College Football Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable moneyline pick for bowls currently.
• Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but the program will start true freshman Jackson Arnold, a 5-star recruit who was National Gatorade Player of the Year. Arnold has played a limited number of snaps but has completed 75% of his passes and been as efficient as Gabriel.
• Our predictive rating model would have Oklahoma as a large favorite (12.5 points) in this one, so the line is discounted quite a bit for transfer news, but we see value on taking Oklahoma with their quarterback of the future making his first start.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model play at +110, and the line available at some US books is better for value right now, including DraftKings at +130.
• This moneyline opened at +150 when bowls were announced but has been steadily moving downward at key books.
• Kansas State QB Will Howard entered the transfer portal, and offensive coordinator Colin Klein took a job at Texas A&M, potentially impacting the Kansas State offense. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread and moneyline pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, though we prefer to just take the moneyline here since the spread is only 1.5 points.
• These are two teams going in opposite directions, as Ohio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in MAC play after a slow start to the season, while Toledo has closed by going 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS to close conference play.
• Toledo's star QB DeQuan Finn's shoulder injury is a big part of that slide, as he missed two games with the injury, and tried to come back and play last week but had his worst performance all year, going 5-for-11 for only 35 yards and two interceptions in the loss to Western Michigan.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and is playable across all our models (predictive rating, Decision Tree, and similar games).
• Though Kentucky was the higher rated team entering the season, Louisville is now rated higher (No. 21, +12.1) than Kentucky (No. 41, +7.1) in our power ratings.
• Louisville has won and covered 5 of the last 6 games, winning all 5 by at least 14 points.
• Kentucky is 2-5 over the last 7 games, including 0-2 as a betting favorite.
• The line may be influenced by recent series history in the Governor's Cup, as Kentucky has won the last three games in blowouts and Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is 0-3 against Mark Stoops.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but a pick based on injury news and trends.
• Miami fell to 1-8 ATS with 8 straight losses against the spread, with a 45-3 loss to Florida State last week.
• The Hurricanes have major issues on offense and at quarterback, and starter Tyler Van Dyke tried to return from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the previous game, but re-injured it early in the second quarter against Florida State and did not return. 
• The two other QBs for Miami, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown, have combined to average only 6.9 yards per attempt and throw 2 TDs to 5 INTs.
• Georgia Tech fired head coach Geoff Collins after four games, and has gone 3-2 SU and ATS since then.
• The Yellowjackets gave freshman QB Zach Pyron his first career start last week against Virginia Tech, and he responded with over 250 yards passing, and the team put up its highest yard total (463) of the season in the come-from-behind win on the road.
• Most books have this as GT -1.5, which is also playable if you cannot get the pick'em/ML at this payout.
   

Staff notes:

• This is just below playable as a model pick, though our model leans to Missouri in this game. It's a Staff Pick based on recent performance and trends.
• When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 20% of the public is taking Missouri to win this game while our models have them as the slight favorite to win outright.
• This line has also moved from -2.5 for Kentucky at opening, to where it is now fluctuating around a pick'em.
• Kentucky QB Will Levis is considered a NFL prospect, but is playing through ankle and shoulder injuries, and is coming off a terrible performance at Tennessee where he threw for under 100 yards and three interceptions, and the Kentucky line has really struggled to protect him.
• Kentucky started 3-0 ATS, but is 2-3 since, with all three losses coming by at least two touchdowns from the spread.
• Missouri has covered 4 of the last 5 after a slow start, and is coming off a 13-point road win at South Carolina where they held the Gamecocks to 203 total yards.