NFL Win Totals: Where We Differ Most from the Betting Markets

We've identified some NFL teams where our win projections are above or below the betting market over/under win totals.

September 8, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

In making our 2021 NFL season predictions, we run simulations using preseason predictive power ratings. Those are based on a number of different factors, which we detail more here.

Metrics must clear a high statistical bar to have predictive power. Most stats don’t make it in. These are some of the factors we do incorporate:

• Last season performance
• Recent franchise performance
• Offensive player ages
• Betting market data
• Quarterback
• Luck
• Coach
• NFL draft data

Last season’s power rating is a big factor, as teams often resemble how they’ve looked in the recent past. Other things like the coach, quarterback status, and recent draft value play a role as well.

Betting market data is one of those other factors, but we aren’t necessarily in lockstep with the market. Those differences are often driven by some of the other factors on that list.

Here, we’ll detail the major differences between our projections and each team’s win totals this year. You can decide whether we are missing the mark or bravely avoiding a popular narrative in search of value.

2021 NFL Win Totals Overview

Before we dive into specific teams, we should note that the NFL betting market is not a single entity. You can find differences in value if you look across different sportsbooks.

One book might have a team listed at 9.0 wins and another at 9.5 wins but with different payout odds. Another might have the same 9.5 win total, but different odds that make taking the under relatively better.

There is often a bias toward overs among the public (typically by betting their favorite team). This creates incentives where more of the values may come on having an “under” lean.

If you averaged the most common win total offered for all 32 teams this year, you would get 8.67 wins. But with the NFL expanding to 17 regular-season games, the average team will have 8.50 wins, or perhaps slightly under that depending on the number of ties.

Now, on to the teams where we differ the most.

2021 NFL Teams Where We Are Lowest Compared to Win Totals

Here are the teams where our win projections are lowest compared to the betting market. The numbers in parentheses after the win total represent the payout odds for taking the over or under, in that order. We used a median win total and payout odds number for each team, across a number of sports books.

Miami Dolphins

Win Total: 9.5 (+125/-145)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  8.3

We give Miami a 67% chance of finishing with nine wins or fewer this season, which puts us below market even with the payout odds on the under.

The biggest factors here relate to some of Miami’s luck factors a year ago.

The Dolphins went 10-6, signaling a turnaround in Brian Flores’ second season as head coach. But they were only 22nd in total yards and 20th in yards allowed, while they finished first in turnovers forced. They also ranked second in opponent field-goal percentage (73.9%).

There is a lot of optimism for a young team that showed signs of growth last season and turns to second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as the unquestioned starter. However, some subtle statistical factors point toward regression in 2021 before Miami’s talent matures in 2022.

Dallas Cowboys

Win Total: 9.5 (+110/-130)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  8.5

The Cowboys went 6-10 in their first season under head coach Mike McCarthy. They got off to a high-scoring start, but they still opened 1-3 as they hemorrhaged points.

Then QB Dak Prescott suffered a broken ankle in Week 5, and they floundered in the weak NFC East.

With Prescott returning and Dallas trying to bolster its defense this offseason, there is plenty of optimism surrounding them. Granted, the Cowboys are a very public team, so there’s often optimism surrounding them.

We also think Dallas will bounce back from its dismal 2020 campaign, but we aren’t quite as optimistic as the market. We give the Cowboys a 64% chance of finishing with nine or fewer wins.

Los Angeles Rams

Win Total: 10.5 (+110/-130)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  9.5

Los Angeles is abuzz with optimism about the change from QB Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford. The Rams finished first overall in points allowed in 2020, but they floundered on offense compared to previous seasons under head coach Sean McVay.

While Stafford appears to be an upgrade over Goff, our research into quarterbacks and win totals shows that teams starting a new veteran quarterback often underperform expectations.

Defenses are also more volatile than offenses, so there’s no guarantee that the Rams will rank first in points allowed again. After all, they were outside the top 10 in both yards and points allowed in each of the previous three years under McVay, even with star defensive lineman Aaron Donald.

In addition, the Rams’ draft capital in recent years has been subpar, as they have traded a number of picks for veterans. Those draft classes (or lack thereof) factor into our projections.

Playing in the tough NFC West, the Rams could be improved on offense and still fail to meet expectations.

2021 NFL Teams Where We Are Highest Compared to Win Totals

We see less edge on overs than unders, relatively speaking. But these are the teams where our win projections are highest compared to the betting market.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win Total: 6.5 (+100/-120)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  6.9

We give Jacksonville a 54% chance of finishing with seven or more wins in Urban Meyer’s first season. That may not sound impressive, but you can often find the Jaguars’ over at +100 or even better odds.

Some of the biggest factors here are a new head coach, a new rookie quarterback, and the division. The AFC South contenders are not locks to be great again, and the Houston Texans have the NFL’s the lowest projected win total.

You can see our research into head coaches and win totals here. Some notes related to Meyer and Jacksonville:

• Since 2003, head coaches in their debut NFL season have gone over the win total 60% of the time (48-32-2).
• Coaches over the age of 50 making their NFL debut are 12-4-2 in going over the win total since 2003.

Philadelphia Eagles

Win Total: 6.5 (-140/+115)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  7.4

Like Jacksonville, Philadelphia has a new head coach. Unlike Jacksonville, it’s a young guy in Nick Sirianni with no prior head coaching experience.

However, first-time coaches age 40 or younger have also gone over at a higher rate in their debut seasons (16 overs and eight unders since 2003).

The Eagles don’t have a No. 1 overall pick under center, but they do have second-year QB Jalen Hurts taking over after getting four starts at the end of last season. Teams that replace their previous starter with another QB who was on the roster the prior year have gone over 57% of the time since 2003.

These might be situations where the public is down on a team because it has a young head coach and an unproven quarterback. More often than not, it has led to value against the win total.

Recent franchise performance is also helping the Eagles here. They haven’t been terrible in recent years, and they significantly underperformed expectations last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total: 8.5 (+110/-130)

BetIQ Projected Wins:  8.5

Let’s now go to the opposite end of the spectrum: a veteran team with a veteran coach and QB.

After starting 11-0 last season, the Steelers went 1-4 over their final five regular-season games. They proceeded to lose to the Browns in the Wild Card Round after committing four early turnovers.

As such, the betting market is showing pessimism here.

Pittsburgh hasn’t had a losing season since 2003, the year before it drafted QB Ben Roethlisberger. However, you currently have to pay juice to wager on it happening this year.

While the Steelers weren’t as good as their 11-0 start, there might also be an overreaction to their 1-5 close. This franchise has a sustained history of success, and the defense is still stout.

Pittsburgh’s veteran offensive line unit grew old together last year, and the running game fell apart. But the team spent a first-round pick on RB Najee Harris, and the receiving group is deep with WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

If Roethlisberger can bounce back—and it’s not a given that the 39-year-old is cooked—then Pittsburgh could provide value here.