NFL Week 1 Mega Preview: Breaking Down All 16 Games (2023)

Our NFL Week 1 preview features 11,538 words of predictions, odds, analysis, and news to get you ready for the start of the 2023 season.

September 3, 2023 - by Seth Trachtman

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have high hopes or another playoff run. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season starts Thursday, September 7, with the Detroit Lions visiting the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Here’s a numbers-driven preview of all 16 games, including the latest news, spreads, picks, odds, stats, injuries, preseason outlooks, betting trends, and more.

We dare you to read it all!

NOTE: All point spread and prediction data in this post was accurate as of Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 2:30 pm ET. Numbers will change as Week 1 kickoffs approach, so make sure to check the site for the latest updates.

Detroit at Kansas City | Carolina at Atlanta | Cincinnati at Cleveland | Jacksonville at Indianapolis | Tampa Bay at Minnesota | Tennessee at New Orleans | San Francisco at Pittsburgh | Arizona at Washington | Houston at Baltimore | Green Bay at Chicago | Las Vegas at Denver | Philadelphia at New England | Miami at LA Chargers | LA Rams at Seattle | Dallas at NY Giants | Buffalo at NY Jets

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NFL Picks & Tools For 2023

Before we begin, a quick reminder that we’ve got an assortment of NFL picks, predictions, rankings, and tools available across our three brands (TeamRankings, BetIQ, PoolGenius):

Betting Picks: Staff Picks, spread, over/under

Pool Picks: Survivor pools, pick’em contests

Fantasy Rankings: Best Ball, season-long

Season Projections: Data, preseason article

1. Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

Game Time: Thursday, Sept. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: Kansas City -7.0

News & Notes

The defending Super Bowl champs open the season vs. the up-and-coming Lions. Kansas City ranked first in the league last season with 29.2 points per game, while Detroit ranked fifth with 26.6 points per game, so it should come as no surprise that this matchup has the highest total (54.0) of the week.

Detroit Lions

Detroit was relieved to retain offensive coordinator Ben Johnson despite head coaching interest from competitors, but the team did have some offensive changes in the offseason. The running back duo of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift is out, with former Bears RB David Montgomery and rookie first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs replacing them. The team also brought back long-time WR Marvin Jones Jr., effectively replacing D.J. Chark and giving QB Jared Goff a viable veteran deep threat to join superstar WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Speedy WR Jameson Williams will also be available after serving a six-game suspension for gambling.

The Lions’ defense has been at the bottom of the league in recent seasons with major personnel turnover. The Lions’ youth movement started last season with formidable first-round DE Aidan Hutchinson, and the additions continued this offseason with first-round LB Jack Campbell along with a revamped secondary that includes CBs Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton plus new safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have seen major personnel changes since QB Patrick Mahomes took the starting reins in 2018, but head coach Andy Reid’s offense continues to perform like a well-oiled machine. The elite offensive line interior, TE Travis Kelce, and the running back room remain since last year, but the team has two new starting offensive tackles and a wide receiver corps that lost its top player for a second consecutive season. The pressure is on WRs Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice to fill the void from the departed JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The defense remains mostly the same on the second and third levels, though the defensive line is in flux. Veteran DEs Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap have moved on after winning rings, with free agent DE Charles Omenihu and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah replacing them. However, Omenihu is set to miss the first six games due to suspension. Also, the heart and soul of the defense, DT Chris Jones, could miss the start of the season due to a contract dispute.

Key Injuries/Absences

Detroit: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s status is up in the air after suffering a right knee injury. WR Jameson Williams will also miss the first six games due to suspension. DE Julian Okwara was place on IR with an undisclosed injury.

Kansas City: DT Chris Jones seems unlikely to end his holdout and play in Week 1. He’s stated that he could sit out up to seven weeks. DE Charles Omenihu has been suspended for six games. WR Kadarius Toney had minor knee surgery during the preseason, but could be ready to play this week.

Betting Blurbs

  • Super Bowl Champs: The defending Super Bowl champion is 9-4 SU and 6-5-2 ATS in its season opener over the last 13 years.
  • Masterful Reid: The Chiefs have finished with a winning record every year since Andy Reid took over in 2013. Under Reid, they’ve had the best record in the NFL at 129-52, and they’ve been the seventh-most profitable at 95-82-4 (53.7%) ATS.
  • Lt. Dan: The Lions have a winning ATS record in both of head coach Dan Campbell’s seasons, and are a league-best 23-11 (67.7%) ATS during that time.

Season Outlook

Detroit opens the season ranked No. 13 in our predictive ratings, with a 35% chance to win the NFC North and 55% chance to make the playoffs. The Chiefs are our top ranked team, with a 14% chance to repeat as champs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Kansas City (74.6% win odds)

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2. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Atlanta -3.5

News & Notes

The Frank Reich and Bryce Young eras begin in Carolina, as the team made wholesale changes in the offseason following Matt Rhule’s tenure with a revolving cast of quarterbacks. The Falcons haven’t exactly set the world on fire on offense, continuing to feature a run-heavy scheme under head coach Arthur Smith that could be boosted with hyped first-round RB Bijan Robinson.

Carolina Panthers

Reich finally has the young quarterback that he craved during his time coaching Indianapolis, as first overall pick Bryce Young starts his NFL career after winning the Heisman Trophy at Alabama. The rest of the Panthers’ offensive weapons are pretty new. The best wide receiver in Carolina recently, D.J. Moore, was part of the trade package with Chicago to move up and take Young. Free agent RB Miles Sanders has moved from Philly and long-time Viking WR Adam Thielen adds veteran leadership to a wide receiver room that also includes newcomers DJ Chark and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo to go with third-year WR Terrace Marshall. TE Hayden Hurst gives Young another option after a solid year in Cincinnati.

The defensive talent is more stagnant, though the addition of coordinator Ejiro Evero from Denver was acclaimed around the league. The Panthers did add a few new role players on defense, along with starting S Vonn Bell, but the featured talent is homegrown like DT Derrick Brown, OLB Brian Burns, CB Jaycee Horn, and S Jeremy Chinn.

Atlanta Falcons

To the surprise of many, the Falcons anointed 2022 draftee Desmond Ridder their starting quarterback this season. The team ranked second with a 55.3% running play percentage last season, and are seemingly set to lean in on those tendencies after selecting Bijan Robinson eighth overall in the draft despite the presence of RBs Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. The Falcons signed complementary WRs Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller, joining recent first-round picks Kyle Pitts and Drake London as a young and potentially exciting, but unproven, set of weapons.

The team replaced retired DC Dean Pees with Ryan Nielsen, a highly sought after former Saints assistant. He will be challenged with getting a bevy of new veterans to mesh, including DE Calais Campbell, DT David Onyemata, OLBs Bud Dupree and Kaden Elliss, CBs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes, and S Jessie Bates. The moves were needed after the Falcons ranked in the bottom half of the league in points and yards, but it remains to be seen how the unit will perform in Week 1.

Key Injuries/Absences

Carolina: WRs DJ Chark (hamstring) and Terrace Marshall (back) have both had minor injuries during the preseason, but are hopeful to play in Week 1. OG Austin Corbett will miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL.

Atlanta: CB Jeff Okudah (ankle) is unlikely to play in Week 1. RB Cordarrelle Patterson’s status is unclear as he nurses a soft-tissue injury.

Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

The Panthers and Falcons rank No. 27 and No. 21, respectively, in our predictive ratings. Despite those poor rankings, Carolina has a 35% chance to make the playoffs, while Atlanta is at 50%.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Atlanta (64.6% win odds)

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3. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Cincinnati -2.5

News & Notes

Cincinnati’s season ended in heart-breaking fashion again, losing late in the AFC Championship to the Chiefs after falling to the Rams in the Super Bowl two years ago. The high expectations haven’t changed, but the rival Browns have similar hopes for this season with QB Deshaun Watson getting more time to get comfortable in Cleveland.

Cincinnati Bengals

With superstar QB Joe Burrow still on his rookie deal, the Bengals opened their wallets once more during the offseason. The headlining move was the addition of former Chiefs LT Orlando Brown Jr. to protect Burrow’s blindside, but the team also added athletic TE Irv Smith Jr. With the excellent trio of WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd still around, plus star RB Joe Mixon, the Bengals offense has reason to believe they can at least repeat last year’s finish of 25.7 points per game (seventh-best).

The big paychecks are due soon on offense, so the Bengals did have to take some cost-cutting measures on defense. Most notably, the team moved on from starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, and also lost CB Eli Apple. Cincinnati will rely on youth in their stead, with 2022 first rounder Dax Hill, 2022 second-round pick Cam Taylor-Britt, and rookies Jordan Battle and DJ Turner set to take on big roles. Former Ram S Nick Scott will also see a lot of playing time after emerging as a starter for LA last season.

Remarkably, the team was able to keep coordinators OC Brian Callahan and DC Lou Anarumo in spite of the pair receiving head coaching interviews. Keeping the pair of coordinators is a great sign for head coach Zac Taylor and the rest of the team, and an advantage not shared by fellow AFC contenders Kansas City and Buffalo.

Burrow suffered a calf injury early in camp, and is expected to miss the preseason, though he should be good to go for Week 1.

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski enters his fourth season, which could be a make-or-break year after consecutive losing seasons. Key to contention will be Deshaun Watson, who mustered a career-worst 58.2% completion rate and threw five picks in six games after returning from suspension last season. He has more help this season with the additions of WRs Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin, and Cedric Tillman, though his two favorite receivers last season (Amari Cooper and David Njoku) seem likely to remain the same. The team still features RB Nick Chubb, who averaged at least five yards per carry for the fifth time last year en route to 1,525 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.

The defense had bigger changes after allowing 22.4 points per game, with long-time NFL coach Jim Schwartz taking over as coordinator. The Browns hope to complement stars DE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward with the additions of DE Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, and S Juan Thornhill.

Key Injuries/Absences

Cincinnati: QB Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury in training camp, but is expected to play in Week 1. DE Joseph Ossai is questionable for Week 1 with an ankle injury. OT La’el Collins is out as he recovers from a torn ACL.

Cleveland: CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion in Cleveland’s final preseason game, and his status for Week 1 is uncertain.

Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

Cincinnati is the projected leader in the AFC North once again, with a 40% chance to win the division and 70.0% chance to make the playoffs. Their 7% odds to win the Super Bowl are third in the AFC, behind the Chiefs and Bills. We give the Browns a 43% chance to bounce back and make the playoffs, and they open the year No. 12 in our predictive ratings.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Cincinnati (52.3% win odds)

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4. Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Jacksonville -5.0

News & Notes

Jacksonville was last season’s most improved team, as new head coach Doug Pederson got the ship back afloat with an offense that finished top 10 in points led by second-year QB Trevor Lawrence. They have ambitions to win the division for the second straight year, while the Colts could be in more of a development phase as new head coach Shane Steichen evaluates his personnel and develops first-round rookie QB Anthony Richardson.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Few teams come into the 2023 season with more momentum than the Jaguars, who won six of their final seven regular season games to claim the AFC South and proceeded to pull off a miracle comeback vs. the Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Trevor Lawrence still made the occasional mistake, but his performance in his second season was lightyears ahead of his rookie season with 25 TDs to 8 INTs. His weapons get even better this year, as former Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley returns from suspension to join Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne. The biggest concern for the team entering the year is the offensive line, as RT Jamaal Taylor signed elsewhere in free agency and LT Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games. The line was a strength last season, ranking fifth best with a 4.48% sack rate.

DC Mike Caldwell’s unit is mostly status quo, though that’s not necessarily a bad thing after ranking top half of the league in points allowed and seeing progress in the second half of the season. The Jaguars will continue to rely on edge rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker for the bulk of the pass rush, and will be counting on some inexperienced players for depth after moving on from a few veterans.

Indianapolis Colts

Indy hopes they finally found their answer at quarterback after the merry-go-round since Andrew Luck’s retirement. Anthony Richardson will be quite a change from more stationary veterans like Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan. Naysayers are quick to point out that Richardson completed only 53.8% of his passes at Florida last season, but he also flashed elite ability as a runner. He will get time to grow with young WRs Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs. Jonathan Taylor was the leading rusher in the NFL in 2021, before injuries de-railed his 2022 season, and he will miss at least the first four games of the season after demanding a trade and being placed on the PUP list. Equally concerning is the offensive line, which was in a clear state of flux last season (9.04% sack rate) and still has long-term questions at multiple positions, most notably left tackle.

There’s more stability on defense after the Colts retained DC Gus Bradley. The team did replace leading sacker Yannick Ngakoue with DE Samson Ebukam, while DT DeForest Buckner still anchors the front four. The biggest boost would come from a healthy LB Shaquille Leonard, who played only three games last season after making three straight Pro Bowls. The secondary is also much younger, losing CBs Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers, as three rookies are now set to play prominent roles. It’s an area early opponents like the Jaguars could try to exploit.

Key Injuries/Absences

Jacksonville: LT Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games of the season. DLs Dawuane Smoot (Achilles) and DaVon Hamilton (back) could also miss the start of the year.

Indianapolis: RB Jonathan Taylor will miss the first four games on the PUP list after the team failed to trade him. RB Zack Moss is unlikely to play in Week 1 due to a fractured arm. TEs Jelani Woods will miss the start of the year with a hamstring injury. LBs Shaquille Leonard and E.J. Speed missed time in training camp due to concussions.

 Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

We think Jacksonville’s breakout season is real, with a 53% chance to win the AFC South this season. The rival Colts are 18 spots behind Jacksonville at No. 29 in our rankings, with only a 19% chance to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Jacksonville (69.8% win odds)

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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Minnesota -5.5

News & Notes

The Bucs turned the page on the Tom Brady era during the offseason, and also purged several veterans and OC Byron Leftwich. The team will embark on its new chapter against one of the biggest surprises of 2022, a Vikings squad that won the NFC North at 13-4 before falling in the Wild Card Round. Former Seahawks assistant Dave Canales will be calling plays for Tampa Bay after establishing a strong track record with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Heading into training camp, it’s not entirely clear who will start under center for Tampa Bay. QB Baker Mayfield bounced from Cleveland to Carolina and then to a Rams team in need of help after Matthew Stafford’s injury last season. He beat out Kyle Trask in training camp, but will need to regain the form that saw him average 25 TDs per season in his first three years in Cleveland for the Bucs to prolong their playoff streak. The team lost some depth at wideout, but still have an enviable WR trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage. The rest of the offense is very young, however, with two new regular starters on the right side of the offensive line, second-year RB Rachaad White, and TE Cade Otton.

The defense took a bit of a step back last season (15th in points allowed) with play caller Todd Bowles taking on more responsibility as the head coach. Most of the key contributors from recent seasons are still on the team, though the Bucs are green is some areas like the defensive line where rookie DL Calijah Kancey will replace Akiem Hicks. The Bucs also have new starters at safety and nickel corner, though key veterans like DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David, LB Devin White, CB Jamel Dean, and S Antoine Winfield Jr. still make this unit one to reckon with in the winnable NFC South.

Minnesota Vikings

The perception of a flashier offense under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell isn’t necessarily accurate, but the unit is certainly Minnesota’s strength. While the Vikings improved to eighth-best in points scored last season, it was actually their lowest points scored total since 2019. QB Kirk Cousins has lost some of his support as RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen are gone, but he’s set for a full season of TE T.J. Hockenson and first-round WR Jordan Addison to join superstar WR Justin Jefferson and new starter RB Alexander Mattison.

Minnesota’s 13-4 regular season was remarkable considering a negative point differential and continued poor defense, ranking third-worst in points and second-worst in yards. To the team’s credit, they made significant changes. Former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores was brought on to lead the defensive unit, while the new starters to help include DE Dean Lowry, OLB Marcus Davenport, and CBs Byron Murphy and Mekhi Blackmon in the 3-4 scheme. The team has almost nowhere to go but up, and a fortunate early matchup vs. an offense that’s in a similar mode of rebuilding.

Key Injuries/Absences

Tampa Bay: OC Ryan Jensen missed the entire 2022 regular season with a knee injury, and is set to miss 2023 with the same injury after returning in the playoffs last year. WR Russell Gage is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon. WR Mike Evans has been nursing a groin injury, but is expected to play in Week 1. DT Calijah Kancey has a calf injury, putting his Week 1 status in question.

Minnesota: The Vikings didn’t have any major injury issues heading into Week 1 prep.

Betting Blurbs

  • Bad Bucs: Tampa Bay was the worst ATS team in 2022 at 4-13-1.
  • MIN Max: The Vikings had the best over record in 2022 at 12-6.

Season Outlook

Tampa Bay opens the season near the cellar, as our No. 30 ranked team with only an 19% chance to make the playoffs. We also see some regression for the Vikings, who are a toss-up to make the playoffs at 51% and rank No. 14.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Minnesota (68.6% win odds)

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6. Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: New Orleans -3.5

News & Notes

New Titans GM Ran Carthon wasted no time putting his fingerprints on the Titans roster after their collapse during the second half of 2022. The team has multiple new starters on the offensive line, wide receiver, and across the defense. The Saints also reacted after a disappointing season, signing former Raiders QB Derek Carr.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee enters training camp with QB Ryan Tannehill healthy after nursing a nagging ankle injury last season, though second-round pick Will Levis could be the starter of the future. Following the failed Robert Woods experiment last season, the Titans found a more capable No. 1 wideout in DeAndre Hopkins. Added to a group that includes RB Derrick Henry and 2022 draftees WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, plus the promotion of Tim Kelly to coordinator, Tennessee hopes to improve upon its 28th-place finish in scoring offense last season. The group will face challenges with four new starters on the offensive line, led by first-round rookie RT Peter Skoronski.

The Titans defense finished sixth-worst in sack rate, a trend that they hope to remedy with the return of OLB Harold Landry from injury and the addition of OLB Arden Key. The defensive line remains intact, led by back-to-back Pro Bowler DE Jeffery Simmons. The team also took care of a hole at cornerback, signing former Bucs CB Sean Murphy-Bunting. No team in the NFL saw a higher opposing passing rate or allowed more passing yards last season.

New Orleans Saints

Year 1 A.P. (After Payton) wasn’t smooth for the Saints, failing to score 20 points per game and suffering their first losing season since 2016. New Orleans has had a huge need at quarterback since Drew Brees’ retirement, and hope Derek Carr is the answer. Carr was all but run out of town by the Las Vegas coaching staff after nine seasons with the franchise, struggling with a 60.8% completion rate and 14 interceptions in 15 games. He enters an offense more similar to the Jon Gruden scheme that he’d grown accustomed to with the Raiders. The Saints offense still has some questions, with RB Alvin Kamara suspended three games due to off-field issues and WR Michael Thomas’ return from another lower body injury (he’s played 10 games the last three seasons combined). Though, they have ample insurance, signing 2022 running back touchdown leader Jamaal Williams and seeing positives from the development of WR Chris Olave last season. With a capable quarterback, Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill goes back to the utility role that made him famous.

The Saints defense remained in the top 10 in points and yards allowed for the third consecutive season, even as coordinator Dennis Allen was promoted to head coach. The team added some youth to their defensive line, using their top two draft picks at the position and signing former Chiefs DT Khalen Saunders. They will effectively replace free agents Marcus Davenport and David Onyemata, hoping to maintain last year’s sack rate that ranked fourth best. The veteran leadership at all three levels remains, with DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis, CB Marshon Lattimore, and S Tyrann Mathieu.

Key Injuries/Absences

Tennessee: CB Caleb Farley is beginning the season on the IR/PUP list with a back injury. RB Hassan Haskins is on the commissioner exempt list.

New Orleans: The aforementioned RB Alvin Kamara is beginning a three-game suspension for violating the personal conduct policy. WR Tre’Quan Smith will miss the matchup against the Titans with a groin injury. Rookie RB Kendre Miller is nursing a hamstring injury that could sideline him in Week 1.

Betting Blurbs

  • Vrabel Wins: The Titans have a winning ATS record in four of Mike Vrabel’s five seasons coaching the team.
  • Allen Wretched: Dennis Allen is 19-29-1 ATS in three seasons as a head coach for both the Raiders and Saints.

Season Outlook

We don’t see the offseason changes of great immediate help to the Titans, who open at No. 23 and have only a 31% chance to make the playoffs. New Orleans is our favorite in the NFC South with a 38% chance to win the division, though they’re only ranked No. 20 overall.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: New Orleans (61.9% win odds)

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7. San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: San Francisco -2.5

News & Notes

San Francisco seemed to chug along no matter the quarterback last season, though their NFC Championship loss left a sour taste with rookie QB Brock Purdy suffering a major elbow injury. He’s penciled in as the Week 1 starter, but as usual, it’s the supporting cast and coaching of Kyle Shanahan that makes the 49ers one of the NFC favorites.

Unbelievably, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin pulled off his 16th consecutive season with at least a .500 record even as rookie QB Kenny Pickett started most of the season under center. The Steelers will look to build on their young quarterback’s progress from the second half of the season.

San Francisco 49ers

The aforementioned Brock Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant to San Francisco’s long-term quarterback, going 7-0 as a starter before injuring his elbow early in the NFC Championship vs. Philly. Avoiding the much-feared Tommy John elbow procedure, Purdy is said to be on track for Week 1. The 49ers signed former first-round pick QB Sam Darnold just in case, a move of no-confidence in 2021 first-round pick QB Trey Lance before eventually trading Lance to Dallas. Dynamic RB Christian McCaffrey is an excellent security blanket, as fantasy managers can attest, gaining over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in 11 regular season games with the team after he was acquired from Carolina.

WR Deebo Samuel has a similarly well-rounded skillset, but was nagged by injury last season after an All-Pro season in 2021. Fellow WR Brandon Aiyuk was able to take the next step in his career while Samuel struggled, with his first 1,000 yard season, and TE George Kittle managed his fourth Pro Bowl. Beautiful play design and a hulking offensive line led by likely future Hall of Fame LT Trent Williams helped the 49ers to rank in the top 10 in rushing again last season.

A common consequence of success in the NFL is the loss of assistant coaches, as the 49ers have seen with defensive coordinators Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans leaving to become head coaches over the last three years. The 49ers replaced Ryans with veteran DC Steve Wilks, fresh off interim head coaching duty in Carolina. The employment of quarterback bargains allowed the 49ers to spend big in free agency on CB Chavarius Ward last year and DT Javon Hargrave this offseason. They still have elite players on rookie deals, including DE Nick Bosa (though he’s holding out for a new contract) and S Talanoa Hufanga, plus other high performers like DT Arik Armstead and LB Fred Warner. There was some turnover in the secondary, with new starter DB Isaiah Oliver, but this unit seemingly has everything it needs to defend its position as No. 1 in points and No. 2 in yards during 2022.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Not unexpectedly, the Steelers offense took its lumps last season with a rookie quarterback and young players at multiple other positions. Pittsburgh scored only 18.1 points per game, but expect some improvement now that Pickett has a year under his belt. He has a bevy of young weapons around him, including WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, RB Najee Harris, and TE Pat Freiermuth. A new left side of the offensive line could help, as LG Isaac Seumalo was signed away from Philadelphia and LT Broderick Jones was selected in the first round of the draft.

The Steelers defense also has reason to be optimistic, improving to 10th in points allowed despite star pass rusher T.J. Watt missing seven games last season. OLB Alex Highsmith had a breakout season (14.5 sacks) while Watt fought through injury, and DL Cameron Heyward continues to be a perennial Pro Bowler despite age. The team shored up middle linebacker and the defensive backfield with several new faces, including ILB Elandon Roberts and CB Patrick Peterson, while S Minkah Fitzpatrick still works as a takeaway machine.

Key Injuries/Absences

San Francisco: DE Nick Bosa has yet to report due to a contract dispute, and is very questionable to play in Week 1. PK Jake Moody could miss time with a quad injury. TE George Kittle has missed preseason practice with an undisclosed injury.

Pittsburgh: The team enters Week 1 relatively healthy, though DL Cameron Heyward and OG James Daniels did sit out some time during the preseason.

Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

San Francisco is second-highest-ranked team in the NFC and No. 5 overall with an 81% chance to make the playoffs and a 9.6% chance to win it all. We see Mike Tomlin’s record of going at least .500 each season remaining intact with an 8.8-8.2 record projection, but the Steelers have only a 40% chance of making the playoffs in the tough AFC North.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: San Francisco (55.3% win odds)

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8. Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Washington -7.0

News & Notes

It’s difficult to fathom how Arizona’s 2022 season could have gone worse, finishing 4-13 while also losing franchise QB Kyler Murray to a torn ACL. Murray’s ability to play at all this season remains up in the air as the HC Jonathan Gannon era begins.

Washington has more stability, turning to second-year QB Sam Howell after the failed Carson Wentz experiment. The personnel is largely the same, but the Commanders hope to get more out of their offense after hiring OC Eric Bieniemy away from the World Champion Chiefs.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona’s quarterback situation is nothing short of a debacle, as Murray recuperates from knee surgery and primary preseason starter Colt McCoy was released. That leaves August acquisition QB Josh Dobbs and rookie QB Clayton Tune as the options at quarterback.  The team lost veteran WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, though there remain some exciting weapons with RB James Conner, WRs Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore, and TE Zach Ertz.

The team’s decision to hire a defensive head coach in Jonathan Gannon would seem curious, but that side of the ball allowed the second-most points per game last season. Some of the defensive staples like LB Zaven Collins and S Budda Baker remain, but the team has seen massive turnover with pass rushers J.J. Watt, Markus Golden, and Zach Allen gone. As such, expect the five draftees on defense to play significant roles in 2023.

Washington Commanders

Washington liked what it saw from fifth-round pick Sam Howell enough to make him the 2023 starter. His development will be spurred by Bieniemy’s offense and an excellent trio of wideouts in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. The Commanders also have an interesting running back duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, and three new starting offensive linemen. Progress from last year’s 18.9 points per game would seemingly put Bieniemy in a better position to land the head coaching job he’s been overlooked for in recent years.

The defense is in better shape with HC Ron Rivera and DC Jack Del Rio leading a unit flush with former high draft choices. Former first-round picks DE Montez Sweat, DT Daron Payne, and DT Jonathan Allen kept the play of the front four at a high level last season, but former second overall draft choice DE Chase Young remains an enigma due to injuries. 2021 first-round pick LB Jamin Davis took a step forward, and the team hopes to improve its takeaway rate after using its top two draft choices on DBs Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin. Despite a difficult division, there’s no reason this level of talent can’t repeat last year’s top 10 finishes in points and yards allowed.

Key Injuries/Absences

Arizona: QB Kyler Murray is still recovering from ACL surgery, and doesn’t have a clear timetable to return. TE Zach Ertz is recovering from a knee injury and questionable for the start of the season. OG Pat Elflein has been placed on IR.

Washington: DE Chase Young hasn’t been cleared for contact due to a neck injury. WR Terry McLaurin could miss the start of the year due to turf toe. TE Logan Thomas has missed time with a calf injury, but could return in Week 1.

Betting Blurbs

  • Under the Rivera: Washington’s over record is 18-31-2 (37.3%) since Ron Rivera was hired in 2020.
  • No Cakewalk: Since 1985, Washington is 75-32 SU as favorites of at least six points, but they are only 41-66 (38.3%) ATS.

Season Outlook

The Cardinals open the season dead last in our predictive ratings, and have only a 6% chance of making the playoffs in Jonathan Gannon’s first season at the helm. Washington is No. 26 in our rankings, and they’re projected for only 6.5 wins with a tough NFC East schedule.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Washington (70.6% win odds)

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9. Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Baltimore -9.5

News & Notes

There were big, exciting offseason developments for both Houston and Baltimore. The Texans brought home former star linebacker DeMeco Ryans to be head coach, and used top draft choices on QB C.J. Stroud and DE Will Anderson Jr. The Ravens agreed to a long-awaited extension with QB Lamar Jackson, hired OC Todd Monken, and added new offensive weapons.

Houston Texans

Houston has had plenty of recent problems with a total of 11 wins over the last three seasons, and are now employing their fifth head coach since 2020. The Texans have been an organization completely lacking stability, but hope the duo of Ryans and Stroud are there for the long term. With the trade of WR Brandin Cooks, Stroud will try to grow with the young WR duo of Nico Collins and John Metchie, to go with veteran Robert Woods and rookie Tank Dell. The team also signed TE Dalton Schultz away from Dallas, and added former Buffalo RB Devin Singletary as a complement to young RB Dameon Pierce’s bruising style. Ryans, a former assistant in San Francisco, brought with him former 49ers offensive assistant Bobby Slowik to run the offense.

The Texans showed aggressiveness not only in the draft by trading up for Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall, but also in the free agent market by signing starters DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Cory Littleton, and S Jimmie Ward. The defense was acclaimed for playing hard under Lovie Smith last season in spite of allowing the third most yards in the NFL, and have a few more building blocks as holdovers in DE Jonathan Greenard, CB Derek Stingley Jr., and S Jalen Pitre.

Baltimore Ravens

The seemingly wounded relationship between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens was repaired with a contract extension during the offseason, and the team didn’t stop there with the offensive moves.  OC Todd Monken is expected to add some creativity to the offense, and has a lot to work with after Baltimore signed WR Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted WR Zay Flowers. RB J.K. Dobbins is one more year removed from knee surgery and go-to TE Mark Andrews is still around, so Jackson should feel less pressure to put the team on his back as a runner and hopefully play more than the 12 games that he’s seen in each of the last two seasons.

Baltimore adjusted nicely to new DC Mike Macdonald last season, ranking third in points and sixth in yards allowed. They have gotten slightly younger in the offseason, moving on from former stars Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Marcus Peters. Something had to give after the Ravens spent resources on the contracts of Jackson and LB Roquan Smith. The team hopes for improvement from OLBs Odafe Oweh and Tyus Bowser to help the pass rush, while new CB Rock Ya-Sin could help if he’s able to stay healthy. The remainder of the secondary doesn’t lack for talent with CB Marlon Humphrey, S Marcus Williams, and S Kyle Hamilton. Early injuries to Bowser and Humphrey do complicate things.

Key Injuries/Absences

Houston: OT Tytus Howard could miss Week 1 with a hand injury. OG Kenyon Green (shoulder) was placed on IR. OC Scott Quessenberry is out for the year with a torn ACL.

Baltimore: TE Mark Andrews missed time in the preseason with an undisclosed injury, and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Week 1. LB Tyus Bowser is on the reserve/non-football injury list with a knee injury. CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) will likely miss Week 1. CB Trayvon Mullen is out for the year following toe surgery.

Betting Blurbs

  • Houston’s Problems: The Texans have the worst record in the NFL since 2020 at 11-38-1, though they are 22-27-1 ATS.
  • Harbaugh’s Week 1 Dominance: John Harbaugh’s Ravens are 11-4 SU and ATS in Week 1 since he was hired in 2008. His last five Week 1 wins were by an average margin of 32 points.

Season Outlook

We see Houston’s losing continuing this season. ranked No. 31 overall with only a 15% chance of making the playoffs. Baltimore has a solid chance of rebounding, ranked No. 10 with a 58% chance of making the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Baltimore (77.0% win odds)

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10. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Chicago -1.0

News & Notes

Aaron Rodgers has been the Packers starting quarterback for the last 15 seasons, but former first-round pick QB Jordan Love is set to take the reins in 2023.

Chicago has their long-term starter in QB Justin Fields as he embarks on his third season, and have added some help with No. 1 WR D.J. Moore and first-round RT Darnell Wright.

Green Bay Packers

Drafted in 2020, Jordan Love has made only one start in the NFL. He’s seen mixed results in 10 appearances, as Packers fans wait with bated breath. The team’s backfield is as good as any, as RB Aaron Jones returned alongside the powerful RB A.J. Dillon for a team that averaged a solid 4.6 yards per carry last season. Love’s ability to throw down the field could determine if they’re able to keep up that pace, and the receiving weapons will be in development mode alongside him. 2022 draftees WR Christian Watson and WR Romeo Doubs showed flashes last season, and the team hopes rookies WR Jayden Reed, TE Luke Musgrove, and TE Tucker Kraft will make a similar transition.

While the offense finds its footing, the hope is that the defense takes a step forward after finishing 16th in points and yards allowed last season. The front seven has a wealth of talented youths like former first-round picks OLB Rashan Gary, LB Quay Walker, and DE Devonte Wyatt still on the upswing, while DE Kenny Clark, OLB Preston Smith, and LB De’Vondre Campbell are well-established. An inability to improve from their 15th place finish in sack rate last season would be discouraging. The team added athletic first-round pass rusher Lukas Van Ness, and the secondary remains comfortable with Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes, and Darnell Savage.

Chicago Bears

QB Justin Fields is 5-20 as Chicago’s starter, but the team saw enough progress last season to continue building around him following a season where his receiving weapons were quite limited. They traded for WR Chase Claypool last year and added WR D.J. Moore. With the return of WR Darnell Mooney from injury and the developing TE Cole Kmet plus a reworked right side of the offensive line, there’s little excuse for Fields to not take a giant leap as a passer.

The Bears were the most efficient running team in football last year, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Fueled by Fields’ 7.1 yards per carry, the team will move to RB Khalil Herbert as the likely starter in the backfield and former Panther RB D’Onta Foreman as his backup, along with rookie RB Roschon Johnson (who served as Bijan Robinson’s backup at Texas).

The defense has been in the business of trading franchise players recently, most notably Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith, so it should come as no surprise that the Bears ranked dead last in points allowed last season (27.2). The team spent big money on EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, ILB Tremaine Edmunds, LB T.J. Edwards, and DE DeMarcus Walker while also using seven draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. Strong rookie performances from DBs Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker last year should earn the current Bears regime the benefit of the doubt in those decisions, but that doesn’t mean improvement will be easy in the immediate future.

Key Injuries/Absences

Green Bay: CB Eric Stokes is out with a Lisfranc foot injury. WR Romeo Doubs has missed practice time with a hamstring injury, and his Week 1 status is uncertain.

Chicago: OL Teven Jenkins was placed on IR with a leg injury.

Betting Blurbs

  • Flourishing LaFleur: Green Bay has the second best ATS record in the league since HC Matt LaFleur took over in 2019 at 42-29 (59.2%).
  • Green Bay Owns Chicago: The Packers have won and covered eight consecutive head-to-head matchups vs. Chicago. Green Bay has also won 23 of the last 26 matchups.

Season Outlook

Without Rodgers, Green Bay opens the year ranked No. 21 with only a 37% chance of making the playoffs. We have the Bears slightly behind them at No. 24, with 36% odds to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Chicago (56.6% win odds)

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11. Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Denver -4.0

News & Notes

These AFC West rivals are starting new eras of sorts. The Raiders moved on from Derek Carr at the end of last season and now have Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, if healthy. Denver still employs QB Russell Wilson, but hired formed Saints head coach Sean Payton to help get Wilson’s career back on track after a disastrous first season with the Broncos.

Las Vegas Raiders

As a former backup under HC Josh McDaniels in New England, Jimmy Garoppolo was seen as a prime fit for the Raiders heading into free agency. The Raiders still have some options should Garoppolo struggle to get over the hump from the foot injury suffered last season. Still, he has some impressive weapons if healthy, including RB Josh Jacobs, WR Davante Adams, and newcomer WR Jakobi Meyers. Vegas was far from efficient passing the ball last season (61.3% completion rate), though that might be more of a symptom of McDaniels’ system and injuries than the performance of the departed Derek Carr.

Incredibly, it’s been over 20 years since the Raiders defense ranked in the top half of the league in points allowed. They finished in the bottom 10 for the fifth straight season in 2022 after years of failed draft picks. DC Patrick Graham still has his work cut out for him, but the team has strength up front with DEs Maxx Crosby, Chandler Jones, and first-round rookie Tyree Wilson. The Raiders still needs more consistent pressure, ranking third-worst in sack rate last season, though the coverage in the secondary didn’t help. They finished with the second-worst interception rate in the league, and have totally rebuilt the secondary with new starters Duke Shelley, David Long Jr., and Marcus Epps.

Denver Broncos

Anyone who witnessed Russell Wilson’s struggles last season knows that Sean Payton has a tall task ahead. The 34-year-old quarterback posted career-worsts in completion rate (60.5%) and touchdown passes (16) while going 4-11 as the starter. He was also sacked more than any quarterback (55), though a high sack rate was a feature of his game in Seattle, as well. The Broncos did try to help by signing RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers for big money. The other weapons are also enviable, with WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, second-round rookie WR Marvin Mims, and second-year tight end Greg Dulcich. RB Javonte Williams is also working his way back from knee surgery, though the team has the luxury of working him back slowly after signing former Bengal RB Samaje Perine.

Denver brought back former head coach Vance Joseph to run the defense following the departure of DC Ejiro Evero. Coming from Arizona, Joseph brought with him young DE Zach Allen, though Dre’Mont Jones could be a big loss. OLB Randy Gregory needs to get back on track after an injury-plagued season, with a defense that was seventh-worst in sack rate last season. An excellent secondary has made up for some of the deficiencies, with a pair of elite players in CB Patrick Surtain and S Justin Simmons. Joseph will guide what was the clear strength of the team last season, ranking 12th in points allowed and eighth in yards.

Key Injuries/Absences

Las Vegas: The Raiders have no major injuries entering the season.

Denver: WR Tim Patrick was placed on IR with a torn Achilles. WR Jerry Jeudy could miss the start of the season with a hamstring injury. RB Javonte Williams could be worked back slowly after knee surgery last year. LB Baron Browning (knee) will miss the start of the season. CB K’Waun Williams was placed on IR following ankle surgery.

Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

The Raiders don’t have great odds to make the playoffs at only 15%, opening the year ranked No. 25. Sean Payton’s chances of bringing Denver back to the playoffs aren’t much better at 28%, ranked No. 18 to begin the season.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Denver (65.9% win odds)

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12. Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Philadelphia -3.5

News & Notes

Philadelphia came up just short in the Super Bowl, but their goals haven’t changed in 2023. The team did lose both coordinators to head coaching jobs, but QB Jalen Hurts leads the team with a new contract in tow. The Patriots had their second losing season in three years, as QB Mac Jones approaches what could be a make-or-break year with the help of new OC Bill O’Brien.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philly’s offense was elite in nearly every facet last season, including second in points and third in yards. Jalen Hurts’ ascension in three seasons has been remarkable, with a completion rate last season (66.5%) that was more than 14% better than his rookie campaign. The addition of WR A.J. Brown to DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert made all the difference, though an elite offensive line didn’t hurt. The Eagles have only one change on the line, replacing veteran OG Isaac Seumalo with rookie third rounder Tyler Steen. They’re also set to take more of a committee approach at running back after refusing to pay RB Miles Sanders, picking up both D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny to join Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott.

A feature in Philadelphia’s recent Super Bowl runs has been their pass rush depth. They ranked tops in the league with an 11.1% sack rate last season, but that high standard will be challenged with the loss of superstar DT Javon Hargrave. The team still has other prominent pass rushers like Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, and Haason Reddick, and also spent a first-round pick on former Georgia DT Jalen Carter. The Eagles were able to re-sign CB James Bradberry, but lost starting safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps. They hope former Steeler Terrell Edmunds and rookie Sydney Brown can offset the losses.

New England Patriots

QB Mac Jones was arguably the most impressive player in the 2021 rookie quarterback class after one season, but took a giant step back last year (14/11 TD/INT, 36.2 QBR) with the Patriots losing OC Josh McDaniels and replacing him with Matt Patricia, who had previously been a defensive coach in his earlier tenure in New England. New OC Bill O’Brien comes over from Alabama, as Jones did two years ago, though the duo didn’t have any overlap with the Crimson Tide. Still, his extensive experience running NFL offenses should be welcome. The Patriots received criticism for failing to add a true No. 1 wideout to replace Jakobi Meyers, though they did add WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, and a pair of late-round wideouts. RB Rhamondre Stevenson could be set for an even bigger workload after the team allowed Damien Harris to leave in free agency, though the team added former Cowboys star RB Ezekiel Elliott to help.

The defense continued to keep the Patriots in games last season, ranking 11th in points allowed and ninth in yards. The excellent pass rush led by DE Matthew Judon and DE Josh Uche will continue, though there is some nervousness in the secondary after the retirement of S Devin McCourty, a starter since 2010. New England still has depth in that area, especially if first-round CB Christian Gonzalez pans out.

Key Injuries/Absences

Philadelphia: OLB Haason Reddick suffered a torn ligament in his thumb, but should be ready for Week 1. CB Zach McPhearson is out for the year with a torn Achilles.

New England: CB Isaiah Bolden (neck) was placed on injured reserve. DE Trey Flowers was placed on the reserve/PUP list. TE Mike Gesicki’s status is up in the air due to a shoulder injury. CB Jack Jones could be facing a suspension due to an off-field incident.

Betting Blurbs

  • Belichick Has You Covered: The Patriots are an incredible 230-172-10 (57.0%) ATS since hiring Belichick in 2000.
  • No ATS Darlings: Despite back-to-back winning seasons and a Super Bowl appearance, Nick Sirianni’s Eagles are only 18-19-1 ATS over the last two seasons.

Season Outlook

We still think Philly is special as the top-ranked team in the NFC and No. 3 overall. They have a 11% chance to win the Super Bowl, second to the Chiefs. Bill Belichick’s effort to rebuild is still a work in progress, and we give the Pats only a 24% chance to make the playoffs despite being ranked No. 17, because of a really tough schedule that starts against the NFC Champs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Philadelphia (59.6% win odds)

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13. Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: LA Chargers -3.0

News & Notes

This Week 1 matchup features two 2022 playoff teams possibly on the cusp of even bigger things. Miami approaches training camp with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and new DC Vic Fangio, while the Chargers hired former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore to get the offense running more explosively.

Miami Dolphins

QB Tua Tagovailoa had a breakout 2022 season with the additions of HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill, ranking tops in the league in TD%, yards per attempt, and QB Rating. Unfortunately, he missed significant time due to concussions, including the team’s Wild Card Round loss to Buffalo. He looks to get back on track with a healthy offensive line and a strong crop of weapons, with former Jet WR Braxton Berrios joining Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Miami hired Vic Fangio to run the defense after a disappointing season, finishing 24th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed. The performance was not for lack of talent, and the team added former All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey to big names DT Christian Wilkins, OLB Bradley Chubb, and CB Xavien Howard during the offseason. Fangio and Ramsey could help get the secondary in check, which ranked near the bottom of the league in pass yards allowed and interception rate last season. Unfortunately, Ramsey suffered a preseason knee injury, and should miss the early part of the year.

Los Angeles Chargers

After suffering a jaw-dropping comeback defeat to the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round, the pressure is on HC Brandon Staley and the Chargers in 2023. That effort is reflected in their change at offensive coordinator, even as the Chargers had the second-highest pass percentage in the NFL last season (65.1%) with QB Justin Herbert under center. The team addressed their third wideout spot by drafting TCU star Quentin Johnston, as Keenan Allen is now in his early 30’s. Allen and teammate Mike Williams both missed time to injury last season, along with LT Rashawn Slater. With all the injuries, including some nagging Herbert, it wasn’t a surprise to see the quarterback fail to reach the 5,000 yard and 30 touchdown marks that he reached in 2021. RB Austin Ekeler remains in search of a long-term contract, but he’s the perfect type of receiving back if Moore continues to pass at such a high rate.

The Chargers also made a change at defensive coordinator, relieving Renaldo Hill and promoting Derrick Ansley from defensive backs coach. The expectations are high despite finishing 23rd in points allowed last season, though the team needs better health from DE Joey Bosa, who played only five games last season. OLB Khalil Mack remains productive, making his seventh Pro Bowl last season. LA tried to remedy a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry allowed by signing long-time Viking LB Eric Kendricks, and they also spent second- and third-round picks at linebacker. The team is still waiting on high-priced CB J.C. Jackson to contribute after missing most of his first season with the team to injury, and S Derwin James is a staple with his third Pro Bowl in five years last season.

Key Injuries/Absences

Miami: CB Jalen Ramsey was placed on IR after surgery for a torn mensicus. RB Jeffrey Wilson Jr. was also placed on IR with an abdominal injury. RB Devon Achane has also been sidelined in the preseason with a shoulder injury. OG Robert Jones is on the IR with a knee injury. LT Terron Armstead has a leg injury, and his status for Week 1 is unknown.

LA Chargers: WR Jalen Guyton is on the reserve/PUP list with a knee injury.

Betting Blurbs

  • Staley is Profitable: Brandon Staley’s Chargers are 19-15-1 ATS since he became head coach in 2021.
  • Road-Scoring Warriors: Miami had a league-best 8-2 over record in road games last season.

Season Outlook

Miami is nearly a toss-up to make the playoffs at 49% despite their No. 8 overall ranking playing out of a tough AFC East. The Chargers are just below them at No. 9, but have a 49% chance to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: LA Chargers (58.9% win odds)

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14. Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Seattle -5.5

News & Notes

Just one year after winning the Super Bowl, the Rams purged much of their roster and coaching staff as they set forth on a rebuild. However, HC Sean McVay did return after flirting with sitting out this season, and with him are the star trio of QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and DT Aaron Donald, who all missed missing time last season.

Unlike the Rams, the rival Seahawks had a wealth of draft picks and cap space to cash in after trading Russell Wilson last offseason. HC Pete Carroll hopes to make another run, now in his 14th season with Seattle going on age 72.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams offense still has a lot of familiar faces, including Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, RB Cam Akers, TE Tyler Higbee, and WR Van Jefferson. The offensive line remains a work in progress, with few known entities. The team allowed the second-highest sack rate last season, and will need to improve to have any chance of competing considering Stafford’s age and injury history.

Aaron Donald is the only significant contributor from the Rams Super Bowl defense that’s still around, and the team will by relying on a significant number of young players and newcomers. DC Raheem Morris still calls the shots, and there are a few other recent holdovers like LB Ernest Jones and CB Cobie Durant, but this is largely a list of unknown names trying to mold together.

Seattle Seahawks

QB Geno Smith was a more than adequate replacement for Russell Wilson last season, and was rewarded with a contract extension. The team added some youthful weapons to help, selecting WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and RB Zach Charbonnet in the second round to complement RB Kenneth Walker III, WR DK Metcalf, and WR Tyler Lockett. That follows a 2022 draft in which Seattle added new starting offensive tackles, with their sights set on continuing to be the top 10 scoring offense they were last season.

What’s old is new again for Seattle on defense, bringing back former stars DT Jarran Reed and ILB Bobby Wagner in free agency. Their biggest free agent contract went to former Bronco DT Dre’Mont Jones, and the team also spent money on S Julian Love. First-round CB Devon Witherspoon adds to one of the youngest and most talented cornerback groups in the league with Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, while LB Jordyn Brooks returns as the leading tackler and S Quandre Diggs has been to three straight Pro Bowls. The unit that ranked eighth-worst in points allowed and fifth worst in yards allowed has a lot more to work with this time around.

Key Injuries/Absences

LA Rams: WR Cooper Kupp missed time in training camp due to a hamstring injury and had a setback recently, putting his early season availability in doubt.

Seattle: CB Devon Witherspoon is recovering from a hamstring injury, with his status for Week 1 in question. S Jamal Adams played only one game last season due to a major quad injury, and has already been ruled out for the matchup vs. the Rams. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba underwent wrist surgery, but could be ready for the start of the season.

Betting Blurbs

Season Outlook

The changes in LA could lead to a long season for the Rams with the defensive question marks, with only a 20% chance to make the playoffs and ranked No. 28. Seattle has a more favorable 52% chance to be playoff-bound, ranked No. 15.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Seattle (68.6% win odds)

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15. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: Dallas -4.0

News & Notes

HC Mike McCarthy enters his fourth season in Dallas after another disappointing playoff defeat. He took matters into his own hands after last season, firing OC Kellen Moore and adding offensive play calling to his own responsibilities.

On the other hand, the Giants exceeded expectations last season in HC Brian Daboll’s first year. They look to run it back and improve on last season, after signing QB Daniel Jones to a long-term deal.

Dallas Cowboys

Mike McCarthy is expected to contribute more conservative play calling for a team that had the ninth highest running play percentage last season (47.3%) and finished fourth in points. RB Tony Pollard is expected to take the reins as the primary running back after a big season a year ago splitting time with Ezekiel Elliott. The team also added more downfield help for QB Dak Prescott with veteran WR Brandin Cooks, and WR Michael Gallup is one more year removed from ACL surgery. WR CeeDee Lamb is also coming off a breakout year as the No. 1 wideout, when he contributed 107 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns.

DC Dan Quinn has been a popular head coaching candidate in the last two offseasons, but he’s stuck around. The Cowboys allowed the fifth most points in the league before his arrival last year, but have now ranked top 10 in points allowed in back-to-back seasons. It should be noted that improvement is in conjunction with the arrival of LB Micah Parsons, who has 26.5 sacks in two All-Pro seasons. The team hopes DE DeMarcus Lawrence can be more helpful this season after recording only six sacks in 2022, and they also selected Michigan DT Maz Smith in the first round to help plug the run. Dallas was tops in takeaways last season despite CB Trevon Diggs’ interception regression, and have added former Defensive Player of the Year CB Stephon Gilmore.

New York Giants

New York had their first winning season since 2016, making the playoffs as they got Daniel Jones and the offense on the right track. The team’s biggest personnel move was the addition of TE Darren Waller, who has missed significant time in Las Vegas over the last two years to injuries. He has the potential to be the top receiver if he can stay on the field, with a non-descript group led by Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell and rookie Jalin Hyatt at wideout. RB Saquon Barkley was franchise tagged, with the assumption that he will play on the tag after making the Pro Bowl last year. There’s still a lot of room for improvement from an offense that ranked 18th in scoring (21.2 points) last season.

The defense also ranked in the bottom half of the league last season, but showed flashes in games with former Ravens DC Don Martindale. The team expects more from DE Leonard Williams and OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux this season, as they struggled to get to the quarterback beyond DT Dexter Lawrence’s 7.5 sacks. Key additions to the unit include DT A’Shawn Robinson, LB Bobby Okereke, S Bobby McCain, and first-round CB Deonte Banks.

Key Injuries/Absences

Dallas: The Cowboys enter the season without any major injuries.

NY Giants: WR Wan’Dale Robinson hopes to be ready for Week 1 after missing the preseason with a knee injury. CB Aaron Robinson is out with a knee injury.

Betting Blurbs

  • How Bout Them Cowboys: Dallas has dominated the Giants head-to-head since 2017, 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS.
  • Giant Money Makers: The Giants had the best ATS record in the NFL last season at 14-5.

Season Outlook

The Cowboys open the year ranked No. 6 in our predictive ratings and behind the Eagles with a 37% chance to win the NFC East and a 70% chance to make the playoffs. New York’s chance of returning to the playoffs isn’t as good at 33%, and they’re near the middle in our rankings at No. 19.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Dallas (59.1% win odds)

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16. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Game Time: Monday, Sept. 11 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

Point Spread: Buffalo -2.5

News & Notes

The highly anticipated start to QB Aaron Rodgers’ Jets career officially kicks off on Monday Night Football against the rival Bills. Like last season, Buffalo has a realistic Super Bowl goal, but must do so with DC Leslie Frazier on hiatus for the year.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills finished 2022 as our highest-rated team, though they did struggle down the stretch and finished disappointingly vs. Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional Round. QB Josh Allen is hoping to get back on track after some bumps and bruises during the second half of the season, with the added weapons of RB Damien Harris, WR Trent Sherfield, and rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. Second-year RB James Cook is likely to lead a backfield that ranked third in yards per carry (5.1) last season. WR Stefon Diggs is likely to remain Allen’s top receiver after three straight Pro Bowl appearances with Buffalo.

The aforementioned loss of Frazier as the defensive coordinator puts the pressure on HC Sean McDermott as the defensive play caller, with a talented defense that ranked fourth in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed last season. The eventual return of OLB Von Miller from a knee injury and addition of former Rams teammate Leonard Floyd should scare opposing quarterbacks, not to mention the push up front from DE Greg Rousseau and DT Ed Oliver. There’s no getting past the big loss of MLB Tremaine Edmunds, who cashed in with Chicago, but young LBs Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams hope to lessen the blow. The team would love better health from DBs Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer in the secondary, an area that opposing offenses tried to expose last season.

New York Jets

Much like Tom Brady did with the Bucs three years ago, Aaron Rodgers is out to prove the skeptics wrong with a new team after a sub-par season in Green Bay last year. He has a lot of help, including 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Garrett Wilson, and former Packers teammates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. The Jets even hired failed Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who worked with Rodgers in Green Bay. Former Vikings star RB Dalvin Cook was signed to spell RB Breece Hall as he works his way back from knee surgery.

No matter the offensive improvement, the defense is likely to remain the strength of the squad with elite talent at all three levels. DT Quinnen Williams recently received a lucrative contract extension, while veterans DE Carl Lawson and MLB C.J. Mosley return in this very capable front seven. With the third fewest takeaways last season, the Jets addressed safety with veteran Adrian Amos, adding to the excellent cornerback trio of Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II.

Key Injuries/Absences

Buffalo: OLB Von Miller will miss at least the first four games of the season as he recovers from knee surgery. OG Connor McGovern is uncertain due to a knee injury. RB Nyheim Hines is out for the year with a torn ACL.

NY Jets: RB Breece Hall is expected to be active following knee surgery, but the team could be cautious with his snaps. WR Corey Davis opted to retire late in training camp.

Betting Blurbs

  • Dollar Bills: Since Sean McDermott’s hiring in 2017, the Bills have the second-best ATS record in the NFL at 55-44-7 (55.6%).
  • Jets Fail to Takeoff: The Jets have five consecutive losing ATS seasons. During that time, they have the worst ATS record in the NFL at 32-49-1 (39.5%).

Season Outlook

The Bills are our No. 2 ranked team at the start of 2023, with a 43% chance to win the tough AFC East and a 10% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Jets have improved to No. 7, though a difficult schedule and tough AFC gives them only a 51% chance to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

Model Pick: Buffalo (51.9% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
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Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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