BetIQ Daily: Saturday NFL Wild Card Picks
Saturday picks for BetIQ include both the Las Vegas vs. Cincinnati and New England vs. Buffalo games, along with some CBB matchups.
January 15, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
Can the Patriots flip the script on Josh Allen and the Bills? (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is up, clearing the snow, and ready for the NFL playoffs.
We have already provided a detailed look at the AFC teams and NFC teams, and some NFL playoffs futures picks. Now, we get to today’s games.
1) Las Vegas/Cincinnati Over 48.5 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC
- One of the four playable over/unders this weekend, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- These two teams went under (45 points against 50.5 line) in regular-season matchup, as Raiders scored only 13 points.
- Raiders went only 1-for-7 on third down with one conversion coming late in game, and teams combined for six field goals due to third-down misses in red zone.
- Since that game, Cincinnati has increased its passing volume as Burrow-to-Chase-Higgins-Boyd connection has continued to grow.
- Both teams are top eight in net yards per pass attempt while ranking below average in rushing production.
- Weather will be cold, but winds are not projected to be too high, and snow comes on Sunday, not today.
2) New England +4.5
- NFL Spread Pick
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
- This one is not rated playable according to our models but is a Patriots lean.
- Buffalo-New England series shows no home-field advantage between two Northeastern cold-weather teams.
- Since 2000, Patriots are 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS playing in Buffalo (and have a losing record against the spread in New England).
- That includes New England going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in that span as a road dog in Buffalo.
- In playoff games between division opponents since 2002, the road team is 16-6-2 ATS.
- In our similar playoff team analysis, teams like New England played well on the road in the Wild Card Round, going 9-3 ATS.
3) New England/Buffalo Under 44.0 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
- Another playable over/under, according to our Ensemble Forecast model for Wild Card Weekend.
- Temperatures expected in the single digits by game time, though wind will be much calmer than last game in Buffalo.
- Since 2000, Patriots-Bills games with an over/under of 45 points or less have gone over nine times and under 19 times.
- These two teams are first and second in NFL in net yards per pass attempt and total passing yards allowed.
- Expect run-heavy game plan from Patriots and for Bills to also try to stay balanced and avoid turnovers against a conservative Pats game plan.
College Basketball Games for Saturday
As of publication time, we have nine playable spread picks and 53 playable over/under picks for Saturday’s college basketball schedule.
Here are some of the notable matchups to check out today in between the NFL action.
- Marquette (-1) vs. Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET on FS1
- Kentucky (-4.5) vs. Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Texas (-2) at Iowa State, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
- Syracuse (-2) vs. Florida State, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Mississippi State (-1.5) vs. Alabama, 6 p.m. ET on SEC Network
- San Francisco (-4.5) vs. BYU, 11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
If you’re looking for more college basketball picks, don’t worry. We’ve been focused on the NFL for Wild Card Weekend, but there will be plenty of college basketball picks to come.
We’ll also take a look at some college basketball futures in an upcoming BetIQ Daily now that we are two months away from Selection Sunday.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
- College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
- NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 79-69 (+8.4 units)