | 6.5 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 93.1% | 23.1% | 3.8% |
| Washington | 6.2 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 90.3% | 17.1% | 6.7% |
| California | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 55.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Wash State | 3.6 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 57.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Stanford | 3.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 35.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Oregon St | 2.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 36.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| South | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Utah | 6.2 | 2.8 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 91.5% | 17.5% | 8.3% |
| USC | 6.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 84.0% | 14.1% | 4.5% |
| Arizona St | 5.8 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 90.7% | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| UCLA | 4.9 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 73.1% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Colorado | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 35.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Arizona | 1.4 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 10.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
For the Pac-12 in 2021, the big question is whether any of the teams can play well enough to enter and stay in the College Football Playoff discussion. The last time a Pac-12 team made it through the conference title game with one loss or fewer was 2016, which was also the last year the conference sent a team to the Playoff (Washington).
Our projections again see the Pac-12 as a muddled race. Every team is projected for at least three losses in the regular season, although a team could get lucky in close games and finish better than that.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Oregon (23.1% odds)
SEC Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Georgia | 7.0 | 1.0 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 99.5% | 28.9% | 21.0% |
| Florida | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 94.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Missouri | 3.9 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 76.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Kentucky | 3.7 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 78.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Tennessee | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 54.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| S Carolina | 2.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | 1.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Alabama | 7.1 | 0.9 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 99.9% | 49.6% | 42.3% |
| Texas A&M | 5.3 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 96.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| LSU | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 86.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Mississippi | 4.3 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 82.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Auburn | 3.7 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 76.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Miss State | 3.3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 63.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Arkansas | 2.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 49.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Alabama and Georgia appear to be on a collision course for the SEC title game this year.
Because of the depth of the conference and the elite powers at the top, only four teams are projected for more than eight wins to start the season. Meanwhile, eight teams are projected for between 5.6 wins and 7.9 wins, so the race to get to bowl eligibility in the conference could be tight.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Alabama (49.6% odds)
Predictions For Other FBS Conferences
AAC Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Cincinnati | 6.8 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 97.9% | 46.0% | 13.6% |
| Central FL | 5.9 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 95.3% | 20.8% | 7.8% |
| Houston | 5.1 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 87.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Memphis | 4.8 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 82.8% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Tulsa | 4.7 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 72.8% | 7.0% | 0.4% |
| S Methodist | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Tulane | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| E Carolina | 3.3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 47.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Navy | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 21.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| S Florida | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 19.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Temple | 1.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 8.6 | 13.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
With Connecticut officially out of the conference, leaving it with 11 members, there will be no divisions. Cincinnati and Central Florida, who are rated as the top two contenders, can therefore meet in the title game, which could not have happened a year ago.
Cincinnati is the expected class of the conference under head coach Luke Fickell. The team is coming off a season in which their only loss came in the Peach Bowl in a close contest with Georgia.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Cincinnati (46.0% odds)
C-USA Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Marshall | 5.7 | 2.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 86.8% | 21.5% | 3.6% |
| Fla Atlantic | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 77.6% | 11.9% | 0.8% |
| W Kentucky | 4.2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.1% | 5.7% | 0.3% |
| Middle Tenn | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 46.3% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 37.6% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Florida Intl | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 33.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Old Dominion | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 18.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| UAB | 5.8 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 84.2% | 25.1% | 0.8% |
| TX-San Ant | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 80.7% | 12.4% | 2.3% |
| Rice | 4.4 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 55.0% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
| S Mississippi | 4.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 60.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| LA Tech | 4.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 47.2% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| North Texas | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 26.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| TX El Paso | 1.8 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 17.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
C-USA is usually one of the most wide-open conferences in the FBS, and that’s true again in 2021. UAB, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, and Texas-San Antonio are all contenders to win the conference title.
Rice, a team we project for 5.8 wins, will try to finish at 6-6 or better for the first time since 2014.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
UAB (25.1% odds)
MAC Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Buffalo | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 81.0% | 13.6% | 1.7% |
| Ohio | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 74.0% | 12.2% | 1.1% |
| Kent State | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.7% | 6.6% | 0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 4.2 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 50.2% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| Akron | 1.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 4.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Grn | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 10.2 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Toledo | 5.8 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 94.5% | 23.4% | 3.9% |
| Ball State | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 77.5% | 15.0% | 1.7% |
| W Michigan | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 63.4% | 9.0% | 0.6% |
| Central Mich | 4.3 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 64.2% | 7.8% | 0.5% |
| E Michigan | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 69.4% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
| N Illinois | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 23.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
Last year, Ball State jumped up and unexpectedly won the MAC for its first conference title since 1996. The conference is wide open again, and the only three teams that would be a major surprise to win it are Akron, Bowling Green, and Northern Illinois.
A whopping nine of the conference’s 12 teams project within 1.7 games of first place. However, those projections represent the averages of many season simulations. In any one season, we don’t expect the teams to finish in such a tight bunch.
Good luck guessing which teams come out on top this year, though.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Toledo (23.4% odds)
Mountain West Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| Mountain | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Boise State | 6.3 | 1.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 91.4% | 37.9% | 5.6% |
| Wyoming | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 85.9% | 10.0% | 3.5% |
| Air Force | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 71.2% | 5.4% | 1.2% |
| Colorado St | 3.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 41.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| New Mexico | 2.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 37.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Utah State | 2.3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 22.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| San Jose St | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 85.9% | 12.8% | 2.3% |
| Nevada | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 84.9% | 14.5% | 2.6% |
| San Diego St | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 74.9% | 7.2% | 1.2% |
| Fresno St | 4.2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 64.2% | 6.1% | 0.3% |
| Hawaii | 3.8 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 71.2% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| UNLV | 1.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Boise State is again the favorite to win the Mountain Division and the conference. The Pacific Division is fairly open, with San Jose State, Nevada, San Diego State, and Fresno State all having decent chances to win it.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Boise State (37.9% odds)
Sun Belt Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Coastal Car | 6.1 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 98.1% | 18.6% | 13.3% |
| App State | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 93.9% | 25.9% | 5.8% |
| Troy | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 72.3% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Georgia State | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 49.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| GA Southern | 3.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 39.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Louisiana | 6.5 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 95.5% | 41.3% | 7.6% |
| Arkansas St | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 35.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Texas State | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 35.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| S Alabama | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 31.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| LA Monroe | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 10.3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Louisiana has a major advantage playing in the West, which increases its odds to win the conference. We project the Ragin’ Cajuns to finish with three more conference wins than other teams in their division.
In the East, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State will most likely face off to reach the title game. Applachian State and Louisiana are basically even in our power rankings, but scheduling imbalance gives the Ragin’ Cajuns a 15% greater chance of winning the conference.
You might notice that we project Appalachian State with a slightly worse conference record than Coastal Carolina, but a slightly better chance to win the East. The Mountaineers host the lone game between these two contenders, which gives them a projected tiebreaker edge.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Louisiana (41.3% odds)
Independent I-A Football Preseason Predictions 2021
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Liberty | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 96.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| Notre Dame | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 86.7% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Army | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 83.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| BYU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 75.2% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Connecticut | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| N Mex State | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 10.1 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| U Mass | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.8 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Notre Dame returns to the independent ranks in 2021. Liberty looks to follow up its excellent 2020 season, while BYU and Army also have a good chance to reach a bowl game.
Connecticut is not expected to enjoy its first season as an independent.
How We Make College Football Preseason Predictions
We have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated predictive value for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing a decade’s worth of college football data and applying significance tests to any interesting-looking findings. Then, we built an algorithmic model that takes in these metrics as inputs and computes a numerical preseason predictive rating for every FBS team.
To learn more about our preseason ratings, please read our deep dive about our college football preseason ratings methodology and check out our 2021 college football preseason rankings.
Going from Preseason Ratings To Season Projections
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this upcoming season. Figuring out how many games we expect that team to win is more complicated.
To do that, we run thousands of game-by-game computer simulations of the 2021 college football season, using our predictive ratings to come up with implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally, an unheralded team gets lucky in a simulation, makes a run and wins its conference.
Over thousands of simulation runs, trends in the results begin to emerge. The predictions in this post represent the averages of all of the 2021 college football season simulations we conducted.
Why Does Our Approach Make Sense?
Despite some limitations, our simulation-driven approach to preseason college football predictions has proven to be far more accurate than many alternatives.
Some college football experts do a decent job of projecting the future performance level of a team, especially one they’ve studied closely. But on the whole, humans often have a poor grasp of the potential impact of probability and randomness over a full college football season.
For example, even skilled “college football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team.
It’s true that a team like Oklahoma is unlikely to lose to a team like Kansas, but no game is a lock. Over the course of a season, even small loss probabilities can add up to a decent chance of a great team losing at least one game to a significantly inferior opponent.
You can’t discount those probabilities, especially when conference championships can be decided by a single win. Our simulation-driven approach makes sure we never do.
Is it a perfect system? No. When the dust settles at the end of the season, some of our preseason projections will be wrong. Some teams will defy our expectations. Injuries, suspensions and other unexpected events will derail our forecasts for others.
Our goal, however, is the overall accuracy of the system — how well, on balance, it projects how all 130 teams will end up this season.
How To Interpret Our CFB Preseason Predictions
In closing, it’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and what the numbers mean. Here are some key details:
- We project a lot of fractional wins. That can’t happen in real life. However, we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look pretty. For example, a projected 8.4-win team has better prospects than a projected 7.6-win team. If we rounded those numbers, they’d look the same (a projected eight wins each).
- Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t mean we’re confident they’ll end up with that exact number. Let’s say we have a team projected to win exactly 7.0 games. In our season simulations, seven wins might have been the most common outcome, but that team may have ended up with six or eight wins nearly as often, and hit five or nine wins some of the time. Since our final projection is an average of all of those outcomes, it ends up at seven wins, but the odds of the team ending up with exactly seven wins actually aren’t that high.
- Projections can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. Because we re-simulate the college football season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in the projections. For example, a 0.1% difference in conference champion odds between two teams is practically meaningless.
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