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Spread

Jaguars +7.0 -107

Won: 38-10

Jaguars at Chargers

Sun Sep 25 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jacksonville Jaguars win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick (53.8%) according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Jaguars are coming off a 24-0 win over Indianapolis in Week 2, and looking far more competent this year under HC Doug Pederson compared to the Urban Meyer disaster a year ago.
  • Last year's first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (after averaging 6.0 as a rookie) and has found a connection with new WR Christian Kirk.
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in the Thursday Week 2 game at Kansas City. While he could still play through the painful injury by Sunday, we'll grab this line at a touchdown for value against either a limited Herbert or backup QB Chase Daniel.

Pick published: Sep 20 10:23am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 479

Player Prop

Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 186 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

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How it wins: Tua Tagoavailoa passes for more than 253 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Based on the current spread (-5) and 53.5 point total, our player prop model projects Tua for 279.5, 26 points of Over value.
  • Tagoavailoa has gone over his prop total in both of the first two weeks with WR Tyreek Hill now on the team and with new coach Mike McDaniel, and Miami has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL through two weeks.
  • Buffalo has a lot of defensive injuries, and will be without starting S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson, and could also be missing S Jordan Poyer on Sunday.
  • That thin secondary opens opportunity for big plays by Miami's receiving super duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Carson Wentz Under 36.5 Pass Attempts -115

Lost: 43 attempts

Eagles at Commanders

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

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How it wins: Carson Wentz attempts fewer than 37 official pass attempts in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • So far this year, Wentz has attempted 87 pass attempts through two games, but our models show value on the Under here with Washington in the underdog role.
  • Wentz is projected for 32.5 pass attempts in our model, a value of 4 attempts. 
  • Washington ranks third in third-down conversions at 56%, behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia, a factor that has contributed to them running more than 10 more plays than their opponents in both games.
  • They also trailed Detroit by double digits starting in the late first quarter of Week 2 and chased the game at high attempts all day.
  • Teams have passed at a high rate against the Eagles so far while trailing, but the Eagles rate top 5 in pass efficiency D. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is allowing 6.2 yards per carry so far this year.
  • Washington is more likely to adopt a more balanced attack given those factors, and is also at risk of regression in third down rates and extending drives that increase pass attempts.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Total

Eagles at Commanders Under 47.5 -107

Won: 32 points

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia and Washington combine for fewer than 48 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable total pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model, with 53.1% cover odds.
  • This pick is a correlated bet with the Carson Wentz pass attempts Under staff pick.
  • The matchup looks like one where the Commanders might adopt more of a run-pass balance approach given how explosive the Eagles offense is, combined with their strong pass defense but rush D that has given up big plays.
  • Both teams rank in the top 3 in third down conversion rate early in the year, an area of regression potential and value, where the scoring will go down if both teams see their third down rates regress toward league average.
  • Both are also in the top 10 in red zone TD rate, and Washington is tied for best in the league so far, scoring a TD on 6 of 6 drives that reached the opponent 20. That is unsustainable and an area of value potential on the total.

     

Pick published: Sep 25 10:19am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 476

Player Prop

Davante Adams Over 84.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 36 yards

Raiders at Titans

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Davante Adams has more than 84 receiving yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on the injury to Las Vegas slot WR Hunter Renfrow, who will miss Week 3, as well as the illness status of RB Josh Jacobs.
  • Adams only had 2 catches last week, after a big Week 1 debut with the Raiders, so we are also playing on a bounce back and the team focusing on getting him the ball early.
  • With Renfrow out (tied for 2nd-most targets on team so far), that opens up more target opportunities and increases the odds of slot usage for Adams.
  • Last week, Bills WR Stefon Diggs also lit up this Titans secondary, which is missing multiple pass rushers.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Player Prop

Chase Edmonds Over 31.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 21 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chase Edmonds rushes for more than 31 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • With the Bills' defense depleted and focused on stopping the explosive Miami WRs, there will be opportunities for Edmonds to make plays and also get rushing volume to keep the Bills' offense off the field.
  • Our projection is for 42.6 yards for Edmonds, more than 10 yards of value.
  • Edmonds has 17 rush attempts, leading Miami so far, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry through two weeks, well below his career 4.6 YPC, also providing some value on positive regression in his yards per rush against this prop.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Bengals -6.0 -114

Won: 27-12

Bengals at Jets

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cincinnati Bengals win by more than 6 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model pick against the spread on Sunday morning, at 55.3% cover odds.
  • This line has been moving up from 4.5 points earlier in the week.
  • We like the matchup of the Bengals WR against the Jets secondary, as the Jets haven't faced a high volume of passes so far because they have trailed most of the both games, but they rank in the bottom 5 in net yards allowed.
  • The Bengals WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a matchup problem, and the Bengals should have an opportunity for big plays.
  • Cincinnati's 0-2 start, and their loss last year in an upset at the Jets, should have them focused and ready to play aggressively in this game.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:20am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

Spread

Colts +6.5 -110

Won: 20-17

Chiefs at Colts

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Indianapolis Colts win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Colts a 52.6% chance of covering this line.
  • The Chiefs are an extremely popular pick so far. In spread pool data from PoolGenius, 84% of the public is taking the Chiefs -6.5, easily the largest discrepancy so far this year, and an indication of public sentiment on this game.
  • So far this year, teams with >70% ATS pool pick popularity are 2-5 ATS.
  • Indianapolis is coming off getting shutout by the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a game where they were missing their top two wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce).
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off getting shutout the week before are 19-9-3 ATS.
  • The Indianapolis passing game was horrific without Michael Pittman, but we are grabbing this on the likelihood that he is back for Week 3. Rookie Alec Pierce, who also missed the last game with a concussion, profiles as the deep threat for this offense.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 472

Spread

Panthers +3.0 -110

Won: 22-14

Saints at Panthers

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Carolina Panthers win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models. 
  • We want to jump on this line before it gets too pricey at the 3-point spread, or moves below a FG. Right now, most books have the juice heavier on taking the underdog, so shop around.
  • Carolina has lost two close games to start 0-2, but rank 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense.
  • Saints QB Jameis Winston was revealed to play on Sunday with four fractured vertebrae, and he took 6 sacks while also throwing 3 interceptions and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
  • Winston was 1-for-7 with two interceptions on passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play for Sunday's game. 
  • So we are playing on the Panthers' D and against Winston's health status and ability to make throws while playing through the back injury.
     

Pick published: Sep 20 10:07am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 468

Money Line

Texans To Win +125

Lost: 20-23

Texans at Bears

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated value against the Moneyline, according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
  • While neither of these teams have been very good on offense so far in 2022, and are among the bottom teams in the NFL, the Bears' passing offense has been downright putrid.
  • Chicago QB Justin Fields has taken a sack on over 15% of his dropbacks, and the Bears have totaled 153 net passing yards in two games. 
  • Given that the spread is under the 3 points currently, at 2.5, the better value is to just play the Texans to win outright in Texans' head coach Lovie Smith's return to Chicago, where he coached from 2004-2012. 

Pick published: Sep 20 9:53am ET, available at that time at PointsBet, DraftKings.

Rot# 477

About Our Staff Picks

We created the Staff Betting Picks feature to address several opportunities to provide more value to our subscribers:

  • BetIQ and TeamRankings offer a LOT of predictions and data, but it’s not fast or easy to parse through it all. Some subscribers just want to see a short list of our top/favorite picks.
  • Many bettors enjoy reading the rationale behind a recommended pick, as opposed to blindly trusting “because the model said so” as the reason.
  • Our algorithmic models for NFL and college football make predictions for full-game point spread, over/under, and moneyline bets. However, there’s a lot more to bet on than that.
  • Although bet size limits tend to be lower for markets like props and futures, those types of markets sometimes offer some of the biggest edges.
  • Our model predictions often change as they digest new data such as betting line movement and new game results. That approach has a lot of benefits, because the predictions shown always reflect the most up-to-date data we have. However, some subscribers just want to see a pick that doesn’t change.
  • As we do research on teams and players, sometimes we see a situational or one-time angle on a bet that we are confident provides expected value, and that angle may not be something that our models are well trained to pick up. Models typically need a lot of historical data to work well, and deep historical data simply doesn’t exist for situations that are less common (e.g. quirky injuries or weather or another more creative angle).

Some (and potentially the majority) of our Staff Picks will be drawn from top-rated model picks, but we’ll explain the data angle(s) that our models are likely seeing. Other Staff Picks may not be even be favored by our models, but we’re making a judgment call to overrule them.

Finally, some Staff Picks will be bets like player props and futures that our game models don’t currently cover, or more market-based value opportunities that we see (e.g. an off-market line offered by a particular sportsbook).

For each pick we make, we will note the sportsbook that offered it, and the associated line/payout odds at the time when we published it.