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Nets To Win +120

Won: 112-98

Nets at Raptors

Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET

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How it wins: Brooklyn wins the game against Toronto.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model moneyline play for Wednesday in the NBA. 
  • We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
  • Some of the factors that are favoring Brooklyn in this matchup include Toronto's low assist-to-turnover margin in the last seven games, and the fact that Toronto's last three opponent's have underperformed from three-point range (33%). 
  • Brooklyn is also playing better interior defense in recent games, as opponents have shot only 50% on unblocked two-point attempts, and they also lead opponents in blocks, 24 to 9, over the last three contests.

Pick published: Nov 23 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 507


Mavericks To Win +160

Lost: 112-125

Mavericks at Celtics

Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET

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How it wins: Dallas wins the game against Boston.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated model moneyline play in the NBA for Wednesday night.
  • We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
  • Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight's game with a left ankle sprain as of the time we posted this pick (while Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable for Dallas).
  • Tatum being potentially out or limited with an ankle injury provides the potential for additional value at this line. 
  • Other factors our model is picking up includes recent Mavericks' opponents having a low assist-to-turnover margin, Boston's recent opponents scoring a higher amount of points inside the arc, Boston's relatively lower rebound numbers, and Dallas' defensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Nov 23 11:05am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 511

About Our Staff Picks

We created the Staff Betting Picks feature to address several opportunities to provide more value to our subscribers:

  • BetIQ and TeamRankings offer a LOT of predictions and data, but it’s not fast or easy to parse through it all. Some subscribers just want to see a short list of our top/favorite picks.
  • Many bettors enjoy reading the rationale behind a recommended pick, as opposed to blindly trusting “because the model said so” as the reason.
  • Our algorithmic models for NFL and college football make predictions for full-game point spread, over/under, and moneyline bets. However, there’s a lot more to bet on than that.
  • Although bet size limits tend to be lower for markets like props and futures, those types of markets sometimes offer some of the biggest edges.
  • Our model predictions often change as they digest new data such as betting line movement and new game results. That approach has a lot of benefits, because the predictions shown always reflect the most up-to-date data we have. However, some subscribers just want to see a pick that doesn’t change.
  • As we do research on teams and players, sometimes we see a situational or one-time angle on a bet that we are confident provides expected value, and that angle may not be something that our models are well trained to pick up. Models typically need a lot of historical data to work well, and deep historical data simply doesn’t exist for situations that are less common (e.g. quirky injuries or weather or another more creative angle).

Some (and potentially the majority) of our Staff Picks will be drawn from top-rated model picks, but we’ll explain the data angle(s) that our models are likely seeing. Other Staff Picks may not be even be favored by our models, but we’re making a judgment call to overrule them.

Finally, some Staff Picks will be bets like player props and futures that our game models don’t currently cover, or more market-based value opportunities that we see (e.g. an off-market line offered by a particular sportsbook).

For each pick we make, we will note the sportsbook that offered it, and the associated line/payout odds at the time when we published it.