College Football Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under in the Pinstripe Bowl.
• The Pinstripe Bowl is one of the coldest weather venue bowls, and as we noted back in 2021, bowl games played at the coldest weather venues have gone Over 64% of the time. So far this year in such games, Overs are 2-1 (Over in Military Bowl and Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Under in New Mexico Bowl).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 35 of 41 games.
• In this specific series between Army and Navy, the last year was the only game to go Over since 2010, and that was only because it went to 2 OTs (it was 10-10 at end of regulation).
• These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model Over/Under pick for CFB Week 12.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• Both of these teams have been Over teams for most of the year (a combined 14-5-1 on Overs) but have gone Under 3 of the last 6 combined games (with a push) and this is the highest total for Boise all year (first time over 60) and tied for the largest total for Utah State.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest rated Over/Under model picks for CFB Week 12.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• Some model factors are related to the UMass defense versus Liberty offense, as UMass is last in FBS in rush yards per attempt allowed while Liberty is among the leaders in rush yards per carry, and UMass also ranks poorly in yards per pass allowed.
• Liberty's defense ranks highly in points per play recently, but there is also room for regression on that side of the ball.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest rated Over/Unders for Week 12 in CFB.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• BYU's offense has struggled in recent games, scoring 26 points in the last three Big 12 games, and Oklahoma could look to limit mistakes as a big favorite going against an opponent who has been struggling to sustain drives. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
• So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).
• USC has gone Over 9 of 10 games this year, pushing this high total.
• USC and Oregon both rate highly in yards per point on offense, and USC ranks near the bottom in yards allowed per point on defense, meaning they score more points than expected based on yards, and give up more as well.
• Despite USC's over run, we'll play this high total Under. Over the last five years, totals of 75 or higher have gone Under 17 of 29 times (58.6%).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
• So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
• Arkansas State's has high points allowed, but that is heavily influenced by given up 110 points in the first two games to Oklahoma and Memphis, and they have averaged 26.7 points allowed over last six while going 4-2.
• Louisiana has gone Under in each of the last three games, after starting the year 4-1 on Overs.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 10 in CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 34 of 40 games.
• In this specific series between Army and Air Force, the last game to go Over the total was in 2013, and the average points in the last nine matchups is 27.7.
• These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
• Mississippi's low opponent points per play (but high number of plays against) and A&M's low opponent total plays per game (and lack of early scoring against A&M) are regression factors.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
• Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
• Oregon State has gone Over in 5 of 7, but Arizona has gone Under in 6 of 7 this year, and a lot of the model factors in this one are related to Arizona at this total.
• Arizona has high points per play, first downs per play, and a really high third down conversion rate, so there's room for regression downward in Arizona's scoring, despite their games going Under (because of their defense). 
• Arizona's rush defense is allowing 99 yards a game, and Arizona ranks 14th nationally in fewest opponent plays per game (63.3).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
• In games with a total above 62, the Under is 24-15 (61.5%) so far this year.
• Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
• Some of the model factors in this one are related to expected regression with the high total, and include Vanderbilt's high completion percentage allowed, third down conversions allowed, and high opponent plays per game; Ole Miss' high yards per pass, and Ole Miss having a high percentage of their scoring after halftime, but Vanderbilt being a poor team at scoring after halftime.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 8 in CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 33 of 39 games.
• These three schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated playable Under for Week 6 in CFB.
• Shop for your best line, but playable at 59.5
• So far this year, Unders rated as playable at 55% or higher are 10-3, and Staff Pick Unders for CFB are 8-2, with the two losses coming in overtime and by 0.5 point.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated Under in CFB this week.
• Staff Pick Unders in CFB are 7-1 so far this year. 
• Model factors for this game include both teams' high takeaways per game in recent games, Tulane's low opponent yards per game allowed so far this year (277), and UAB's high opponent completion rate allowed.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model and currently our second-highest rated Under for this weekend in CFB.
• The top-rated playable model Unders are 8-2 and all playable Unders are 26-16-1 so far this year
• Model factors include Utah's extremely good rushing defense (2.68 yards per rush this year, 2.75 over last 7 games extending to last year), Utah's low opponent plays per game, Utah's high points per play, and UCLA's high rate of getting interceptions.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated playable Under for CFB this week.
• The college football timing rules on first downs changed, and so far our models have performed really well on Unders, particularly those over 60 points.
• Our highest-rated playable Unders are 8-2 so far this year (and the one loss last week, Colorado-Colorado State, required overtime to reach the number).
• Some of the model factors include SMU's high number of plays per game, TCU's overperformance in recent games in points per play, and TCU's strong rush defense which ranks highly in low yards and low percentage of first downs surrendered rushing.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Under pick for Week 3 in CFB.
• So far in 2023, our highest-rated playable Unders are 7-1, and playable Unders are 19-8-1.
• So far in 2023, in all games with a total of 60.0 or higher, the Under is 13-4.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Early in the year, bot these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this large total.

Staff notes:

• This is a top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
• In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
• Over the previous five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• After one week, these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this really large total.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
• In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Ole Miss was 5th nationally in plays run last year.
• Tulane benefited from big plays and turnovers in getting to 37 points against South Alabama, running only 53 total plays, and averaging nearly 20 yards per pass attempt. 

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Under play for Week 1 in College Football.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Houston and UTSA were both above average in plays per game last year, with UTSA ranking 12th in the category nationally.
• Both teams were in the top 16 last year in completed passes.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated Under for Week 1 of CFB.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Western Kentucky was 2nd in completed passes per game (behind only Mississippi State) last season.
• Over the last five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model play for the bowl season.
• Both of these teams rank near the top of college football (Texas No. 7, Washington No. 22) in our yards per point metric, scoring points at a high rate in the regular season relative to yards.
• Washington's defense struggled in the regular season on third down defense, ranking 121st nationally, an area of regression potential.
• Texas will be without star playmaking running back Bijan Robinson, expected to be an early pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and in the six games that went Over for Texas in the regular season, he averaged 176 rushing yards and scored 14 total touchdowns.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
• As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
• After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
• The average late December/early January daily high in Bronx, New York is 41 degrees, the third-coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
• As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
• After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
• The average late December/early January daily high in Boise, Idaho is 36 degrees, the coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick with 53.1% cover odds.
• In addtion, we are playing the potential impact of wind and rainy conditions in the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday with the after-effects of Tropical Storm Ian, and how those conditions could impact offenses..