College Basketball Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis and matchup analysis.
• Our adjustments after lineup reviews have Dayton as the slight favorite here by a point, while the betting line is the other way, with Nevada typically favored by -1 to -1.5 on the spread, and Dayton a small +number on the moneyline. We've posted the best number at US books, the second-best being +102 at DK, so shop around.
• We also like some of the matchup factors, including this one: Nevada is 3rd in the nation at FTA to FGA rate, at 46%, so they rely on getting to the foul line for a bigger portion of their offense. Dayton is 3rd in the nation on defense, only allowing 22% FTA to FGA rate.
• Add in that in these NCAA Tournament games, they might be officiated a little looser than some conferences are used to, and we like the team that doesn't foul, and forces long possessions defensively, against a team reliant on getting to the line. The most similar game last year was the 7/10 game between Texas A&M (45% FTA/FGA) against Penn State (26% FTA/FGA allowed), a game that Penn State won comfortably by 17 as a dog.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to +139.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to -235.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The -190 line is also a good value compared to some other U.S. books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -193.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The +180 line at BetMGM is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +170.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model and spread pick for Saturday.
• Texas Tech has had an average rating of +15.5 in the last 9 games, since they lost Devan Cambridge for the season and switched to the current lineup, compared to+9.9 rating for the first 8 games.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The +160 line at DraftKings is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +144.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY analysis, tournament power ratings and projections, and matchup factors.
• We have Florida Atlantic projected with a 40.2% chance of winning the matchup with Tennessee.
• Tennessee has performed worse against top offensive efficiency teams, going 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's efficiency ratings, but 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS against all other opponents. Florida Atlantic is 30th in offensive efficiency.
• Tennessee has also performed relatively worse against top defensive rebounding teams, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (the one cover being against Duke). Florida Atlantic is 43rd in that category, the best defensive rebound ranking of any team Tennessee has faced (just ahead of Colorado and Kentucky, teams they went 0-3 SU against as favorites.)
• The most similar offensive team to FAU is Missouri, in terms of overall offensive efficiency, pace, turnover rate, and volume of three point attempts, and Missouri scored 79 and 86 points in two wins against Tennessee as an outright dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread (-4.5) and moneyline pick for Thursday in the Sweet 16.
• Some model factors include Arkansas' high percentage of points from two-point shots and low three-point rate, against a team that rates highly in field goal percentage defense and blocks, Connecticut's opponents hitting a higher rate (37%) of threes in recent games, and Connecticut's high offensive efficiency in the last seven games.
• We also like this play based on lineup analysis, as Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
• We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current price is about +185, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick (as well as spread pick) for Wednesday in the CBI Final.
• Eastern Kentucky has reached the final by winning three straight overtime games, including a 2OT game last night over Southern Utah.
• Model factors that favor Charlotte include their high offensive efficiency for the season, their advantage on the defensive boards, and Charlotte's low opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.
• Eastern Kentucky has also hit 40% of threes over the three OT wins, a regression candidate (32% for full season).

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated moneyline play for Wednesday in CBB.
• So far this year, moneyline plays rated as highly as this one are +5.9 units across 43 games.
• Model factors impacting this are Morehead State's excellent two-point shooting percentage defense in recent games coupled with limiting how many three pointers the opponents take.
• Eastern Illinois is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, in terms of low volume and percentage rate. Morehead State held them to 33% shooting on two-point attempts in their previous matchup.