NFL Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the AFC Championship, rated at 54.5% at 44.5 points. 
• You can play this elsewhere at 44.5, but you can currently get at DraftKings at 44.0 -115, and we think that's the slightly better play, considering that 44 points is one of the most common scores hit and can get you a push, as 3.8% of games from 2017-2021 ended on that total. 
• Some of the Over model factors include Kansas City's low sack rate on offense, Kansas City's low turnover rate forced on defense in recent games plus Baltimore's low interception rate, and Baltimore's high rush rate and rush yards per game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 14.
• Both of these teams are coming off a Week 13 bye, and the Vikings have announced that QB Josh Dobbs will get the start, and the team will also get back WR Justin Jefferson, who has missed seven straight games.
• Both of these teams rate above average in yards per point on defense, and below average in yards per point on offense, meaning they have scored fewer and given up fewer than you would expect based on the yards profile.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 14.
• The Panthers' extremely low points per play and yards per pass in recent games are a model factor in this one.
• The Saints have been averaging 390 yards per game over their last seven, but have underperformed in points scored relative to yards in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 11.
• The Rams get Matthew Stafford back at QB after missing the GB game (and having a bye), and will face a Seattle defense that Stafford threw for over 330 yards against in Week 1, without WR Cooper Kupp.
• Seattle had offensive line injuries in that first matchup that limited their offense, but should be healthier in this one, and are coming off a season-high 489 yards last week against Washington.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 11.
• The Raiders have been the most significant overperformer in yards per point allowed on defense in the last three games, as opponents have gained over 25 yards for every point scored (the average across the league for the year is 15 yards per point). 
• The Raiders have also drawn two poor offenses in the first two games of interim coach Antonio Pierce's tenure, playing low-scoring affairs with the Jets (down bad with Zach Wilson) and Giants (down worse with a 3rd stringer below Zach Wilson) but that changes today, and that should push the approach on both sides of the ball.
• The Dolphins are coming off a bye, able to get healthy, and also get explosive RB De'Von Achane back from IR today, increasing the overall big play ability of this Dolphins offense.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 10.
• In addition to the model factors, the teams both have injury issues at WR. Cincinnati's Tee Higgins and Houston's Nico Collins are both out, and Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a back injury that has limited his practice, and he is questionable.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 9.
• Pittsburgh actually ranks 30th in total yards allowed, but is 19th in points allowed, thanks to forcing 15 turnovers. So there's regression toward their defensive yardage performance.
• Tennessee now has Will Levis starting at quarterback, and he threw more TD passes in his first career start than the Titans had in their first six games combined. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 8.
• These teams just played to a low-total game with 27 total points a couple of weeks ago.
• Over the last eight years, when the first division matchup goes Under the total by at least 10 points, the rematch goes Over 60% of the time (66-44).
• Snow is coming down in Denver early on Sunday AM, but the snowfall is expected to have stopped by game time, and wind is not expected to be high, so conditions are not such that scoring should be heavily impacted.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 7 according to our models.
• This game will feature backup rookie QB Tyson Bagent for Chicago, and aging veteran backup Brian Hoyer for Las Vegas, who last won a game as a starter in the NFL in 2016.
• Las Vegas scored their season-high, 21 points, last week and has gone Under in 5 of 6.
• Chicago had gone Over in their first 5 games, but those were with Justin Fields playing the full game in each.
• We anticipate both teams will be conservative, settle for field goals, and try to avoid mistakes in this matchup given the starting QB situation for both teams.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest rated Over/Under picks for Week 5.
• Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
• Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in turnovers so far, something that has hurt their points scored. 
• Model factors also include Kansas City's low percentage of points coming in the fourth quarter so far, Minnesota's high completion percentage allowed, Kansas City's low offensive sack rate, and Kansas City's low points allowed so far (15.0 per game).

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable Over/Under pick for Week 5. Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
• These teams have gone Under a combined 7 of their 8 games, but several regression factors point to value on the Over at this low total.
• New Orleans is dead last in red zone TD efficiency, scoring a TD only 33% of the time so far. 
• New England ranks 32nd and New Orleans 29th in yards per point scored so far, a measure that shows that both teams have scored fewer points than expected based on the yards gained.
• New England just lost two key players that were a big part of why they rank 10th in yards allowed so far: CB Christian Gonzalez and LB Matthew Judon.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 4.
• The Browns' defense has been dominant so far, but we'll play a little contrarian with this low total, for some positive scoring regression for both of these teams.
• Some model factors include the Browns' low first downs per play and opponents' first downs per play, and the low percentage of scoring coming in the first quarter, where none of the previous three opponents have scored in the first quarter this year.
• Over the last five years, games with a similar Over/Under (between 37.5 and 39.5) have gone 34-26 on the Over.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model Over/Under for Week 2 in the NFL.
• Both of these teams were near the bottom of the league in pace of play in Week 1.
• They both rank in the top 3 in yards per point in the first week, meaning they scored more points than you would expect on the yards they gained. Green Bay scored 38 points while gaining 329 yards and 15 first downs. Atlanta scored 24 points on 221 yards and 13 first downs. 
• Atlanta has played a ball-control rush-heavy offense for last year and to start Week 1, and that style will likely dictate how Green Bay plays as well, especially with their injury situations.
• Green Bay will still likely be without WR Christian Watson, who missed Week 1, and also looks unlikely to have RB Aaron Jones (127 yards and 2 TDs last week).

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 1 in the NFL.
• Miami LT Terron Armstead has been officially ruled out for Sunday.
• Miami averaged 16.3 points per game in the four games Armstead missed last season, and scored 17 in the game he left after 8 snaps. They averaged 26.3 points in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 17.
• The Vikings and Packers face off in a key game for the Packers' playoff hopes while Minnesota is still playing for playoff positioning in the NFC.
• Minnesota games have been wild of late, with lots of late scoring and game environments that result in shootouts.
• But the points per play and yards per point profiles of these two teams suggest their is value on the Under in this divisional matchup.
• Both teams have also been creating turnovers at a high rate recently, another factor.
• Green Bay's defense has allowed only 43 total first downs in their last three games.
• Green Bay's offense has outperformed their points scored based on yardage profile in the last three games, ranking 7th in yards per point in the last 3, compared to 22nd for the year.

Staff notes:

• This is an alternate game line available at + odds at DraftKings.
• Our models have a playable Over on the 40.0 market line for this game.
• That Over/Under has been driven down by the weather concerns for Chicago, where cold and winds could impact the game, and the current forecast is for the wind chill to be below zero at game time.
• However, our research into the coldest games shows the potential for some outlier value on alternate lines in the coldest wind chill games.
• Since 2002, there have been 26 games played at a wind chill of +2 degrees Fahrenheit or lower, and the Over and Under are even in those games (so the market is aware of weather impacts and they are likely priced in for the median result).
• However, 8 of the 26 went Over by 16 or more points (31%) so when games have gone Over, there has been a tendency for them to show higher variance and go Over by a larger amount in these weather games.
• Chicago games had gone Over the total in seven straight games before last week's Under against Philadelphia, and the defense has allowed at least 25 points in seven straight games.
• Both teams have mobile running quarterbacks who can make plays with their feet, and can still generate offense even at lower passing volume. 
• So while it's a longer shot play, we think there is some value in these teams having some outlier qualities that could lead to scoring in these conditions.
• We are specifically playing the alternate over below the key number of 51 since that is the most common point total of any single score. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model playable Over/Unders for Week 16.
• The weather report for Foxboro has improved, with high winds from overnight Friday expected to slow down throughout the day on Saturday, and we've seen the market start to rebound back upward.
• The Patriots' run game has started to get healthy again, and just had over 200 yards against the Raiders, and they have scored 24 or more in three of the last four games.
• The Patriots D has feasted on bad quarterbacks, but against some of the top QBs like Joe Burrow has given up points and yards. Over the last eight games, they have given up 30 points per game in games against Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins, and 9 points per game in games against Zach Wilson (2x), Colt McCoy, and Sam Ehrlinger.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 14, and the highest-rated cover odds play all season in the NFL.
• Minnesota and Detroit both rank in the top 5 in yards per point (scoring more than expected based on yards gained on offense) for the full season, and also in the most recent three games, providing an area of regression against this high total.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 12.
• This is the lowest NFL total since Baltimore-Pittsburgh was also 35 in Week 17 of 2019, and the lowest total in a non-final regular season week game since Cleveland-Pittsburgh (33.5) in Week 12 of 2012.
• Since 2010, games with an Over/Under of 36.0 or lower have gone Over 16 times versus 8 Unders.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model pick for NFL Over/Unders in Week 12.
• Tampa Bay has gone Under in 8 of 10 games but Cleveland games have gone Over 7 times, Under 2 times, and one push.
• Tampa Bay ranks 29th and Cleveland 22nd in yards per point scored, so both have underperformed their point expectation based on yards gained through 11 weeks.
• Tampa Bay has struggled to run the ball this year, ranking 32nd in rush yards and yards per carry, but had their season-high in the win over Seattle before the bye, with rookie RB Rachaad White having his first career 100-yard game. 
• The Bucs have battled offensive injuries all year, but are arguably the healthiest they have been on offense so far this year coming off the bye week.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is out for the game, which should drive Cincinnati to be more pass-heavy than normal with Samaje Perine and Chris Evans as the backs. 
• The matchup also dictates that Cincinnati will probably want to try to pass the ball against Tennessee's defensive front.
• The Titans' defensive front is capable of sacks and creating turnovers, while the Bengals can create big plays, both outcomes which can drive points in this game.
• The Titans are finally getting healthier in the pasising game, and Ryan Tannehill just had a season-high 333 passing yards in the last game against Green Bay.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated Over/Under for Week 8.
• Several regression factors are contributing to value on the Under in this game.
• Minnesota is dead last in opponent TD rate in the red zone (80%) so far this year.
• Arizona has four defensive touchdowns so far this year, boosting their scoring numbers, including two pick-sixes against the Saints that allowed them to get to 42 points on only 326 total yards last week.
• Arizona rates last in net yards per pass on offense, and has not been making many explosive plays this year.
• Arizona opponents have scored on a league-best 46% of all offensive possessions.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable model picks for Over/Unders in Week 8.
• Denver and Jacksonville have both significantly underachieved their scoring when comparing it to yards gained so far this season.
• Denver is 32nd in points scored but 23rd in yards, while Jacksonville is 16th in points and 7th in yards.
• Denver is dead last in red zone touchdown rate on offense (23.5%) while ranking first in red zone touchdown rate on defense (25.0%).
• Those are regression candidates to provide value on these teams scoring more than expected against this lowest total of the week.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model pick for an Over/Under in Week 6.
• The injury news has mostly come down against the offenses in this game, as the Saints will be without their top three wide recievers after Chris Olave has been ruled out this morning (in addition to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still being out), and WR Tee Higgins for the Bengals is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
• In addition, the Saints' underlying defensive stats are far better than the scoring stats show, as they have been victimized by a few big plays but have been really good and rank highly in third down and red zone defense.
• Finally, the Bengals have shown a tendency to run the ball more heavily early in games, if not efficiently with Joe Mixon.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our playable Over/Under picks according to our models for Week 4.
• In addition, Browns DE Myles Garrett has been ruled out for this game following a Monday car accident.
• The Browns were thin on defensive line in Week 3, with DE Jadeveon Clowney out (he is questionable as of now to play today) and are also without starting DT Taven Bryan today. 
• All three Falcons games so far have had at least 50 points scored and Atlanta is giving up 27 points per game.
• Given potential pass rush issues for Cleveland, we like this game to continue that trend, with the Browns able to move the ball against the Falcons D, but Atlanta's playmakers having time to generate big plays against a weakened pass rush without Garrett.