Three NFL Week 3 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

These upset picks for NFL Week 3 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

September 20, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

Hitting an NFL Week 3 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

Thus begins our quest to identify which underdogs will truly have that dog in them during NFL Week 3. In this article, we pick our three favorite NFL Week 3 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be longshots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for some important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units
2023 Season: 1-5 for -3.8 units

The picks are off to a rough start in 2023, though partly on account of some bad breaks, such as a negative-5 total turnover differential. One silver lining is that all six upset picks that we’ve posted so far have gotten closing line value by kickoff time.

We’ll make sure to put that on a banner. In the meantime we want some more wins.

• Chicago (+129) lost to Tampa Bay 27-17, and allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for over 300 yards. Based on news breaking just this week, it seems like all may not be well behind the scenes in Chicagoland.
• Carolina (+159) played valiantly on defense, but the offense again struggled mightily in a 20-17 loss to the Saints.
• New England (+127) again couldn’t finish off a late comeback bid, losing 24-17 to Miami after getting stopped just short on fourth down late in Miami territory.

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 3, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 3 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Los Angeles Rams (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Moneyline: +120
Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline and borderline playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Bengals are dealing with Joe Burrow’s injury. This line already dropped dramatically on Sunday night, but we still see value in considering the Rams.

Maybe Burrow is back for Monday Night Football. But even if he does play after suffering another setback, he certainly doesn’t seem 100% this year. In two games so far, Burrow is averaging 4.2 yards per pass and completing only 57% of his passes. The Bengals rank 31st in net yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, the Rams rank 2nd in total yards after two games, as Matthew Stafford is healthy and the offense is churning even without WR Cooper Kupp.

If Burrow can’t go, the Bengals QB will likely be Jake Browning, a 27-year old undrafted free agent who has never started an NFL game or even completed a pass.

So we’ll take the offense that is clicking versus the one that has been underwhelming through two weeks, and may have a backup quarterback playing.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Moneyline: +187
Point Spread: +5

This is not a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, but based on our review of other model factors and the matchup, we’re going to make it.

Tampa Bay is one of the surprises of the season at 2-0. They rank 6th overall in net yards per pass attempt after two games with QB Baker Mayfield, and the defense ranks top-10 in a lot of categories, including giving up the 2nd-fewest rushing yards (108) through two games.

So it’s a reasonable possibility the that the Bucs turn out to be a team that the preseason betting market got wrong, in assuming a massive dropoff after Tom Brady’s retirement.

We know the Eagles like to run the ball, but the Bucs’ defensive front will challenge that strategy in a way that the Vikings did not. (Philadelphia, by the way, ranks first in rushing yards allowed, so expect tough going for both rushing offenses in this game.)

Meanwhile, it’s the other side of the ball where the Bucs could be a live underdog. The Eagles’ defense is dealing with a lot of injuries, and they rank 31st in passing yards allowed after two games.

The Bucs’ renewed downfield passing game could present a challenge, as Philadelphia has allowed both of its prior opponents to throw for over 300 yards and erase big early leads by the Eagles.

Carolina Panthers (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +215
Point Spread: +6

This is a playable moneyline value pick and spread pick for Week 3 according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The public absolutely detests Carolina in Week 3, which always piques our interest. The Seahawks are also the most popular spread pick right now in our Football Pick’em Picks data, and are an extremely popular pick in game winner based pools, being picked by 96% of entries.

That’s an absurdly high pick popularity for a team favored by less than a touchdown. (So far this year, teams with win odds +25% or higher than their pick popularity in pick’em contests have 6 wins in 11 games, compared to 4.6 expected wins based on betting market odds.)

We know that QB Bryce Young missed practice on Wednesday, but the team has veteran Andy Dalton, so they have a decent backup option. Furthermore, Carolina’s strengths so far have been running and defense, while the offense has struggled. So there is pretty much nowhere to go but up in terms of the QB situation, no matter who plays.

Meanwhile, our models seem to be keying in on Seattle’s defensive numbers as a moderate favorite. The Seahawks rank 31st in total yards allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed, and 30th in net passing yards per attempt allowed. They have also been outgained by over 270 yards in two games so far.

It’s a bigger risk, but we like getting this size of a moneyline payout against a team with bad defensive numbers and who has a large negative yardage differential.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

NFL Week 3 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 3 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 3 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.