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Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 Rushing Receiving Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FPts
1 Travis Kelce KC 10 2 8 3.7 0.4 148 95 1180 12.5 9.9 180.6
2 Mark Andrews BAL 13 2 11 5.0 0.0 117 75 899 12.0 7.2 134.1
3 George Kittle SF 9 2 9 5.9 0.2 78 55 729 13.3 5.9 110.4
4 T.J. Hockenson MIN 13 0 0 -- 0.0 108 75 766 10.3 4.8 105.4
5 Darren Waller NYG 13 0 0 -- 0.0 110 72 782 10.9 4.2 103.4
6 Kyle Pitts ATL 11 0 0 -- 0.0 96 59 713 12.1 4.5 98.3
7 Dallas Goedert PHI 10 0 0 -- 0.0 82 56 687 12.4 4.3 94.5
8 Pat Freiermuth PIT 6 0 0 -- 0.0 92 61 655 10.8 4.1 90.1
9 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN 7 2 11 4.4 0.1 78 51 612 12.1 3.7 85.0
10 Evan Engram JAC 9 0 0 -- 0.0 87 59 659 11.2 3.1 84.5
11 Dalton Kincaid BUF 13 0 0 -- 0.0 74 45 516 11.5 4.3 77.4
12 Tyler Higbee LAR 10 0 0 -- 0.0 81 57 580 10.2 3.2 77.2
12 David Njoku CLE 5 0 0 -- 0.0 67 53 514 9.7 4.3 77.2
14 Dalton Schultz HOU 7 0 0 -- 0.0 79 50 564 11.3 3.3 76.2
15 Cole Kmet CHI 13 2 6 3.2 0.0 73 46 505 11.1 3.9 74.4
16 Sam LaPorta DET 9 2 6 3.3 0.1 72 46 522 11.3 3.4 73.8
17 Taysom Hill NO 11 49 293 5.9 3.5 12 9 93 10.0 0.6 70.5
18 Juwan Johnson NO 11 1 6 4.5 0.1 61 38 449 11.9 4.0 70.1
19 Gerald Everett LAC 5 0 0 -- 0.0 66 43 504 11.7 3.2 69.6
20 Greg Dulcich DEN 9 0 0 -- 0.0 70 45 525 11.7 2.8 69.3
21 Tyler Conklin NYJ 7 1 4 2.9 0.0 67 46 456 9.9 3.7 68.2
22 Michael Mayer LV 13 1 6 4.3 0.1 65 41 508 12.4 2.7 68.1
23 Irv Smith Jr. CIN 7 0 0 -- 0.0 68 51 469 9.2 3.4 67.3
24 Dawson Knox BUF 13 0 0 -- 0.0 50 37 383 10.3 4.5 65.3
25 Hunter Henry NE 11 0 0 -- 0.0 67 45 451 10.0 3.3 64.9
26 Cade Otton TB 5 0 0 -- 0.0 68 41 471 11.4 2.8 63.9
27 Luke Musgrave GB 6 0 0 -- 0.0 66 42 445 10.5 2.8 61.3
28 Hayden Hurst CAR 7 0 0 -- 0.0 66 42 441 10.6 2.8 60.9
29 Jake Ferguson DAL 7 0 0 -- 0.0 52 40 400 10.1 3.4 60.4
30 Noah Fant SEA 5 0 0 -- 0.0 58 41 423 10.4 2.8 59.1
31 Durham Smythe MIA 10 0 0 -- 0.0 53 32 378 11.8 3.2 57.0
32 Mike Gesicki NE 11 0 0 -- 0.0 59 37 410 11.0 2.5 56.0
33 Trey McBride ARI 14 1 4 3.9 0.0 59 37 380 10.3 2.6 53.9
34 Zach Ertz ARI 14 0 0 -- 0.0 60 38 358 9.5 2.5 50.8
35 Cole Turner WAS 14 0 0 -- 0.0 53 34 368 11.0 2.3 50.6
36 Adam Trautman DEN 9 0 0 -- 0.0 48 32 341 10.5 2.4 48.5
37 Kylen Granson IND 11 0 0 -- 0.0 46 26 318 12.2 2.7 48.0
38 Isaiah Likely BAL 13 0 0 -- 0.0 50 32 331 10.4 2.2 46.3
39 Austin Hooper LV 13 0 0 -- 0.0 37 28 306 10.8 2.4 45.0
40 Donald Parham Jr. LAC 5 0 0 -- 0.0 43 30 310 10.4 2.2 44.2
41 Brock Wright DET 9 0 0 -- 0.0 33 23 252 11.0 2.8 42.0
42 Will Dissly SEA 5 0 0 -- 0.0 33 28 293 10.6 2.0 41.2
43 Josh Oliver MIN 13 0 0 -- 0.0 38 29 272 9.4 2.3 41.0
44 Daniel Bellinger NYG 13 0 0 -- 0.0 40 28 270 9.8 2.1 39.6
45 Luke Schoonmaker DAL 7 0 0 -- 0.0 37 27 260 9.8 2.2 39.2
46 C.J. Uzomah NYJ 7 0 0 -- 0.0 35 24 237 10.1 2.5 38.7
47 Jordan Akins CLE 5 0 0 -- 0.0 37 22 242 11.2 1.9 35.6
48 Harrison Bryant CLE 5 0 0 -- 0.0 34 22 255 11.4 1.6 35.1
49 Brycen Hopkins LAR 10 0 0 -- 0.0 31 21 249 11.8 1.5 33.9
50 Brevin Jordan HOU 7 0 0 -- 0.0 38 23 236 10.3 1.7 33.8

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Fantasy Football TE Projections 2023

We predict the season stats for over 65 different tight ends on our 2023 fantasy football TE projections. In addition to receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns, you can see how many targets we project, the yards per catch, and the rushing stats for each TE. 

These fantasy football TE projections are the result of a lot of things. For one, we built team projections, using sports betting information such as the preseason over/under win totals for each team, as well as the passing and rushing stats from the previous year. You can see a fuller explanation here.

From there, we also had to divide up the team stats among players, using things like how similar players had done in the past, how the team had distributed touches in the past, and projected depth charts. 

Why are the Fantasy Football TE projections for touchdowns so low?

Every year, we reference how touchdown projections for tight ends are much lower compared to what we just saw the season before, and we are often much lower on the tight end that led the league in touchdowns. Just three years ago, Robert Tonyan of Green Bay tied Travis Kelce with 11 TD catches, but we projected a big dropoff based on his volume of other stats and extreme touchdown rate.

Last year, we projected Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox to have a bigger dropoff in touchdowns, because they had a higher rate scored compared to their receptions the year before. Knox finished with 6 touchdowns and Henry with 2, after both scored 9 touchdowns the year prior.

Identifying the specific tight ends that will score touchdowns, which are pretty rare events, can be difficult, and touchdowns tend to follow yards (that is, tight ends that catch more passes and gain more yards tend to score more over a longer sample size). 

It also depends on health, and outside of running back, tight end is the riskiest fantasy position in terms of games missed among starters. So our projections include the risk of games missed to injury in them as well, which lowers the numbers. 

There will be some tight ends who catch more touchdown passes than we expect in 2023, for a variety of reasons. But our fantasy football TE projections are conservative and have the tight ends more closely bunched in that regard.

2023 Fantasy Football TE Projections Highlights 

  • Travis Kelce still leads the way at the tight end position, and is still going strong at age 34. 
  • One of our biggest projection stands is on two second-year tight ends: Chigoziem Okonkwo of Tennessee and Greg Dulcich of Denver. Both were productive in a limited role as rookies, and share a lot of similarities with recent breakout tight ends. Okonkwo in particular has limited competition for touches in a Tennessee offense lacking multiple weapons in the passing game.
  • Several rookies got drafted highly at the tight end position, including Dalton Kincaid of Buffalo, Sam LaPorta of Detroit, and Michael Mayer of Las Vegas.
  • Irv Smith, Jr. has battled injuries for most of his career, but will get an opportunity to be the starting tight end in Cincinnati, an offense that projects to be one of the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns.