College Basketball Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 56.2% (41-32-1).
• Purdue's performance versus top interior defenses versus all others shows noticeable splits. They are 5-8 on Overs when the opponent holds teams to 47% or under on two-point attempts for the year, and 18-7 overs in all other games. Connecticut is 2nd in the nation at 43% two-point defense, the best team that Purdue has played in that regard.
• Edey's height also matches up with Donovan Clingan at center, and both could neutralize the offensive advantages that shooters have getting open when defenses typically have to collapse more.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 55.6% (40-32-1).
• Some model factors in this one include Purdue's two-point percentage defense and low foul rate.
• NC State's defensive numbers have been improved during their end-of-season run. While some of that has been poor opponent three-point shooting, they have also had better interior defense (47% for last eight wins, compared to just over 50% before) and defensive rebounding. 

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Friday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, rated at over 59%, making it the highest-rated model play of the last seven days. 

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Thursday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday, and the current FanDuel line of 144.5 is offering a full point of value relative to our consensus line.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is currently our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday. The FanDuel line of 148.5 is also a full point of value over our consensus line of 147.5.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
• Our models have had high confidence Under plays on 3 of the past 5 Colorado State games, going 3-0 on those plays.
• We're posting Under 144.5 at -114 odds, but this is available at 143.5 with -110 odds at other books. That's also a good play, according to our models. With about 2% of college basketbal totals pushing at whole numbers in this range, getting a full extra point for the -114 is worth it.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
• The FanDuel line is providing a 0.5 point of value compared to the consensus line across sportsbooks.

Staff notes:

• Be careful: there is also an Oklahoma at Kansas State game today, with a total in the 140s. Make sure you are betting on the correct game.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today, at the consensus line of 144.0. FanDuel is offering 144.5 at a -112 payout, which is a slightly better value than 144.0 at a -110 payout, which is available at some other books.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
• This line of of 157.0 is higher than what we are currently showing as playable on our picks page (156.0) but this is the best line at the large US-based books. Given the positive line movement in our favor on this game since opening we still think it's a playable option, up to 157.5.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our second highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday), and our top Over play.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).
• The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our our top college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).
• The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Sunday).
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 53% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our second strongest college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday), and still one of the strongest of the past week.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday).
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday)
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 54% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 54% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our strongest college basketball O/U model picks of the day.
• This game is also available at a line of 152 with payout odds of -110 at several major U.S. books. Our models project it as s trong play at that line as well.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
• This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball Over model pick of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Friday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Thursday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Tuesday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Sunday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 57% heading into Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• Our models project this as a striong play still at 141.5, which is available at FanDuel, and 141.0, which is available at Caesars.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• NOTE: We originally listed the wrong game when posting this -- we listed Air Force's next game on November 10. We corrected it within a few minutes of posting. Hopefully nobody bet that (probably nobody was able to). In general, we will not be posting college basketball spread or total picks several days in advance.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under according to our models.
• Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 140-106-7 (56.9%) this season.
• Most of the model factors are related to shooting regression (Connecticut is at 41% from three in last three tournament games for example) and also rebounding impact, as Miami has had a lot of offensive rebounds in recent games, but Connecticut is good on the glass.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under pick in the CBI semifinal between Radford and Charlotte.
• So far this year, playable Unders rated over 56% by the Decision Tree model are 139-106-7 (56.7%) and non-conference top playable Unders are 67-46-5 (59.3%). 
• These are two of the slowest paced teams in basketball, with Charlotte the second-slowest, and will need high efficiency on offense to go over at the projected pace.
• Radford has hit 48% of threes in the last three games, and opponents have hit 40%, a clear regression candidate.
• Other model impacts include Radford's low opponent rebounds, and Charlotte's low rebound totals in recent games; both teams' low FTA rate for the season; and Charlotte opponents' low assists totals and assists-to-turnover rates in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
• For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
• Model factors include Connecticut's high offensive rebound percentage (1st in nation) vs. St. Mary's high defensive rebound percentage (2nd in nation), Connecticut's very high offensive efficiency in the last three games, and St. Mary's low opponent three-point attempt rate in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick in this NIT game at Liberty.
• So far this year, playable Unders rated at 56% or higher by the Decision Tree Model are 134-105-6 (56.1%) and non-conference playable Unders rated there are 62-44-3 (58.5%).
• Some model factors include Liberty's low opponent made FGs per game this season, and both teams' high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (129-104-6). 
• Some model impact factors include UMass-Lowell's good rebounding numbers and low fouls in recent games, and Vermont's extremely high offensive efficiency in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (124-102-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Michigan State's extremely high effective field goal percentage in the last three games, Ohio State's rebounding, and Michigan State's two-point percentage defense in recent games.
• Ohio State has also played better defense in the last three weeks, turning around a run of poor performances. The one high-scoring game was against the Spartans, in a game where both teams combined to hit 23 three-pointers on over 50% shooting from deep.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under for Tuesday in the Big Sky Tournament.
• We also like this Under based on matchup factors and team trends, particularly involving Weber State.
• Both of these teams rate highly in defensive rebounding, and poorly in offensive rebounding, which should limit second chance opportunities.
• Weber State rates poorly in three-point percentage allowed, but their Over/Under performance has been tight to how well opponents shoot from outside. Montana State is 309th nationally and 9th (out of 10) in conference play at three-point shooting, and their offense is built around scoring inside.
• Against teams who have averaged 33% or under from three-point range for the year, like Montana State, Weber State has gone Under 7 of 10 times, by an average of -10.6 points. All other Weber State games have gone Over 13 of 20 times.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Houston's low field goals allowed for the season, high offensive rebound rate, Memphis' recent high opponent two-point rate allowed, and Memphis' low rate of taking three-point shots in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Liberty's low possessions per game, Liberty's high assist-to-turnover ratio and low turnovers in recent games, and Kennesaw State's low opponent three-point percentage in recent games.

Staff notes:

• his is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
• Some model impact factors include PIttsburgh's high block rate on defense in recent games, and Miami's high number of points from inside the arc in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Syracuse's recent high opponent shooting percentages in the last three games, Wake Forest's interior shooting, and both team having low rebound totals in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (112-92-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Dayton's low number of possessions per game in recent games, their high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games, and Saint Louis' higher three-point percentage in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (111-89-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Montana's high three-point percentage (43%) in the last seven games, Montana opponents having a high FTA rate in recent games, and Idaho opponent's low total rebounds in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.6% of the time (110-88-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Indiana State's high shooting percentage in the most recent 7 games, and Missouri State's low free throw percentage.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Charlotte's low opponent field goals made in recent games, Rice's low opponent turnovers, and Rice's relatively higher offensive efficiency in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
• So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
• Some model factors include the high steal and turnover rate that both teams have had in recent games, Lamar's low points per game in recent games, and SE Louisiana's higher defensive efficiency for the season but relatively high opponent three-point rate in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
• So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
• Some model factors include Stanford's higher shooting percentage in the most recent three games, both teams lower free throw percentage in recent games, and the higher overall offensive efficiency for both Stanford and their opponents in the last three games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Tuesday.
• Texas shoots a high percentage on two-point shots, but Iowa State's defense ranks 1st in the conference in blocks.
• Iowa State power forward Aljaz Kunc missed 10 games in late December and January with injury, and 6 of 10 games went Over, but Cyclones games are 3-13 on the Over with Kunc playing.
• Iowa State's leading outside shooter, Caleb Grill, is questionable for tonight after missing the last game with a lingering back injury.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for Thursday in CBB.
• It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
• Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-12 Over in all other matchups.
• Purdue has been efficient on offense but the one flaw is that they rank dead last in Big Ten play in turnover rate. Maryland is 3rd in defensive turnover rate behind only Rutgers and Northwestern. In games against those three teams so far, Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, lost to Northwestern 64-58, and beat Maryland only 58-55 in the previous matchup at home in a defensive struggle.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
• Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-11 Over in all other matchups.
• Northwestern is 33rd nationally in turnover rate, and 2nd in the Big Ten. Against Rutgers (No. 1 in Big Ten) Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, and against Maryland (No. 3 in Big Ten) they won 58-55 at home in a defensive struggle.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model over/under play for Saturday.
• We also like this Under based on recent Creighton defensive trends.
• As we noted in our spread pick for Creighton, their defense has been significantly better over the last 12 games since center Ryan Kalkbrenner's return from illness. They have limited opponents to shooting only 43% from two-point range over that span.
• Connecticut is reliant on getting on the offensive glass in their offense, but Creighton ranks highly in that category and can limit second chances. 
• Both of these teams are among the best in the country at limiting outside shooting attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable over/under model pick for CBB on Tuesday.
• Recent shooting trends provide regression potential, such as Auburn opponents shooting only 22% from three in recent games. 
• Both teams rate poorly in outside shooting, and those numbers also provide some positive regression potential as both are 25% or under to start conference play from beyond the arc.
• Both teams are good offensive rebounding teams and rate worse on the defensive rebounding end.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model Under play for Thursday in CBB.
• Both of these teams have had short-term higher shooting percentages impact Overs, but are 5-6-3 and 5-6 against Overs for the full season.
• Both teams have shot well on 2-point attempts this year, and even better in the last three games. 
• Charlotte is a really good defensive team at stopping 2-point attempts, and Florida International is not a great outside shooting team.
• Charlotte ranks near the top of D-1 in three-point shooting but near the bottom in three-point rate allowed, areas of regression, as they play at one of the slowest paces on offense.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Thursday in CBB.
• Both of these teams are on shorter term Over streaks thanks to some regression factors that could provide value.
• Chattanooga is shooting 39% from three this year, and their last seven opponents have shot 38% from three.
• Chattanooga games have involved a high rate of free throws, and Citadel opponents have also shot a lot of free throws in recent games. 
• Chattanooga's most recent three opponents have also shot 82% from the free throw line when they have gotten there.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Wednesday.
• Ball State has shot 47% from three (40% overall on season) and opponents have shot 42% from three in the last two games, an area of regression potential and value.
• Georgia Southern has been among the best in the country at avoiding blocks on offense, but they have also played a bunch of poor shot-blocking teams. All three other games against teams that rank in the Top 200 in block shot rate on defense went Under this year.
• Ball State is a poor defensive rebounding team that gets offensive rebounds, but that is opposite for Georgia Southern, where they do not go for offensive rebounds at a high rate but control the defensive glass, factors that could neutralize each other.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model over/under pick for CBB on Sunday.
• There are several regression factors our models are picking up in this game.
• Both teams rate very poorly in shooting (Georgia State is dead last in D1 in three-point percentage) and Georgia State's outside shooting has been only 19% over the last three games.
• Both teams have had a high percentage of their shots blocked, but both have faced some pretty good shot-blocking defenses. Playing each other, both rank more middle of the pack.
• Rhode Island opponents have also shot poorly from outside.
• Rhode Island opponents have had a very low number of free throw attempts in the last three games, averaging less than 13 per game over that span.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Florida Atlantic has been really good at defending two-point attempts (44%) all season.
• FIU relies on their interior scoring and FAU's defense can neutralize that in this matchup.
• Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic have had a hot three-game stretch of shooting, hitting over half their three-pointers and over 60% from two, and some regression potential provides value even though they are a good offensive team.
• Florida International has turned the ball over at a higher rate in their last three games, also providing some regression potential.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Over/Under model play for CBB on Friday.
• Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner missed the last two games, last Saturday and Monday, with illness and both went Over. He should return tonight.
• Creighton has lost five straight games, and over those five have attempted 47% of their FGA from behind the arc (vs. 40% in wins), so regression in outside shooting attempts, and going more to Kalkbrenner on his return, could impact scoring.
• Marquette is 6-5 on the Over this year, but going against teams that rank in the top 30 in avoiding turnovers, they are only 1-3 on Overs.
• Marquette likes to force steals and turnovers to create quick scoring chances, but 3 of the 4 slowest-paced games for them have come against those teams that are good at avoiding turnovers.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under in college basketball according to our models, with estimated 54.5% cover odds.
• Both these teams have been Under more than Over this year (3-5 for AR-PB and 3-7 for MINN) though two recent games for Minnesota have gone over.
• Outside shooting allowed has been a big factor, and Minnesota has allowed 47% in the last three games while AR-PB has allowed 42% in the last three D1 games, so we expect some regression there from short-term shooting against.
• AR-PB has had a couple of hot outside shooting games (TCU, Nebraska) but rate as one of the worst shooting teams in D1, and have averaged under 56 points per game against Power 5 competition, going 1-4 on the Over in those games.
• All four of Minnesota's games against mid-majors have gone Under so far this year.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Wednesday in college basketball.
• North Carolina is 3-4 against Overs so far, and the last game against Alabama only went Over (and had 204 combined points) because it went to overtime (four total).
• Indiana has an effective field goal percentage of 62% so far this year, and while they are good on offense, that is an area of regression opportunity.
• Every Indiana opponent so far has ranked outside the top 150 in turnover rate (which can create easier scoring opportunities) while UNC is in the top 50 in avoiding turnovers.
• Indiana is one of the slowest-paced defensive teams that UNC has faced (i.e., they force longer possessions), most similar to two other games that went Under, in terms of average possession length against.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable Over/Under model picks for Tuesday.
• Furman ranks in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage and bottom 20 in opponent effective field goal percentage, providing some regression potential for scoring even though they are an offensively-skewed team. The early returns are even more extreme than last year and the lineup is virtually similar.
• The last three App State games have gone Over, but the two Unders this year have come against the two best defensive opponents, who rate more similarly overall to Furman (despite the opponent shooting rate, Furman rates better on defense because of defensive rebounding and turnovers).
• Furman is the best shot blocking team that App State has faced this year.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Wednesday.
• Missouri is off to a solid start with new coach Dennis Gates, and are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, but that provides an area for some offensive regression, particularly since they have opened with an easy schedule and Coastal Carolina is ranked better than most of their previous opponents.
• Coastal Carolina has played only one D1 game, but their opponent shot 50% from three in that game.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model Over/Under picks today in college basketball.
• Both of these teams rate in the top twenty in effective field goal percentage right now, with values that would have placed hem 1st (Penn State) or 2nd (Colorado State) nationally last season.
• Both of these teams rate in the top fifty in three point field goal percentage right now, with Penn State shooting a rate that that would have placed them 1st nationally last season.
• These unsustainable hot shooting starts will lead score-based models to overrate the offenses.
• We played the Under on both these teams' last games, with Penn State barely going under after another hot shooting start, and Colorad State going under by 18 points.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Under for Friday in college basketball.
• Charleston is one of the faster-paced teams in D1 so far, explaining the higher total, but there are a few regression factors to play against in this game despite that pace.
• Charleston has rebounded a high percentage of their own misses for put backs, something that Colorado State is relatively good at preventing.
• Charleston ranks in the bottom 50 of Division 1 so far in two-point shooting percentage against.
• Colorado State is 7th overall in effective field goal percentage on offense, another area of regression that could impact scoring.

Staff notes:

• These two teams play in the quarterfinal of the Charleston Classic today, in Charleston, South Carolina.
• This is our top-rated playable Over/Under for today in college basketball.
• Both of these teams rate in the top five in effective field goal percentage right now, after one Division 1 game for Furman and three for Penn State.
• They also both play at below-average pace, with Penn State in the bottom 40 of all Division 1 teams, so any regression in their shooting provides value against this number.

Staff notes:

• This play is based on Gonzaga's recent historical performance in marquee non-conference games.
• Since 2016-17, Gonzaga has been a top-10 team every season. Over that stretch, Gonzaga's non-conference regular-season games featuring a spread between -10 and +10 have gone over 22 times and under 7 times, for an Over rate of 76%, per our custom trends tool.
• Looking at only road games that meet the same criteria, the Over is 6-2 (75%).
• This line is currently available in a range from 143.5 to 144.5 at most sportsbooks. We would play it at any of those numbers.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable over/under pick on tonight's big matchup between Duke and Kansas.
• Through the first two games in the Jon Scheyer era, Duke's defense ranks in the top 30 in opponent length of possession, indicating that opponents have to really work deeper into the shot clock to generate shots.
• Duke has held the first two opponents to a combined 82 points, and the last Duke team to hold an opponent under 45 points (which they have now done twice) was in 2018.
• Duke has great size along the front line and is dominating boards, with 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski, freshman Kyle Mitchell, and transfer Ryan Young.
• Kansas also ranks highly in defensive efficiency through two games, and also is a good rebounding team, so these two could neutralize each other and make for fewer easy baskets.

Staff notes:

• The is one of our top model over/under plays for Monday.
• Both teams have had unsustainable hot three-point shooting to start the season, with Kent State connecting on 54% of their threes so far.
• This will be the best opponent either team has faced this season, which could slow down the offenses.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for Friday.
• In addtiion, this game is being played on an aircraft carrier in San Diego, CA.
• While no games have been played on an aircraft carrier since 2012, the two men's games that were played went significantly under, by an average of 15.8 points compared to the closing totals.
• Michigan St-UNC (2011) combined to go 6-of-32 from three, and Syracuse-San Diego State (2012) combined to go 2-of-22.
• It's not unreasonable to think that a game played outdoors in unusual conditions could impact shooting sight lines and performance, and those poor shooting numbers in the past games is a real effect.
• This game opened at 156, immediately dropped to 148 when it went live after-hours last night, and has continued to drop. 
• Despite that big line movement, we think there is still some value here for this extreme one-off circumstance, as those past two carrier games came in 21 and 23 points under the Ken Pomeroy projections, and his projection for this one is 156 points.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model over/under pick for Friday night in college basketball.
• Both these teams won in blowouts on opening night, thanks to extreme shooting performances.
• Duquesne had an effective field goal percentage of 72.9% in the opener against Montana, going 10-of-24 from three-point range and 28-of-35 inside the arc.
• Duquesne was bottom 20 in effective field goal percentage last year, and completely turned over the starting roster with transfers and new starters, so some of the improvement could be real, but there's no way that reflects their true shooting ability against Kentucky.
• Kentucky, meanwhile, shot 46% from three and 61% from two in its opener, also ranking in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage so far.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model over/under play for tonight in college basketball.
• IUPUI was one of the worst shooting teams in the country last season (bottom 50 in FT%, bottom 10 in 3PFG% and 2PFG%), and managed only 39 points in their first game, against Iowa State.
• This is Drake's first game of the season, and their two highest usage offensive players from last season are on the injury report. Tucker DeVries is probable, and Roman Penn is questionable.
• We're listing this play at Under 132, but also recommend it down to 131.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Over/Under play for Tuesday in college basketball.
• Wisconsin rates much better on defense and is 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed, but has room for both positive regression in their two-point and offensive shooting (where they are bottom 15 in the nation at 39% shooting inside the arc) and their opponent 3-point shooting (only 23% made against Wisconsin so far).
• Wisconsin's opponents have also been poorer shooting teams on average so far, and Wake Forest has a hgher effective shooting percentage than any of them.
• Wisconsin has played several teams with great interior defense and shot blocking, and Wake is the first opponent in last 4 games who rates outside top 75 in block rate and opponent two-point shooting allowed.