Three NFL Week 10 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 10 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

November 8, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

Hitting an NFL Week 10 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

In this article, we make our three favorite Week 10 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units
2023 Season: 9-18 for -4.8 units

Only two underdogs out of 14 total games won outright in Week 9, so in general it wasn’t a week for the dogs. We didn’t pick either of them and went 0-3, though two of our picks came painfully close. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

• Tampa Bay (+130) had a late lead, but Houston scored with six seconds remaining in the game to steal our best chance at a score, winning 39-37.
• Tennessee (+130) also had a late lead, but Pittsburgh scored to go ahead 20-16 with four minutes left, and the Titans came up just short with an interception at the goal line at the end of the game.
• Arizona (+296) was pretty close to dead at kickoff, as all the QB factors went against us as the week went on. Deshaun Watson was cleared to play while Kyler Murray was not, and the game ended 27-0.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 10, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 10 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Green Bay Packers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +151
Point Spread: +3

This is a playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Pittsburgh can’t keep getting away with it, can they? The Steelers have been out-gained in terms of yardage in all eight games so far this year, and by a total of 790 yards for the season. They’ve also been outscored on the season.

Yet they are 5-3 overall, thanks to going 5-0 in one-score games.

The Steelers’ positive turnover margin is at an extreme end for a team that isn’t good on offense or making teams play from far behind. So we’ll take the Packers, gambling that most teams that appear to have the magical luck sauce at the halfway point of the season tend to regress.

Denver Broncos (at Buffalo Bills)

Moneyline: +306
Point Spread: +7.5

This is our top playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Buffalo is 5-4 despite playing a below-average schedule in terms of opponent quality. While QB Josh Allen will catch the heat, it’s actually the defense that is in decline after some key injuries.

Buffalo’s best games by yards allowed are still their first three games of the year. Since then, they’ve given up 374 yards and nearly 22 first downs per game.

This Bills team also hasn’t had its bye week yet, and has been on the struggle bus since their London trip. Since then, they’ve survived against the Giants, allowed the Patriots to go on a late game-winning drive, came within a Hail Mary attempt of losing to the Bucs, and trailed the Bengals all game.

Meanwhile, Denver has rebounded after a very rough start defensively, and just held Kansas City to under 300 yards in their last win before their bye week. These two teams trending in different directions, so we’ll take the underdog odds of a big upset here.

Washington Commanders (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +226
Point Spread: +6

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

QB Sam Howell of Washington has made great strides in the last two weeks in terms of getting the ball out quicker, and that improvement has helped the Washington offense, as they nearly beat Philadelphia (scoring 31 points) and then won at New England.

Washington is a pass-heavy team, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in rush attempts, but reducing the number of sacks has allowed the offense to become more efficient. Some of that is reflected in Antonio Gibson having a season-high 5 catches each of the last two weeks, as Howell has been more willing to check down to the receiving back.

That growth is also reflected in these stats, as Howell struggled early in the season with pressure, but excelled against the blitz in his last game.

Howell’s ability to make big throws gives Washington a fighting chance against a Seattle team that has been inconsistent on offense, including three games with 13 or fewer first downs.

With Seattle also ranking near the bottom of the league in first downs allowed, we see some value on Washington as a live passing underdog.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No

NFL Week 10 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 10 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 10 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.