College Basketball Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
• Duke is a little better than their raw rating when looking at games with all five starters healthy, and they've answered the concerns after the NC State ACC loss with strong tournament performances (and that loss doesn't look nearly as bad in light of NC State's performance since.)
• Houston's raw rating is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, and they are also still hampered by depth issue, particularly inside, which could be a factor against Duke's size. 
• Houston is 4-12 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread, compared to 13-5-2 ATS in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.4 (15 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
• Clemson is 10-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
• Arizona's rating, meanwhile, is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, as their average Game Score was +34.7 in the five easiest games on their schedule, +21.5 in all others, so just excluding those cupcake games drops the average rating by nearly two points.
• Arizona plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, beating Alabama outright in November as a dog, and beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on lineup and game trends.
• Yale is coming off the outright win against Auburn, where a lot of extreme things happened for them. Auburn had a starter ejected early in the game, and Yale had the highest FT rate of any game all year, at 59.6% FTA/FGA ratio (Their season average was 27.8%, 311th in D1). 
• Yale also hit 45% from three, their fourth best shooting performance of the year (35% average), while winning despite Auburn shooting over 60% on two-point attempts.
• Going back to 2011, teams seeded No. 13 or lower who won in the First Round are 9-16 ATS in the Second Round. However, those that did it despite the three-point shooting being 31% or lower went 4-4 ATS (including Princeton last year) while everyone else went 5-12 ATS.
• So we will play against Yale's short term shooting performance and extreme outlier FTA rate from the First Round. 

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
• We will continue to ride the "Texas A&M with Manny Obaseki" train here. Since Obaseki was inserted as a starter and the Aggies went to a three-guard lineup, the transformation has been remarkable. Texas A&M's average Game Score over that span is +21.9 (for reference, that's in the range of the top No. 1 seeds and their average over the full season). A team who was among the worst shooting teams in the country has been 39% from three over the last seven, while adding in their best outside shooter as a starter, and also a player who can dribble drive and open up opportunities for the other guards.
• Obaseki has averaged 16.8 points per game as a starter, while the team has averaged 85.1 points per game in his starts.
• A&M has had so many different lineups and lineup shifts that we see value, as the market is still tied to the Texas A&M overall numbers and season averages, and this team is noticeably different.  As one clear example, A&M will likely have three different starters than the first matchup in December (a 4-point Houston win). 
• Houston's rating is also slightly inflated by their ability to blow out much weaker opponents. In games with a spread of less than 10 points, they are 4-11 ATS this year (all as favorites), and are 7-11 ATS in road/neutral situations. 

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trends as well as performance trends from past NCAA Tournaments.
• Oakland beat Kentucky 80-76 in a game they hit 48% from three and only 34% of their two-point attempts.
• Going back to 2011, there have been 24 different upsets by a No. 13 seed or lower, and there is a decent negative correlation between three-point shooting in the First Round, and performance compared to the spread in the next games.
• Overall, these lower seeds are only 9-15 ATS in the Second Round, but those who won while making 31% or fewer of their three-pointers went 4-4 ATS in the next game, while everyone else is 5-11 ATS.
• The NC State win over Texas Tech (by 13) provided another data point that this team is playing much better down the stretch, putting up five straight great performances. Further, in all games with Mohamed Diarra starting and DJ Horne playing, the team has an average rating of +13.5, versus +7.5 in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
• Our adjusted tournament ratings, our raw predictive ratings, and other sites like Ken Pomeroy all have Colorado rated higher.
• Colorado's performance recently has improved, and they are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games, all in road/neutral situations, and the Pac-12 teams looked good on the first day of tournament action, opening the possibility that the conference teams are a bit undervalued looking at full season numbers.
• Florida just lost center Micah Handgloten to a broken leg on Sunday in the SEC title game. While they do have depth inside, the 7-footer is their best offensive rebounder, for a team that ranks 7th nationally in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, Colorado is 29th in def rebound rate, and with Handgloten out may be able to neutralize one of Florida's big strengths.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our roster and lineup trends.
• UAB is playing substantially better with their current lineup and minute distribution.
• Since mid-January, when the team demoted guard Tony Toney, the least efficient player on offense in the rotation, they have been substantially better. Average game rating 0.0 in 16 games before, +8.9 since in 18 games.
• Christian Coleman, who has a great story, growing 8 inches after high school while working at WalMart, and taking a long route to D1 through NAIA and JUCO, has emerged at the end of his first year at UAB. Over the last five games, Walker has averaged 15.6 points a game, UAB's average Game Score is +16.4, and Walker was inserted in the lineup for all three wins in the American tourney.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis.
• Kent State has played better with their current lineup, and has put together two of their best performances in the MAC tournament.
• Akron has been struggling on offense. Their overall rating over the last six games has been lower, even though opponents have shot under 30% from three in the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. The issue is turnovers and overall offensive efficiency.
• Kent State ranks inside the top 100 in turnover rate, and we'll play the underdog who is peaking against a team that could be vulnerable and struggling on offense.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
• Alabama's rating is a little inflated by being able to beat up on really bad teams, and their average rating against top competition is lower.
• Florida plays at pace like Alabama, and has had success in both games against the Tide in the regular season, winning by 18 in Gainesville and losing in OT at Alabama (and covering) in a game where they had a 9-point lead with six minutes left.
• So we will continue to fade this Alabama defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency, when getting points against them.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
• Both teams are coming off OT wins in the quarterfinals, Utah State's margin ended up being 12 points in OT, against a depleted Fresno State team, but it was a much worse performance than San Diego State against host UNLV.
• Utah State was without starting freshman guard Mason Falslev, who missed the quarterfinal against Fresno State, and based on the coach's comments yesterday, is not likely to be ready a day later.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model pick for Thursday in CBB.
• Some of the model factors being picked up are related to Western Michigan's low rate of turnovers forced versus turnovers committed, and Ohio's advantage there.
• Ohio is 11-2 ATS against teams ranked outside the top 200 in offensive turnover rate, and only 5-12 against all others.
• Western Michigan is ranked 321st nationally in offensive turnover rate.
• Western Michigan did upset Ohio by 2 at home in their only meeting this year, one of the two non-covers for Ohio against poor turnover teams, but early foul trouble and an outside shooting percentage advantage actually negated the turnover advantage Ohio had (+8), and Ohio did almost come back from a 10-point deficit late with their ability to create pressure.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and trends.
• Both teams are playing really well right now, but we show value on Texas Tech being better than perception based on recent lineup performance. Tech has overcome injuries, and the loss of Warren Washington (who has missed 4 straight and 6 of last 7) has resulted in a big minutes increase for sophomore Robert Jennings, who has responded with strong offensive rebound numbers.
• Over the last 10 games, Tech has an average Game Score of +15.4 (three points better than all other games) and three of their best performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• We also show slight value on this line in our adjust lineup spreads.
• Michigan State is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against teams in the top 50 at avoiding turnovers, and 16-7-1 ATS against all others. Minnesota ranks outside the top 200 in that category.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis, as these two teams have gone in the complete opposite direction over the last month.
• In my review notes, I wrote "has this Michigan team given up?" and it's a fair question in looking at their season. After a 5-5 ATS start, they are a woeful 3-18 ATS. 12 of the last 13 losses are by double digits, and the last 3 losses are by 30, 23, and then by 15 at home to Nebraska on Senior Night, in a game where they allowed Nebraska to shoot 72% on two-point attempts.
• Since January 20th, the average Michigan Game Score is -2.1, compared to +8.2 for all previous games, a steep drop of more than 10 points that is mostly not due to injury.
• Olivier Nkamhoua was lost for the season four games ago, and provides the best defender, and with him out, the two-point defense has been pretty bad.
• Penn State, meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 under first year coach Mike Rhoades, and that run corresponds with point guard Kanye Clary being hurt, and then being dismissed from the team after returning as a backup. Ace Baldwin slid over to the point guard role full-time without Clary and the team has thrived.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
• These are two teams going in the opposite directions, and USC just won at Washington two weeks ago as part of their improved stretch. Washington just fired head coach Mike Hopkins at the conclusion of the regular season.
• With the current optimal starting lineup, USC is 10-4 ATS with an average game rating of +15.6 and is coming off an outright win over Arizona. They are 5-12 ATS with different lineups this year.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• East Tennessee State is a little better than their raw power rating with the current lineup. They performed worse when starter Karon Boyd was out, as they have limited depth and the players that played more minutes in his place were inefficient underclassmen.
• Since Boyd's return in late January, ETSU's average Game Score has been +0.9, versus -3.5 for all previous games. Three of their best Game Scores have come in the last two weeks, with two coming in the conference tournament.
• Samford's A.J. Staton-McCray, the team's leading defensive rebounder from the wing position, missed several games and has not started and played only 21 minutes off the bench in the last two tournament games. Samford rates poorly in defensive rebounding, and that's ETSU's strength (24th nationally, with Boyd being a big factor). So if Staton-McCray is limited again, the underdog ETSU Bucs could have a rebounding edge to stay in the game.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and roster trends.
• USC has been substantially better with their preferred starting five. They have now gone 9-4 ATS with their best starting lineup, with a power rating of +14.4 in those games, versus 5-12 with a +2.0 power rating in all others.
• Over their last six, after star freshman point guard Isaiah Collier has returnd to the lineup, they have gone 4-2 with the only two losses coming in double OT (at Colorado) and by 3 at Washington State in a game they led throughout.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• Connecticut is better than their full season rating if you exclude earlier games missed by Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan, and they should be at full strength today.
• Providence meanwhile has been a little worse than the full season rating without Bryce Hopkins.
• In the earlier meeting, Connecticut won by 9 even though they shot 4-of-23 from beyond the arc (Providence was 4-of-18), and Providence's two best players, Carter and Oduro, both scored 20 points.
• Connecticut's depth should be too much for Providence, and we would put this one at about 2.5 points higher based on the current lineups.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model pick for both spread and Moneyline (at -218) for Saturday, and you could play either.
• So far this year, our top-rated model spread picks are 53% and our top-rated model plays are 30-24 for +24.0 units.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
• No team has been as impacted by injuries as much as Arkansas, as 13 different players have started at least one game and they have used countless lineup combinations, and that explains in part their disappointing season (and low overall power rating).
• But they have been noticeably better in the last 6 games, with the lineup of Battle/Mark/Ellis/Lawson + either Davis or Brazile (returning from injury and 7 missed games in a row).
• In games where 5 of those 6 start, they are at +9.0 Game Score for season, and only +2.1 in all other games.
• Meanwhile, Alabama is going the opposite direction, their defensive numbers have collapsed, and their rating is also inflated by some early season blowouts of their weakest opponents.
• Alabama should have Latrell Wrightsell, who played 8 minutes last game, back, but even with him Alabama doesn't rate as highly in looking at similar games with their projected lineup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB, and also a play we like based on our review of the lineup trends.
• The current spread matches our full season numbers for these teams, but Elon lost starting point guard Rob Higgins and he has been out 7 straight games. Their worst Game rating was in the final regular season game, and also the 2nd and 3rd worst are over the last month and a half.
• Hampton's game results have been a little better with the current lineup from the last few games, so we think there's some value in these two teams being a lot closer in current rating.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Sunday, and also a play based on our With or Without You analysis of player lineups and trends.
• Looking only at the top half of games where Belmont's lineup/minutes distribution was most similar to the most recent games, Belmont's average Game Score is +7.4, versus +1.7 across all games.
• Those similar games exclude games where Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Cade Tyson missed games, and where Isaiah Walker was starting and playing more minutes.
• With the currrent lineup over the last 7 games (the only time all year that lineup has been used), Belmont is 6-1 ATS and the last 5 wins have all come by 14 or more points outright.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our "With Or Without You" lineup analysis and review of teams.
• St. Mary's is going for an undefeated WCC regular season, after beating Gonzaga by 2 on the road earlier this year, in a game where the Zags went only 3 of 14 beyond the arc, and still led all game until inside the final 4 minutes.
• Gonzaga has been about 4 points better since they made a lineup switch to Ben Gregg over inefficient Dusty Stromer in the starting lineup in mid-January.
• St. Mary's lost starter Joshua Jefferson, the best defensive rebounder, for the season three games ago. While they have been able to handle weaker opponents without him, this is not a deep team and this type of matchup is more likely to be impacted by his absence.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and studying the teams.
• USC has been a disappointment this year after having high preseason expectations. They have also battled a lot of injuries and lineup changes. When the preferred starting lineup of Collier/Ellis/Johnson/Rodman/Morgan have all started, USC is 8-3 ATS with an average rating of +14.3, and when they have started any other lineup, they are 5-12 ATS with an average rating of only +2.0.
• USC has had this lineup for the last four games, tied for the longest such stretch with the same starters, and have beat Utah, lost to Colorado and failed to cover by only a point, then beat UCLA as a road dog and just lost by 3 at Washington State as +8 dog, after leading all game, having a 9-point lead with 10 minutes left, and never trailing by more than 4 all game.
• So we think we are getting value on a USC team that is better with the current lineup healthy finally, with the power rating in line with their full season average across all lineups.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
• Green Bay's best player, Noah Reynolds, missed Friday's game against IPFW, where they had their worst performance of the year and lost by 26 as a 2-point favorite. (He also missed the first match against Youngstown, when Green Bay pulled a big upset as an 11.5-point dog).
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 169-141-4 ATS (54.5%). 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 166-137-4 ATS (54.7%). 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
• Saint Peter's is 12-4 ATS in games where Corey Washington, the team's most efficient offensive player, plays, and only 2-5 ATS without him. They have covered the last two games by 13 points each since his return from a 5-game absence.
• Saint Peter's has an average power rating of -0.5 in games with Washington and -10.6 without him.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Iowa State is a strong home team, 12-2 ATS at home this year, including last Saturday's Staff Pick over TCU.
• Some model factors include Texas Tech's higher 3-point and free throw percentage make rate in the last seven games (versus full season) and Iowa State's defensive efficiency numbers, low opponent field goal attempts, and percentage of opponent attempts beyond the arc.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB, at lines where UCLA is a one-point favorite at other books in early releases.
• The DraftKings' line is providing extra line value at early release, with them as the underdog.
• Since an embarrassing 90-44 loss at Utah in early January, UCLA is 7-1 SU, and 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming against Arizona.
• UCLA's average Game Score over the last 8 games is +15.4 (closer to their preseason rating expectation) compared to only +2.1 over the first 16 games.
• Freshman Brandon Williams has moved into the starting lineup over the last five games, and the team has continued its improved play, after starting 4 different players in that spot over the first 16 games of the season.

Staff notes:

• Top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Iowa State is a high-pressure defense that defends the paint well, and creates turnovers. 46% of all FGA attempts against them are from beyond the arc.
• Iowa State shows a pretty strong split based on whether the opponent tends to shoot a high rate of threes or not for the full season. Against teams that rank in the top 100 in three-point rate, they are only 3-4 ATS, but against teams ranked in the bottom 100 in three-point rate, like TCU, they are 9-1 ATS, and the only non-cover was the last home game against Kansas, when a last second bucket for Kansas got the backdoor cover by 0.5 point.
• TCU has shot 43% from three in their last three games, a regression factor that is one of the model factors showing up.
• Iowa State is a strong home team, 11-2 ATS at home this year.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread model pick for Saturday in CBB, rated above 55%, and the BetMGM line is 0.5 of value compared to the consensus we are seeing.
• Spread picks rated at over 55% are 37-29-1 so far this year (56%)

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated spread pick, rated above 55% in both our Decision Tree and Similar Games model, and is also a top-rated moneyline pick if you would rather play the ML.
• Illinois-Chicago is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after an 8-2 ATS start in their first 10.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread pick for Saturday in CBB, and the highest-rated Decision Tree model play.
• It is also rated at 59% in our Similar Games Model.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Some of the key model factors include Pepperdine opponent's high three-point % for the season (37%) and opponents shooting a percentage on free throws in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Texas A&M got off to a strong start to the season, but has struggled to 9-6, dealing with lineup inconsistency, extreme poor shooting, and guard Tyrece Radford missing several games.
• A&M ranks 354th in three-point shooting percentage while Kentucky is 8th-best, providing a regression opportunity with both teams at extreme ends.

Staff notes:

• We will close out the college basketball season by continuing to ride the Connecticut Huskies, who have been outperforming the market expectations significantly all tournament. 
• Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
• In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +25.1. 
• Connecticut is tied for 2nd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
• San Diego State has also played well in the NCAA Tournament, but their most similar performances with the lineup usage they have employed in the tournament is at +15.3, nearly 10 points lower.
• Both teams play a deep lineup and have versatility to adjust in game, the difference is Connecticut's offensive efficiency. Both are top 10 in defensive efficiency, but Connecticut is 3rd and San Diego State 68th in offensive efficiency.
• San Diego State is elite at three-point defense (28.1%) but Connecticut is 8-2 ATS against top 100 teams in three-point defense, and is 7-0 SU and ATS against top 20 defensive efficiency teams.

Staff notes:

• This is a plck based on our lineup analysis and team trends.
• Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
• In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +26.1. 
• Connecticut is already 3rd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
• Miami has also played better with their current lineup, but is well below UConn, and the biggest difference is on the defensive end. Connecticut ranks near the top in both offense and defense, while Miami has an elite offense, but is outside the top 100 in a lot of defensive metrics.

Staff notes:

• This a play based on our WOWY analysis and team trends.
• We'll largely copy our comment on UAB here from before our pick on them to win at Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal.
• UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +13.5 in 20 games both before the first injury and after he fully returned, nearly three points better than full season ratings.
• UAB has also averaged a rating of over +14.0 points over the last nine games with mostly the same rotation, with the only poor performance coming against Florida Atlantic.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and lineup analysis.
• Miami has been signficantly better with the rotation they have used in the NCAA Tournament, with much heavier minutes for the guards and starters all healthy, and in the most similar 25% of games they are nearly five points better than their season power rating average.
• Texas could be without Dylan Disu, who was in a walking boot on the bench in the Sweet 16 matchup after a foot injury.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and team trend analysis.
• Connecticut's performance has been dominant in the tournament, but with the current rotation, they have been playing at an elite level. We will just duplicate our comments from the pick in the Sweet 16 game.
• Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher (now closer to 4 points higher after the Arkansas blowout) when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
• We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current game moneyline is about -135, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
• UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +12.7 in 25 games both before and after that stretch.
• Vanderbilt has been without center Liam Robbins for the last six games, and Myles Stute announced he was entering the transfer portal at the end of the SEC Tournament, and is not playing in the NIT.
• Vanderbilt has won two home games in the NIT, including a one-point win over Michigan, but they were outrebounded 39-23, and trailed by 8 in the final minute, against a Michigan team also down two starters in the game.
• UAB is the 8th-best team in the country at offensive rebound rate, and should have an advantage on the glass against an undersized Vanderbilt team.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick in the NIT quarterfinal between North Texas and Oklahoma State.
• It's also a playable lean based on our WOWY analysis has Oklahoma State with an average power rating of +9.3 in the 13 games without guard Avery Anderson, while North Texas is at +10.5, excluding the first four games of the year, when Tylor Perry missed two games and they played two non-D1 schools. The game is at OSU but even with HCA added in there is value on the dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick for the NIT matchup on Sunday.
• It is also a play based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
• Oklahoma State's rating is lower on average since Avery Anderson's season-ending injury, +9.2 on average.
• Eastern Washington has four games without starting point guard Tyreese Davis (or where he left in the first five minutes) earlier this year that are pulling down their season average, but their average rating is +3.2 with him playing the full game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
• Northwestern has been a solid underdog play all season, as they are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS when getting points. 
• Some model factors include UCLA's low number of 3 point attempts and points from 3 this season, Northwestern opponent's low number of points from 3 in recent games, and Northwestern's high steals per play. 

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on our WOWY adjusted team ratings and team trends.
• We show about one point of edge on this line based on adjusted ratings entering Thursday, with Iowa State being an overvalued No. 6 seed, and only valued at our No. 38 team in the tournament in our adjusted ratings entering the game.
• Pitt also gets an extra day's rest from playing in the First Four game in Dayton (because the committee scheduled all the No. 6 seeds at Friday sites), and that could be big as starting center Fed Federiko missed Tuesday's game and was a game-time decision, but now gets extra recovery time and is more likely to play with the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis.
• Based on the full season ratings, Boise State would be a one-point favorite, and that's where it opened before moving to Northwestern as the slight favorite.
• Boise State has played relatively worse down the stretch, and their best guard Marcus Shaver has been playing through an ankle injury over the last two months. They have been below their full season power rating in 8 of the last 10.
• Northwestern is very good at avoiding turnovers and creating turnovers on defense, and teams with that profile have fared well in their first tournament game. Since 2011, teams in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate on both sides of the ball are 13-6 SU and ATS in the First Round.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean against the spread, and a playable model moneyline play on Maryland according to our models, if you would rather play the moneyline on this one.
• We are listing the spread pick as our official play since the extra half-point is available at DraftKings to get the full three points, and cover getting at least a push in all one-score game scenarios.
• Our WOWY analysis has these two teams dead even, so we also see some value on getting points in this fairly even matchup.
• One model factor here is actually Maryland's relatively high home power rating this year, as the market can sometimes overvalue the home/road splits in college basketball in a small sample size. Maryland is 13-4 ATS and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral, though they have done fine in neutral games.
• Other model factors include Maryland's low number of FGA allowed this year, their recent low 3 Point Attempts allowed, and Maryland's low number of turnovers in recent games.

Staff notes:

• Southern Utah is both a top-rated playable spread and moneyline pick for Friday night, and we endorse either of them as an option, depending on your preference.
• Some of the model factors include Southern Utah's rate of drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line recently, their shooting efficiency in recent games, and the low number of threes this year.
• Utah Valley also has had extreme opponent three-point percentage (31%) compared to Southern Utah opponent's three-percentage (35%).

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis. We also had a futures pick on Howard to win MEAC pre-tournament, and we will re-iterate a lot of the same points that we said before they went out and won their first game by 36 as an 8-point fave.
• There's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
• Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6). [It's now up to +4.5 with the current lineup after the quarterfinal.]
• Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 13-3, and are 5 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
• Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
• Nevada has had two straight "bad" losses that have them on the edge of the bubble entering this game, and they have had 4 poor offensive games in the last 5, where they have struggled at two-point shooting and not getting offensive boards, while opponents have had more success on the boards. 
• San Jose State has been playing better down the stretch, and has been particularly good at getting offensive boards, which is a strong matchup factor in their favor here in the underdog role.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick but is a pick on both lineup WOWY (With or Without You) factors and trends.
• We also had Duke as a future to win the ACC tourney from last week (prior to the UNC win) but they have moved from that +500 original price down to the favorite at +300 at DraftKings, and a lot of the same rationale applies.
• Duke is a better team now, than the full season rating represents. They had a rough stretch of nine games from early December to late January when guard Jeremy Roach was injured and freshman center Dereck Lively was injured and playing limited minutes. They've been more than 2 points better than their season average if you exclude those games.
• Duke's 8-point home win over Pitt in the regular season came during that stretch, in a game Roach missed and Lively played 12 minutes.
• Over the last 5 seasons, favorites coming off a bye in a conference tourney at a neutral site, and playing a team that had to play the day before like No. 5 seed Pitt did, are 164-144-9 (53.2%).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Wednesday in CBB, and one where we also see value based on recent news and team trends.
• Texas Tech just suspended head coach Mark Adams on Sunday for statements he made to a player, and will likely be terminated after the season. Tech is not going to the NCAA Tournament at 16-15, unless they go on a 4-game run in the Big 12 tourney.
• West Virginia has surged in the last two weeks, winning three games and losing only to Kansas on the road by two points, to lock in their place in the tourney.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on player news and team trends.
• Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL in Tuesday's game and is lost for the season. He is one of the national leaders in both assists and steals and is a key driver of Tennessee's pressure defense.
• Even with Ziegler, Tennessee was significantly better against poor offenses and struggled against better teams against the spread. Tennessee is only 4-10 ATS against top 100 offenses (Auburn is 76th) but 12-4 against all others ATS.
•  

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable spread model picks for Saturday, and also a play based on team trends.
• Texas A&M got off to a slow start with a lot of lineup shuffling, but over 21 games with the current lineup, has been more than 3 points better than the season average power rating.
• Alabama has struggled compared to their previous performances levels over the last three games, since the news broke that star Brandon Miller had driven a gun to the scene of a murder, and the program has been under intense media scrutiny.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a model play, but is a play based on team trends and injury news.
• UMKC's Shemarri Allen suffered a season-ending injury three games ago, and UMKC has failed to cover those games by a combined 52 points. 
• UMKC has also struggled with Allen David Mukaba, the leading rebounder, missing time over the last month.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread model pick for Thursday in CBB.
• Navy is hosting American in the Patriot quarterfinal, and could be without shooting guard Sean Yoder, who suffered a shoulder injury a week ago and did not play in the season finale loss to Colgate.
• American has had a lot of lineups and shifting due to injuries, and closed the regular season losing 7 of 8, but rebounded in the Patriot opener against Bucknell.
• Some other regression model factors include Navy's opponents low shooting percentage in recent games, but high effective possession ratio, and American opponents in the last 7 games shooting the same from three (46%) as from two-point range.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, but not quite playable (52.0%) but is a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
• Utah Tech is a little better than their raw power rating, as point guard Cameron Gooden missed five games, and they included Utah Tech's worst, 3rd worst, and 4th worst opponent-adjusted performances of the year.
• Seattle forward Riley Grigsby missed their last game with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown for tonight's game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• Georgia Tech has had a lot of lineup inconsistency and had 11 different starting lineups this year, but is 6-0 ATS with the current lineup.
• The Yellowjackets particularly struggled with Lance Terry missing games in the latter half of January, but the recent run of success has corresponded with his return.
• Syracuse's famous zone has had their three worst defensive games in the last three, allowing the opponents to all rebound at least 36% of their misses, and make at least 59% of their two-point attempts in each, in blowout losses to Duke, Clemson, and PItt.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and also a play based on team trends.
• Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury nine games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -14.0, compared to -1.6 before.
• Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Delaware State's relative strength is on the offensive glass. 

Staff notes:

• This is right on the edge of playable according to our models (52.4%) and also a play based on player news and trends.
• Utah's leading three-point shooter Gabe Madsen suffered an injury early in the game seven games ago, and Utah has been about 8 points worse, and gone 1-6 ATS with him out.
• Starting point guard Rollie Worster also missed the last game for Utah.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
• Florida's best player and center Colin Castleton broke his hand and is out. The Gators have been about 10 points worse so far than their "rest of year" performance after two games without him.
• That is despite opponents not hitting three-pointers, as they have allowed Kentucky and Arkansas to shoot over 60% on two point attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on matchup and team trends.
• Merrimack leads the entire nation in turnovers forced per game, forcing turnovers on 26.2% of possessions.
• LIU is 349th in the country in turnover rate on offense.
• Merrimack's Jordan Minor, who is a candidate for Northeast Conference Player of the Year, missed 6 games in November. Since his return, Merrimack has been over 9 points better compared to their November results. After starting the year 1-9 ATS, Merrimack is 12-6 ATS since.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on player news and team trends.
• Florida's center Colin Castleton suffered a broken hand and is out for the foreseeable future. In the first game without him, Florida lost by 19 at Arkansas as a 9-point dog.
• Without their best player, Florida had to play a freshman who played more minutes in that game than he had all year, and started Jason Jitoboh, who had averaged less than 7 minutes a game in SEC play until that start.
• Kentucky is top 3 in the nation in offensive rebound rate led by Oscar Tshiebwe, and Castleton was easily Florida's best defensive rebounder and shot blocker.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick at +4.5, but you can still get +5 or +5.5 at a few books.
• Villanova has played much better in the last month, though some of the results may not reflect that. They have won 3 of the last 4, and before that had 2nd half leads in losses to Creighton, Marquette, and Providence.
• Justin Moore has returned for the last 7 games from his Achilles injury suffered in last year's NCAA Tournament, and has struggled shooting from outside so far but is coming off his two best offensive games since coming back.
• Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle, who has missed the last three weeks and will likely be out at least one more.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player participation.
• Chattanooga's Jake Stephens suffered an injury eight games ago. The Mocs have won and covered the last three, but over the full eight are still 5.5 points worse with their best player out.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model picks for Saturday in CBB.
• South Carolina has covered three of the last four as a dog in the SEC, including a close two-point loss to Arkansas, and a nine-point loss at Missouri this week, in a game that was close until the final few minutes.
• The Gamecocks have had four straight games of rebounding at least 37 percent of their own misses, which are the four highest offensive rebounding games in SEC play since their win at Kentucky. Mississippi is 259th nationally in defensive rebound rate.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, but is playable based on matchup factors.
• Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS (covering by an average of 9.3 points) when playing an opponent that is outside the Top 200 in defensive rebound rate, and 3-6 ATS in all other games.
• Auburn is 284th in defensive rebounding percentage, with opponents getting 31.4% of their own missed shots, and it is their one glaring weakness across otherwise stellar defensive numbers.
• Auburn is 1-3 ATS against teams in the Top 50 in offensive rebound rate, and Texas A&M is 11th in that category, the highest-rated team Auburn has played so far.
• Auburn is 2-6 ATS against teams that are Top 50 in opponent 2-point % (7-4 ATS against all others), and Texas A&M also rates 18th in that category.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on recent team trends.
• Tennessee's power rating is inflated by their performance against poor offenses and weaker overall teams.
• Against teams that are top 150 offenses on KenPom, Tennessee is only 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS, compared to 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS against all others.
• Texas A&M is ranked 24th in offensive efficiency and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on team trends.
• North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 13 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends.
• North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 12 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.
• Kansas City's David Allen Mukaba missed the last game, and in five games without him, Kansas City is about 5 points worse. Mukaba is Kansas City's best rebounder.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick for Monday in CBB.
• It is also a play based on player participation news and trends.
• Morgan State's Malik Miller, their best all-around player, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, suffered a torn ACL three weeks ago.
• Since his injury, Morgan State is 2-4 ATS with three of the non-covers coming by double digits. They are about 13 points worse over the last six games compared to the rest of the season. 
• Morgan State is dead last in Division 1 at defensive rebounding and has struggled even more with Miller out, while South Carolina State's primary strength on offense is their offensive rebounding (41st nationally).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• We've also seen some line movement that is likely player participation related at some market-leading books, and Texas Tech has started to move to the favorite role.
• Texas Tech has had a frustrating year (1-10 in the Big 12) after finishing as a top 10 team a year ago, and has battled numerous injuries.
• Center Fardaws Aimaq, who was WAC Player of the Year in 2021 and transferred from Utah Valley, has played in only three games all year, but was described as "day-to-day" on Friday after traveling with the team mid-week but not playing at Oklahoma State.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• UCSB is coming off their worst opponent adjusted performance, a 5-point loss to CS-Northridge where they blew a 9-point lead with just under 10 minutes left, and had two key starters foul out.
• The last two opponents against UCSB have combined to go 16-of-34 from three and 30-of-34 from the FT line, while UCSB has "won" most of the other fundamental categories.
• Long Beach is a poor shooting team that takes threes at the lowest rate in the country, and is heavily reliant on offensive rebounding, an area where UCSB is very good, so several of UCSB's strengths matchup here. 
   

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but just under a playable pick with our models, but is a play based on matchup and roster trends.
• Louisiana Tech guard Keaston Willis, who is second in minutes played and leads the team in three-point rate and lowest turnover rate among guards, missed the last game with injury.
• Florida International plays a fast-paced pressing style and with Willis out last game, Louisiana Tech mostly played a six-man rotation.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends and player news.
• Furman is a veteran team that is now our projected favorite to win the Southern Conference after a six-game win streak, and is a highly efficient offensive team.
• VMI is a very young team that is among the lowest-rated in the country, and now has potential injury issues.
• Freshman starting guard Rickey Bradley missed the last game with injury, and senior guard Sean Conway left the game after only 14 minutes. VMI has only six other players who have played significant minutes this year, and they lost by 26 points at Mercer without them.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• It is also a play based on player news and recent trends.
• Stony Brook's leading scorer by points per game, guard Tyler Stephenson-Moore, has missed the last three games after being taken off the court on a back board following a fall on January 26th. 
• Stony Brook has performed worse in its recent games, and is about 5 points worse without Stephenson-Moore than in the games he played.
• Monmouth, meanwhile, ranks highly in our "momentum" metric comparing recent performances to earlier in the season. They have now won 3 straight after a 1-20 start, and Monmouth was one of the least experienced teams entering the year, and has had a lot of players get minutes, but has had the same starting lineup for four straight games, the longest stretch all year with the same starters.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday night in CBB.
• Central Michigan's guard Jesse Zarzuela, who leads the team in scoring per game, missed the last game, and the Chippewas have been about 10 points worse in the six games so far he has missed.
• Central Michigan's defensive numbers have been really poor of late, as over the last five games, opponents have made 53% of two-pointers, 42% of threes, and rebounded 39% of the missed shots they did have.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• The model is picking up the differences in Hawaii's defensive quality versus Cal Poly SLO's poor offensive numbers.
• Hawaii has also had a discrepancy in their two-point shooting and three-point shooting. They have made over 60% of twos in the last two games, and Cal Poly has allowed opponents to make over 60% of their shots from two in the last two games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Ole Miss leading scorer Matthew Murrell is expected to return after missing the last three games with a knee sprain (and being a game time decision in the last two).
• Ole Miss has struggled more with faster-paced pressure teams, going 0-5 ATS and failing to cover by 13 points on average against top 100 offensive pace teams, but that is not Vanderbilit, who ranks well below average at 289th in offensive pace.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on matchup trends.
• Gonzaga is only 7-14-1 ATS this year, but has particularly struggled against teams that play at a slower offensive pace, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS (with an average Game Score of +4.5 compared to +19 for all other games) against teams outside the top 200 in offensive pace.
• St. Mary's is 359th in the country at offensive pace. 
• Gonzaga is also 1-7 ATS against teams that rank in the top 50 in defensive rebound rate, and St. Mary's is 3rd nationally in that regard.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• It is also a pick based on player news and participation trends.
• New Hampshire has been about 10 points better with Nick Johnson in the starting lineup, compared to the first seven games of the year.
• NJIT has been without leading scorer Miles Coleman after he left early in the game three games ago. They did upset UMBC in the last game, but that is entirely due to outside shooting differences (5-of-21 for UMBC vs. 9-of-19 for NJIT from three) offsetting disadvantages at inside scoring and turnovers.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• The model is picking up some of the differences in defensive performance and opponent splits on two-point versus three-point shots as a factor.
• Utah State and New Mexico rank similarly in overall defensive efficiency in Mountain West play, but New Mexico is dead last in conference play in two-point defense percentage and block rate, and 1st in three-point percentage against. Utah State is 1st in two-point percentage defense but 10th in three-point percentage.
• New Mexico is also a low volume outside shooting team, playing into Utah State's strengths, as the Lobos have the 10th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the country.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player news.
• Chattanooga lost star center Jake Stephens to an injury three games ago, and are 1-2 ATS and SU, and are 10.5 points worse than their performance in games with Stephens so far, in that limited sample size. 
• They did cover and win their last game, but that was entirely due to three-point shooting, as they hit 12-of-23 from deep, and were +18 in three-point scoring in a 9-point win. Chattanooga shot only 34% from inside the arc without Stephens in that game.
• Furman is 7-1 ATS since the start of January, and is third nationally in two-point shooting (58%), and should have an advantage inside against a team playing without its best rebounder, shot blocker, and interior scorer.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• These teams are also going in opposite directions in recent trends.
• Kentucky's current starting lineup for the past five games, with Cason Wallace starting at PG and Sahvir Wheeler coming off bench, has been nine points better than their first 16 games, when they had several injuries and shifting lineups.
• Ole Miss has been 7.5 points worse over the last 10 games compared to the first 11 games of the year, and were https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Kermit-Davis-reveals-why-Daeshun-Ruffin-was-left-at-home-when-Ole-Miss-Rebels-faced-Oklahoma-State-203837970/without starters Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin in the last game at Oklahoma State.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Mississippi State's strength is their offensive rebounding, which is one of TCU's relative weaknesses.
• TCU's best rebounder and interior defender, Eddie Lampkin, missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status is up in the air for this one. Mississippi State center Tolu Smith will present a mismatch if Lampkin is out or limited, as TCU has only one other rotation player over 6'7".

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on player participation and injury news.
• CS-Bakersfield lost starting point guard Kaleb Higgins to a season-ending knee injury on January 5th, and are about 6 points worse in games played without him, after adjusting for opponent, and are 1-4 ATS over the last five without him.
• The two tallest players on the roster, Modestas Kancleris and Ugnius Jarusevicius, both missed the last game with injuries and are expected to be out multiple weeks, and the team is thin in the frontcourt now as well.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Thursday in CBB.
• In addition, it's a play here because of player injury and participation news for Western Kentucky.
• Western Kentucky's 7'5" center Jamarion Sharp missed the last game with a hip injury and his status for this game is uncertain, while the team's leading outside shooter, Luke Frampton, just suffered a torn ACL in the last game. 
• Florida International is playing better of late as well, and after a 2-8 ATS start to the year, are 6-2 ATS since December 31st.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a play based on player injury news.
• Chattanooga's 7-foot center Jake Stephens suffered a hand injury and missed the last game, a 16-point loss to East Tennessee State. Stephens leads the team in points (21.8), rebounds (10.2), assists (3.6), and blocks (2.4). Based on coach comments, it sounds like a multi-game injury and his return timeline is uncertain.
• Chattanooga allowed ETSU to make 69% of its two-point attempts without Stephens (50% allowed for season with him.)

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
• Central Michigan was without two starters, Carrington McCaskill and leading scorer, Jesse Zarzuela, in the last game, a 28-point loss (+12.5 line) to Ohio, and while there is no public info on their status for this one, the line has started to move against Central Michigan.
• Central Michigan is 0-3 ATS with an average result of -12.5 from the spread in games without Zarzuela this year.
• Bowling Green had injury and illness issues a week ago, and lost two games by 45 combined points with multiple players out, but bounced back with a 10-point win on Saturday against Miami-Ohio.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• Kentucky went through a mid-season swoon, but has won and covered three in a row starting with a win at Tennessee, and they are playing much better defensively, particularly with defensive rebounding, and have been dominating on the boards in the last three. 
• Vanderbilt is really thin on the front line due to injuries, and will be without their two best rebounders, including Liam Robbins, their 7-foot center and best rebounder, who has missed the last two games and is out for at least a month.
• That depth is going to be a particular issue going against the team ranked 1st nationally in offensive rebounding and who is also 1st in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate.

Staff notes:

• Our "momentum" measure shows these two teams going in opposite directions, and player participation and injury news is a factor.
• Merrimack had missing starters in their first eight games and averaged a -15.7 Game Score to start the year.
• With the current lineup over the last 12 games, they have an average Game Score of -8.7, a 7-point improvement.
• In Northeast Conference play, Merrimack is No. 1 in overall defense and leads the league in opponent shooting percentage, steals, and turnovers forced.
• St. Francis (Brooklyn-NY) has been without at least one starter in six of the last eight, and starting PG Rob Higgins has missed the last four games, and the team has been about 10 points worse over the last eight compared to rest of year.
• St. Francis is dead last in offensive efficency in conference play, and shooting and turnovers have been an issue of late.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday.
• New Mexico State has the lowest average rating in our "momentum" measure among teams playing on Saturday, as the team has been in free fall mode over the last month. New Mexico State averaged a +6.3 Game Score in the first 10 games but is at -7.4 over the last nine.
• The Aggies are in the first year with new coach Greg Heiar, after Chris Jans went to Mississippi State, and have had the truly unique situation with the shooting involving freshman Mike Peake, and the aftermath that came out in December that could be a factor affecting the team.
• New Mexico State is coming off allowing 111 points in their last game, and in conference play are dead last in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to make 58% of two-point attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• In addition, Texas-San Antonio's best player and point guard, Japhet Medor, coming off a 30-point performance last weekend, was in a walking boot and missed the last game against Florida Atlantic mid-week, and is unlikely to play Saturday.
• The final score (losing by 19) was not indicative of the performance as UTSA trailed by 16 at half and FAU only played their starters an average of 20 minutes each.
• FIU is 5-2 ATS since 12/25 while UTSA is 1-5-2.
• UTSA is easily the worst defensive opponent that FIU has faced since early in the season, and the only bottom-tier team in terms of turnover rate forced since a 33-point win over Stony Brook in November.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also a play based on recent team trends.
• We just had North Dakota State as a mid-week pick as well, so we will re-post some of the same notes.
• North Dakota State rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily.
• North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game last week against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play. Forward Grant Nelson has also emerged as a all-conference player.
• North Dakota State has been rebounding and defending well of late, and are coming off their most efficient offensive game of the year.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated model plays for CBB on Thursday.
• The line at DK is also a bit off-market, as most books have North Dakota State as the 1-point favorite now (this pick is still playable at -1/-1.5/-2).
• North Dakota State also rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily, while Denver rates poorly.
• North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game in the last game against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play.
• Some other model factors include North Dakota's State's excellent defensive efficiency in the last three games, Denver's reliance on offensive rebounding in recent games (and North Dakota State being easily the best defensive rebounding team they have faced) and Denver's high shooting percentage relative to their other offensive efficiency measures (rank poorly in turnovers and rebounding relative to shooting).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model picks for Wednesday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on the matchup strengths and weaknesses in this game.
• Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate in Division 1, while Missouri ranks in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding, and it's their biggest flaw defensively.
• Three of Texas A&M's four worst spread performances were in the three games against the best defensive rebounding teams they have faced, while they are 4-1 ATS against opponents ranking outside the Top 250 in defensive rebounding.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our highest-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Furman leads the nation in two-point shooting % (61%) and has been at 60% or higher in eight of the last nine games.
• East Tennessee State ranks 297th in defensive two-point percentage.
• East Tennessee State will also likely be without starting forward Josh Taylor and reserve forward Brock Jancek due to injury, the two players with the highest effective field goal percentage for the team this year.
• Taylor is also has the highest shot block rate for ETSU, and his loss could be even bigger against a great shooting team like Furman.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but is a staff pick based on team trends and matchup factors.
• Eastern Washington is playing much better in recent games than their season average, ranking highly in our momentum factor.
• With the current starting lineup (6 games) they are +9.6 points better than with all other lineups, and 6-0 ATS. Eastern Washington is 8-1 ATS in last nine games after an 0-5 ATS start to year.
• The primary stat improvements with the current lineup are better shooting, and they have won the rebounding edge against all recent opponents except power conference school Texas Tech.
• Opponent Portland State ranks poorly in rebounding efficiency on both offense and defense, giving the current Eastern Washington lineup a significant edge there.
• Portland State's three worst opponent-adjusted games have come in their last five. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• Chicago State has covered 8 of the last 12 after starting the year with two 20+ point losses, while Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS.
• Since Chicago State went to the current lineup seven games ago, they have been about 7 points better in average Game Score compared to the previous games.
• Chicago State covered two games ago against Southern Illinois despite going 5-for-27 inside the arc, and there is some positive regression potential in recent shooting.
• Minnesota is a poor free throw shooting team (60%) something that could come into play late with a lead, and both these teams play at a below-average pace on offense, which should reduce possessions.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks on Wednesday in CBB.
• Northeastern limits teams from shooting outside, and is decent at defending the paint, an area where Davidson relies on attacking.
• Davidson does not have much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of D1 in blocked shots, and opponents blocking shots has been a problem for Northeastern in past games.
• Davidson is also a poor rebounding team, an area where the underdog Northeastern team can have a relative advantage to generate some offense.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model spread pick in CBB on Saturday.
• Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in all of Division 1, and neither has won a D1 game yet this year, but IUPUI is the worst team in our power ratings.
• IUPUI is also worse at some key predictive indicators, allowing opponents to shoot a really high (60%) rate at two-point shots, being among the worst in D1 at turning the ball over, and shooting poorly from outside on offense.
• Eastern Illinois doesn't do a lot well either, but they do rate highly in generating turnovers, an area where they should have a significant advantage in this matchup.
   

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick in CBB for Friday.
• Delaware ranks near the top at avoiding turnovers, and has been even better in recent games.
• Princeton, meanwhile, does not force turnovers, ranking in the bottom 20 in D1, so this is a game where the underdog Blue Hens should have a low turnover rate.
• Princeton's last three opponents have shot poorly from three, hitting only 24 percent, providing some regression value there against Princeton.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread picks in CBB for Wednesday.
• Seton Hall has been an inconsistent team, going 5-4 ATS with seven of the nine games finishing 10 or more points from the spread.
• They have struggled against good shooting teams, as they are 0-4 ATS (with all failing to cover by 15+ points) against the four best outside shooting teams they have faced in Iowa, Kansas, Siena, and Oklahoma.
• They are 5-0 ATS against everyone else, and blew out the most similar opponent to Drexel in style and quality, Wagner, by a score of 82-44 early in the year. Drexel is a slow-paced team that typically doesn't turn it over but only shoots 32% from three-point range.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
• Chicago State has played better in recent games after a lineup shift, and had one of the best wins in recent program history, for what has been a struggling program over the last several years, when they beat Southern Indiana by 17 as a 6-point underdog on December 4th.
• Chicago State has covered 6 of the last 9 games, also including comfortable covers at Marquette and Marshall.
• Murray State has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 games, despite opponents only shooting 29% from three-point range over that span.

Staff notes:

• This is a lean to Yale but not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but our predictive rating model shows value on Yale.
• Yale is 6-2 ATS and has averaged covering the spread by 10 points this season. 
• The two non-covers have been in the last two games, but can be entirely explained by three-point rates, as Yale has shot 28% and opponents 53% in the last two games from deep, and they did not miss covering by much.
• So we see some value still that Yale could be better than expected and is providing some value.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also a staff pick based on player trends.
• Montana was a Staff Pick on Wednesday, and won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite. 
• Montana had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss 3 games with the flu.
• This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
• Given how much better Montana played with a fully healthy lineup on Wednesday, there is some value that Montana could be better than their average rating.
• North Dakota State is 2-8 with only one win against a D1 school, and starting center Grant Nelson has missd two games and is likely to miss this one as well recovering from an ankle injury.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• It is also a Staff Pick because of our WOWY (With or Without You) roster analysis and team trends.
• Arizona State's three worst games of the year, by Game Score, were in the first three games, two of which were started by Marcus Bagley, who has since been suspended and has now stepped away from the team.
• In the past six games with the mostly current lineup (point guard Frankie Collins missed the Colorado game), Arizona State is 5-1 ATS with wins over VCU, Michigan, Colorado, and Stanford, and with an average Game Score of +16.9 (for perspective, Kentucky's power rating this year is 17.1 and Duke is at 16.7). 
• Arizona State has four transfers now starting, so we should be a little more willing to move off our prior and consider that the current lineup could be much better than expected.
• SMU, meanwhile, is 1-6-1 ATS and coming off a loss at home to Jackson State.
• SMU is in the first year under head coach Rob Lanier, and two of their three best Game Scores so far came in the first two games, so they are trending in the opposite direction so far.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but a staff pick based on player news and trends.
• Montana has had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss the last 3 games with the flu.
• This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
• Overnight, this line has shifted from South Daklota St. being favored to now Montana, likely due to positive info on the health and status of Montana starters.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our highest-rated spread model pick for Sunday.
• St. John's (8-0) is traveling outside of NYC for first time this year.
• Iowa State is coming off a tournament in Portland, OR where they beat Villanova and North Carolina before losing to UConn.
• Iowa State's Osun Osunniyi (transfer from St. Bonaventure) is a good matchup going against St. John's center Joel Soriano, who has dominated opponents inside early in the year.
• Iowa State tends to force opponents to shoot a high rate from outside, something St. John's has not done, or done as well, so far this year.
• Iowa State is 2nd in the nation in defensive turnover rate, and is easily the best defensive team St. John's has faced so far this season.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick.
• Florida Atlantic has won and covered in five straight since a road loss at Ole Miss, including a win at Florida and four double-digit victories.
• Eastern Michigan, after a close loss at Michigan earlier this year, lost five straight games before winning at Florida International on Wednesday, in a game where FIU went 1-15 from three and 11-24 from the FT line. 
• This is a major mismatch in defensive efficiency, as Eastern Michigan is 360th in FG% allowed on two-point shots (61%) while Florida Atlantic is 19th (42%).

Staff notes:

• This is not a model plck, but is a staff pick based on player participation news and team trends.
• TCU has had six different starting lineups because of suspension and injuries in six games, but has played better in their last three after a terrible start, with the last game being a double-digit win over Iowa.
• TCU guard Damion Baugh was suspended by the NCAA for six games for signing with an agent, and Baugh, who led the team in assists a year ago, is eligible to play tonight for the first time this year.
• Providence is 2-5 ATS so far this year, and our predictive rating model, despite TCU's early performance, has TCU as having value at this line, even before considering Baugh's impact on return.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
• Brown is 2-0 as a favorite ATS and 0-4 as an underdog, with their two covers coming against the two weakest teams on their schedule. Central Connecticut (0-7) is rated No. 347 in our power ratings and similar to Stony Brook among Brown's opponents to date.
• Brown is next-to-last in FT% so far in Division 1 at 53%, an area of positive regression for scoring.
• Brown is also in the bottom 30 in defensive field goal percentage allowed, and is undersized, but will have the size advantage in this game, and has played opponents who are much better at shooting than Central Connecticut.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean to Minnesota but not a playable pick according to our models, but is a pick based on player participation and team trends.
• Two of Minnesota's top 6 players, freshman guard Braeden Carrington and junior forward Jamison Battle (who led the team in minutes a year ago) were injured to start the year, and have both been in the lineup the last two games only.
• Minnesota is currently bottom 20 in minutes continuity from last year because of that injury to Battle and the roster turnover, but should be better than they have played so far based on having a better lineup now.
• Virginia Tech has failed to cover in five straight games, including winning by only 5 points as a 26-point favorite against Charleston Southern in their last game.
• Minnesota's relative weaknesses so far have been turning the ball over on offense and defensive rebounding, but Virginia Tech does not play a high pressure defense or tend to attack the offensive glass, and plays at a slower tempo.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model (52.6%) and our Predictive Power Ratings have Tennessee at 61.5%.
• We were below market on Kansas to start the year, and they have dropped in our rankings down to No. 24 from No. 10, and are 1-5 ATS so far.
• Tennessee had one bad loss against Colorado early in the year but have otherwise exceeded expectations or performed to expectations, and are No. 6 in our predictive ratings.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated spread picks for college basketball today.
• Both of these teams have first-year head coaches taking over the programs (Jerome Tang at Kansas State and Archie Miller at Rhode Island) making us a little more willing to consider early returns versus prior expectations.
• Kansas State was No. 76 in our preseason rating but is up to No. 63 after their 3-0 start, while Rhode Island was No. 153 in the preseason but is down to No. 205 after a rough 1-2 start.
• Kansas State is second in the nation in turnovers forced, at nearly 33% of possessions, led by guard Markquis Nowell.
• Turnovers have been a major negative factor for Rhode Island, as they are 331st in turnover rate after three games.
• Rhode Island was without guard Jalen Carey in the last game because of injuries, and transfer guard Brayon Freeman sat as a coaching decision, and this URI team is very young, going against Kansas State's high pressure defense.

Staff notes:

• Evansville is a model lean for Saturday.
• Evansville +26 is also strongly favored by our predictive ratings, which have historically performed well very early in the season.
• Our preseason ratings would have also strongly favored Evansville at this line, so the play isn't an overreaction to a single game result.
• Both Evansville and Saint Louis covered by about 10 points in their first games. Both had about average luck in terms of 3PFG% and FT% for themselves and their opponents.
• Evansville had a very disappointing season last year, finishing nearly 100 spots lower in our final rankings than in our preseason rankings. Their two highest usage players last season both graduated, and there was relatively high uncertainty about how good they'd be this year. With this backdrop, pulling an upset in game 1 matters relatively more than it would for other teams, and may indicate Evansville has high upside potential.

Staff notes:

• Our preseason ratings would have had a moderate lean toward Xavier at this line. Then Xavier was half a point from covering against Morgan State in their first game, while Montana played nearly 25 points worse than expected against Duquesne, widening the gap.
• In Sean Miller's first stint with Xavier, the Musketeers were 8-5 (62%) against the spread as a double digit home favorite in non-conference games (i.e. in cupcake games). Then Miller's Arizona teams were 39-29 (57%) in home cupcake games.

Staff notes:

• This is a predictive model lean for Friday.
• Our predictive ratings also show value on Northwestern here. We already would have had a slight lean toward Northwestern at this line using our preseason ratings. Then Northwestern covered -23.5 against Chicago State comfortably, while Northern Illinois lost at home to Illinois-Springfield, a Division II team, widening the gap.
• With Chris Collins as head coach, Northwestern is 28-16 (64%) against the spread as a double digit home favorite in non-conference games (i.e. in cupcake games). They're 8-2 ATS in cupcake games against in-state opponents.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable spread pick for Thursday, November 10.
• Columbia is No. 357 in our predictive power ratings out of 363 teams.
• Columbia lost the season opener 75-35 to Rutgers and is starting three freshmen in their lineup after finishing last year at 4-22.
• UMass Lowell returns 4 of 5 starters, and the one new starter is Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, a transfer post player that previously played at Pitt/St. Bonaventure and gives them more size inside than last year.
• Our predictive power ratings have UMass-Lowell at about 2.7 points better than last year based on the returning starters, and has them 13.3 points better than Columbia on a neutral court, and 10.3 points better on the road.
• The line moved 1.5 points from a 6.5 point opening overnight.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the opening day of college basketball.
• Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
• Our predictive rating model also sees some value on Farleigh Dickinson here, as our spread would be 20.3 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).
• Loyola-Chicago was one of the most experienced teams in Division 1 last year, but will be replacing 4 of 5 starters in this season opener.