Three NFL Week 17 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 17 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

December 27, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 17 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 17 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units
2023 Season: 15-33 for -8.8 units

In a season where our close-game luck has been abysmal, Week 16 managed to take it to another level. The upset picks went 0-3, but two of them had the lead and the other was tied at the two-minute warning.

All three lost, by a combined 8 points, to drop us to 9-23 in one-score upset pick games this year. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

• Carolina (+194) came back to tie it at 30-30, but allowed Green Bay to go on a drive and kick a game-winning field goal with 22 seconds left.
• Tennessee (+127) took a 17-13 lead with just over three minutes left, but Seattle scored a TD on a late drive and then got a key sack as the Titans were trying to get in field goal range in the final seconds.
• Washington (+146) benched QB Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett, who led a 20-point comeback to take the lead with just under five minutes left, but the Jets went on a drive inside the two-minute warning that ended with a 54-yard game-winning field goal.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 17, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 17 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Carolina Panthers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Moneyline: +230
Point Spread: +6.5

This is a playable moneyline model pick and spread pick for Week 17.

Carolina put up their season-high in points and yards last week, but came up just short in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay. The Panthers have now out-gained their opponents in three straight games.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a downward trend and QB Trevor Lawrence is battling through injuries. The team has lost four straight after looking like a lock to make the playoffs, including losing the last two games by more than two touchdowns to Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

The Jags have shown they can not effectively run the ball (no games of 100+ rushing yards in their last five, and averaging 3.6 yards per rush for the year), their pass defense is a bottom 10 ranked unit, and they rank 29th in passing yards allowed.

New Orleans Saints (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Moneyline: +139
Point Spread: +3

This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 17.

The Bucs can clinch the division with a win at home against the Saints, but this has been a division where the underdogs have prevailed.

A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. (The Bucs won in New Orleans back in Week 4, 26-9.)

In this year’s NFC South, the Falcons have already won at Tampa Bay but then lost at home in the return match, when Atlanta had a chance to take control of the division.

So we’ll take the points in this series where home field hasn’t appeared to mean much. The home team is 17-27 ATS since 2002, and the Saints are 14-7 SU and ATS in Tampa over their last 21 trips.

Green Bay Packers (at Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +113
Point Spread: +2.5

This is not a playable model pick (we only have two playable moneyline underdog picks this week so far), but a lean based on roster news and trends.

First, this divisional matchup is another case of a home team going for the season sweep, as Minnesota won at Green Bay early in the year. We’ve seen historical value on the road teams, particularly when they are underdogs, in these cases.

Second, Minnesota continues to battle injuries, and just lost TE T.J. Hockenson for the season. QB Nick Mullens appears to be a turnover machine, with six picks thrown in his last two starts.

The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a game where they put up 33 points without WRs Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. They finally got RB Aaron Jones back last week, and could be healthier on offense this week.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

It’s hard to be profitable going 9-23 in close games, and 2023 has not been kind to us in that regard. To show the chasm and impact of the close losses, our upset picks this year are 24-21-3 ATS against closing point spreads, but only 15-33 SU.

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes
13	PHI	SF	125	134	L 42-19	No
13	CAR	TB	200	167	L 21-18	Yes
13	ARI	PIT	220	235	W 24-10	No
14	CHI	DET	150	140	W 28-13	Yes
14	LAR	BAL	270	280	L 37-31	No
14	DEN	LAC	125	143	W 24-7	No
15	WAS	LAR	246	255	L 28-20	No
15	CHI	CLE	154	129	L 20-17	Yes
15	NYG	NO	219	222	L 24-6	No
16	CAR	GB	194	165	L 33-30	Yes
16	TEN	SEA	127	135	L 20-17	No
16	WAS	NYJ	146	141	L 30-28	Yes

NFL Week 17 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 17 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 17 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.