NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL CONN
Points 69.8 81.5
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 47.0
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 21.1
Points From Free Throws 17.2 13.4
Shooting ILL CONN
Field Goals Made 23.3 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 62.6
Field Goal % 39.0% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 17.2 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 17.9
Free Throw % 73.8% 75.1%
Ball Control ILL CONN
Rebounds 35.6 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 10.5
Turnovers 7.6 6.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.7
Steals 3.4 4.3
Fouls 13.1 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL CONN
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 73.2
% of Possessions with ILL CONN
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 53.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 24.2%
Player Fouled 23.1% 18.9%
Turnover 11.0% 9.5%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL CONN
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 30.5%