Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 | Defense | Fantasy | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Player | Team | Bye | Int | FR | Sck | TD | PtsA | FPts |
1 | Dallas Cowboys | DAL | 7 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 45.7 | 2.9 | 21.2 | 132.3 |
2 | San Francisco 49ers | SF | 9 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 41.6 | 2.9 | 19.3 | 130.6 |
3 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI | 10 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 53.2 | 2.7 | 21.0 | 130.2 |
4 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL | 13 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 47.0 | 2.8 | 20.7 | 126.8 |
5 | New England Patriots | NE | 11 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 48.8 | 2.8 | 22.5 | 123.2 |
6 | Buffalo Bills | BUF | 13 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 42.1 | 2.7 | 20.9 | 121.1 |
7 | Carolina Panthers | CAR | 7 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 43.7 | 2.7 | 21.8 | 118.9 |
8 | Kansas City Chiefs | KC | 10 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 45.8 | 2.3 | 21.5 | 117.8 |
9 | Cleveland Browns | CLE | 5 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 41.3 | 2.6 | 21.4 | 117.3 |
10 | New York Giants | NYG | 13 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 43.8 | 2.6 | 21.4 | 116.4 |
10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAC | 9 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 39.2 | 2.7 | 21.5 | 116.4 |
12 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN | 7 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 38.2 | 2.7 | 21.5 | 116.0 |
13 | New York Jets | NYJ | 7 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 40.0 | 2.7 | 21.2 | 115.4 |
14 | New Orleans Saints | NO | 11 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 43.6 | 2.6 | 21.2 | 115.2 |
15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT | 6 | 14.7 | 7.3 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 21.2 | 114.3 |
16 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA | 5 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 45.5 | 2.7 | 23.8 | 110.7 |
17 | Indianapolis Colts | IND | 11 | 14.2 | 8.8 | 37.6 | 2.6 | 22.9 | 107.6 |
18 | Detroit Lions | DET | 9 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 23.8 | 107.3 |
19 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC | 5 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 36.9 | 2.8 | 22.7 | 107.1 |
20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | 5 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 39.8 | 2.7 | 23.5 | 106.6 |
21 | Minnesota Vikings | MIN | 13 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 36.5 | 2.8 | 24.1 | 105.7 |
22 | Green Bay Packers | GB | 6 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 37.1 | 2.5 | 22.9 | 105.3 |
23 | Denver Broncos | DEN | 9 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 34.6 | 2.5 | 22.8 | 103.4 |
24 | Washington Commanders | WAS | 14 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 24.1 | 102.7 |
25 | Tennessee Titans | TEN | 7 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 36.6 | 2.6 | 23.5 | 100.2 |
26 | Miami Dolphins | MIA | 10 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 36.8 | 2.4 | 22.8 | 99.8 |
27 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 11 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 32.7 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 99.3 |
28 | Houston Texans | HOU | 7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 24.6 | 94.8 |
29 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR | 10 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 34.6 | 2.6 | 25.1 | 93.6 |
30 | Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 14 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 34.3 | 2.5 | 25.5 | 90.1 |
31 | Chicago Bears | CHI | 13 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 32.0 | 2.3 | 24.4 | 89.4 |
32 | Las Vegas Raiders | LV | 13 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 34.1 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 85.7 |
These are our Fantasy Football Defense projections for the 2023 NFL season. They include predictions for sacks, interceptions and fumbles recovered, defensive and special teams touchdowns scored, and points allowed.
They do not include projections for things like safeties (which are truly rare events) and other things that could result in points but are relative rarities.
For leagues that include points based on the number of points a team gives up in a game, we projected the number of fantasy points that would be expected to be scored by a team that averages that many points allowed in real life.
You may notice that we don’t have any team projected for allowing fewer than 19 points per game, or more than 26 points per game. Last year, four teams gave up fewer than 20 points per game. Three teams surrendered at least 26 points a game.
There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that defenses are pretty up-and-down, and less consistent the next year than offenses. So we should already be a little more cautious. A related second reason is that we simply don’t know which teams will catch the breaks. Some teams will get to play a slew of bad offenses and teams that are playing their backup quarterbacks. Others may catch good offenses, including some surprise breakout teams that we did not anticipate.
So when it comes to defensive numbers, conservative is better. Our defensive projections are built by looking at similar teams, and the range of outcomes that happened to those teams the following year. There is high variability around these average projected numbers. The practical implication is that you should not spend a pick on defense until late in the draft.
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