Three NFL Week 9 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 9 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

November 1, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

Hitting an NFL Week 9 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

In this article, we make our three favorite Week 9 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 2-1 for +3.2 units
2023 Season: 9-15 for -1.8 units

We hit on two of the three picks again last week, and came close to a 3-0 week, as Cleveland blew a late lead. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

• Carolina (+139) got its first win of the year, hitting a final play field goal to win 15-13.
• Denver (+280) snapped a losing streak against the Chiefs going back to 2015, beating Kansas City 24-9 in a game where Patrick Mahomes played with the flu.
• Cleveland (+160) had a late lead, but threw an interception right before the two-minute warning, and Seattle scored with 38 seconds left, resulting in a 24-20 loss.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 9, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 9 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Houston Texans)

Moneyline: +130
Point Spread: +2.5

This is currently our top playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Both of these teams are going in the wrong direction in recent weeks, after some early success. Houston just lost at Carolina, with the Texans managing just 13 points. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has lost three straight with its offense floundering.

In many ways, these teams are mirror images of one another, with poor rushing offenses and strong rushing defenses. We’ll grab the plus-money on the dog in what looks like a pretty even matchup.

Arizona Cardinals (at Cleveland Browns)

Moneyline: +296
Point Spread: +7.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Arizona just traded away QB Josh Dobbs, clearing the path for the return of Kyler Murray. He may not start this week (and it would be QB Clayton Tune if he doesn’t) but variance with QB situations is our friend when it comes to upset picks.

Dobbs had started to flounder in Arizona, and the Cardinals have failed on a whopping 12 fourth down attempts this season (4 of 16), the kind of outcomes that can swing games as an underdog.

Furthermore, we have a favorite here who is struggling in the passing game. Deshaun Watson is still expected to be out for Cleveland, and P.J. Walker has thrown one TD pass against 5 interceptions in three games, and is completing less than half of his pass attempts.

The Browns defense is stout, no doubt, but we can take an underdog here that could have the edge in passing offense.

Tennessee Titans (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +130
Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

It’s hard to fully quantify just how different the Titans were with rookie Will Levis taking over for Ryan Tannehill. Levis threw four touchdown passes, while Tannehill had two TD passes all season. Levis also averaged over 8.0 yards a pass while completing 65% of his attempts, attacking down the field in a way this offense has not been able to recently.

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury on Sunday for Pittsburgh, and said he is playing on the short week, though that isn’t official. But regardless, we’ll lean into the Titans’ offense being different with Levis, and the Steelers’ passing offense being at a disadvantage.

For another perspective on Levis’ four-TD game, the last time the Steelers had a QB throw three TD passes in a game was Ben Roethlisberger in December of 2021. They’ve only had two TD passes thrown by a QB in one of their last 24 games.

Pittsburgh also leads the league in fumbles recovered (8) while being near the top of the NFL in fewest fumbles recovered by opponents (2). They rank at the top of our adjusted turnover margin metric, benefiting from 24 total turnovers/turnovers on downs/missed field goals so far.

That explains how a team that is getting outgained and has been outscored can still be 4-3. But the Steelers look overvalued, and there’s a chance the Titans have found a better QB.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 9 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 9 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.