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Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 Defense Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Int FR Sck TD PtsA FPts
1 Dallas Cowboys DAL 7 14.1 12.9 45.7 2.9 21.2 132.3
2 San Francisco 49ers SF 9 14.7 9.7 41.6 2.9 19.3 130.6
3 Philadelphia Eagles PHI 10 13.1 9.3 53.2 2.7 21.0 130.2
4 Baltimore Ravens BAL 13 12.4 10.5 47.0 2.8 20.7 126.8
5 New England Patriots NE 11 14.5 9.3 48.8 2.8 22.5 123.2
6 Buffalo Bills BUF 13 13.5 9.7 42.1 2.7 20.9 121.1
7 Carolina Panthers CAR 7 14.5 8.6 43.7 2.7 21.8 118.9
8 Kansas City Chiefs KC 10 12.7 9.4 45.8 2.3 21.5 117.8
9 Cleveland Browns CLE 5 14.1 8.9 41.3 2.6 21.4 117.3
10 New York Giants NYG 13 11.0 10.3 43.8 2.6 21.4 116.4
10 Jacksonville Jaguars JAC 9 14.0 9.5 39.2 2.7 21.5 116.4
12 Cincinnati Bengals CIN 7 14.0 9.8 38.2 2.7 21.5 116.0
13 New York Jets NYJ 7 13.3 8.7 40.0 2.7 21.2 115.4
14 New Orleans Saints NO 11 11.0 9.4 43.6 2.6 21.2 115.2
15 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 6 14.7 7.3 38.9 2.7 21.2 114.3
16 Seattle Seahawks SEA 5 12.1 10.0 45.5 2.7 23.8 110.7
17 Indianapolis Colts IND 11 14.2 8.8 37.6 2.6 22.9 107.6
18 Detroit Lions DET 9 13.5 10.2 38.9 2.7 23.8 107.3
19 Los Angeles Chargers LAC 5 12.9 9.2 36.9 2.8 22.7 107.1
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 5 12.8 9.5 39.8 2.7 23.5 106.6
21 Minnesota Vikings MIN 13 13.5 10.9 36.5 2.8 24.1 105.7
22 Green Bay Packers GB 6 13.4 9.0 37.1 2.5 22.9 105.3
23 Denver Broncos DEN 9 14.2 8.3 34.6 2.5 22.8 103.4
24 Washington Commanders WAS 14 13.2 8.8 38.9 2.7 24.1 102.7
25 Tennessee Titans TEN 7 13.2 7.8 36.6 2.6 23.5 100.2
26 Miami Dolphins MIA 10 11.9 8.0 36.8 2.4 22.8 99.8
27 Atlanta Falcons ATL 11 12.6 8.3 32.7 2.4 22.4 99.3
28 Houston Texans HOU 7 12.4 7.9 37.6 2.5 24.6 94.8
29 Los Angeles Rams LAR 10 13.6 8.3 34.6 2.6 25.1 93.6
30 Arizona Cardinals ARI 14 12.5 8.9 34.3 2.5 25.5 90.1
31 Chicago Bears CHI 13 13.3 7.3 32.0 2.3 24.4 89.4
32 Las Vegas Raiders LV 13 10.8 8.2 34.1 2.2 24.9 85.7

Fantasy Football Defense Projections 2023

These are our Fantasy Football Defense projections for the 2023 NFL season. They include predictions for sacks, interceptions and fumbles recovered, defensive and special teams touchdowns scored, and points allowed.

They do not include projections for things like safeties (which are truly rare events) and other things that could result in points but are relative rarities. 

For leagues that include points based on the number of points a team gives up in a game, we projected the number of fantasy points that would be expected to be scored by a team that averages that many points allowed in real life.

Why are the Fantasy Football Defense Projections so Bunched Up?

You may notice that we don’t have any team projected for allowing fewer than 19 points per game, or more than 26 points per game. Last year, four teams gave up fewer than 20 points per game. Three teams surrendered at least 26 points a game. 

There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that defenses are pretty up-and-down, and less consistent the next year than offenses. So we should already be a little more cautious. A related second reason is that we simply don’t know which teams will catch the breaks. Some teams will get to play a slew of bad offenses and teams that are playing their backup quarterbacks. Others may catch good offenses, including some surprise breakout teams that we did not anticipate.

So when it comes to defensive numbers, conservative is better. Our defensive projections are built by looking at similar teams, and the range of outcomes that happened to those teams the following year. There is high variability around these average projected numbers. The practical implication is that you should not spend a pick on defense until late in the draft.