NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST UK
Points 77.2 82.4
Total Points   159.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 25.9
Points From Free Throws 15.2 14.3
Shooting MSST UK
Field Goals Made 26.9 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.5 61.2
Field Goal % 43.1% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 15.2 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 18.3
Free Throw % 65.5% 78.2%
Ball Control MSST UK
Rebounds 37.9 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 8.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.6
Steals 7.2 6.9
Fouls 14.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST UK
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 72.3
% of Possessions with MSST UK
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 29.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 19.8%
Turnover 15.3% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST UK
Shot Blocked 9.3% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 24.8%