Three NFL Week 11 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 11 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

November 15, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 11 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 11 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward. We anticipate that, viewed through the lens of risk versus reward, these choices will prove to be profitable bets in the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for +1.1 units
2023 Season: 10-20 for -3.7 units

We hit a big upset pick last week, with a bit of fortune, but came close in two others that went the other way. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

• Green Bay (+151) came close against Pittsburgh, but a controversial pass incompletion (that could have been ruled a backwards lateral and Packers TD) and two late interceptions near the Steelers goal led to a 23-19 loss.
• Denver (+306) won at Buffalo 24-22, getting a second-chance at a late field goal after the Bills had too many men on the field.
• Washington (+296) scored a touchdown to tie with under a minute left, but then Seattle won on a closing field goal, 29-26.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 11, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 11 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Arizona Cardinals (at Houston Texans)

Moneyline: +185
Point Spread: +5

This is our highest-rated playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

With Kyler Murray returning as the quarterback for Arizona, the team is expected to perform at an improved level compared to their overall season statistics. Although Houston has demonstrated strong performances and a knack for winning close contests, their last two games were decided in the final moments.

The Texans boast a 5-1 ATS record when playing as underdogs this season. However, their record stands at 1-2 in SU victories and 0-3 ATS when favored, a trend that includes their recent loss to Carolina three weeks ago.

The public is also heavily on the Texans, as our public pick data is showing 92% are picking Houston to win in game winner pools, a really high number for a team favored by 4 points. Of our 15 largest differences so far this year between actual win odds and pick popularity, the underdog has won 7 outright.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Kansas City Chiefs)

Moneyline: +125
Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Eagles and Chiefs face off in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, and we see some value on the underdog Eagles on the road. Kansas City’s offense has been struggling, and they have not had good wide receiver play all year. Kansas City hasn’t scored in the second half of either of the last two games, and now ranks 13th in points scored.

The Chiefs’ defense has played really well, but the Eagles’ running game is a potential area of advantage, as the Chiefs rank relatively lowest in yards allowed per rush (27th).

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)

Moneyline: -105
Point Spread: +1

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Okay, we’ll finally give in on Pittsburgh, at least for this week, with the news that Deshaun Watson is done for the year for Cleveland and the Browns have announced they will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Pittsburgh has notably won six games this year while being outgained in yards in every game. But the rushing attack has been emerging, as Pittsburgh’s backfield duo of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have helped rack up over 360 rushing yards in the last two wins.

Over the last three years, Pittsburgh is 15-14 SU and 17-11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS against Cleveland as an underdog in that span.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 11 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 11 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.