Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 | Rushing | Receiving | Fantasy | ||||||||||
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Rank | Player | Team | Bye | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | FPts |
1 | Travis Kelce | KC | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 148 | 95 | 1180 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 180.6 |
2 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 13 | 2 | 11 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 117 | 75 | 899 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 134.1 |
3 | George Kittle | SF | 9 | 2 | 9 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 78 | 55 | 729 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 110.4 |
4 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 108 | 75 | 766 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 105.4 |
5 | Darren Waller | NYG | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 110 | 72 | 782 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 103.4 |
6 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | 11 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 96 | 59 | 713 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 98.3 |
7 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 82 | 56 | 687 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 94.5 |
8 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 6 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 92 | 61 | 655 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 90.1 |
9 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | 7 | 2 | 11 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 78 | 51 | 612 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 85.0 |
10 | Evan Engram | JAC | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 87 | 59 | 659 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 84.5 |
11 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 74 | 45 | 516 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 77.4 |
12 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 81 | 57 | 580 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 77.2 |
12 | David Njoku | CLE | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 67 | 53 | 514 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 77.2 |
14 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 79 | 50 | 564 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 76.2 |
15 | Cole Kmet | CHI | 13 | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 73 | 46 | 505 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 74.4 |
16 | Sam LaPorta | DET | 9 | 2 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 72 | 46 | 522 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 73.8 |
17 | Taysom Hill | NO | 11 | 49 | 293 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 12 | 9 | 93 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 70.5 |
18 | Juwan Johnson | NO | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 61 | 38 | 449 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 70.1 |
19 | Gerald Everett | LAC | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 66 | 43 | 504 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 69.6 |
20 | Greg Dulcich | DEN | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 70 | 45 | 525 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 69.3 |
21 | Tyler Conklin | NYJ | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 67 | 46 | 456 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 68.2 |
22 | Michael Mayer | LV | 13 | 1 | 6 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 65 | 41 | 508 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 68.1 |
23 | Irv Smith Jr. | CIN | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 68 | 51 | 469 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 67.3 |
24 | Dawson Knox | BUF | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 50 | 37 | 383 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 65.3 |
25 | Hunter Henry | NE | 11 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 67 | 45 | 451 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 64.9 |
26 | Cade Otton | TB | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 68 | 41 | 471 | 11.4 | 2.8 | 63.9 |
27 | Luke Musgrave | GB | 6 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 66 | 42 | 445 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 61.3 |
28 | Hayden Hurst | CAR | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 66 | 42 | 441 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 60.9 |
29 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 52 | 40 | 400 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 60.4 |
30 | Noah Fant | SEA | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 58 | 41 | 423 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 59.1 |
31 | Durham Smythe | MIA | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 53 | 32 | 378 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 57.0 |
32 | Mike Gesicki | NE | 11 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 59 | 37 | 410 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 56.0 |
33 | Trey McBride | ARI | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 59 | 37 | 380 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 53.9 |
34 | Zach Ertz | ARI | 14 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 60 | 38 | 358 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 50.8 |
35 | Cole Turner | WAS | 14 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 53 | 34 | 368 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 50.6 |
36 | Adam Trautman | DEN | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 48 | 32 | 341 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 48.5 |
37 | Kylen Granson | IND | 11 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 46 | 26 | 318 | 12.2 | 2.7 | 48.0 |
38 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 50 | 32 | 331 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 46.3 |
39 | Austin Hooper | LV | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 37 | 28 | 306 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 45.0 |
40 | Donald Parham Jr. | LAC | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 43 | 30 | 310 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 44.2 |
41 | Brock Wright | DET | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 33 | 23 | 252 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 42.0 |
42 | Will Dissly | SEA | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 33 | 28 | 293 | 10.6 | 2.0 | 41.2 |
43 | Josh Oliver | MIN | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 38 | 29 | 272 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 41.0 |
44 | Daniel Bellinger | NYG | 13 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 40 | 28 | 270 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 39.6 |
45 | Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 37 | 27 | 260 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 39.2 |
46 | C.J. Uzomah | NYJ | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 35 | 24 | 237 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 38.7 |
47 | Jordan Akins | CLE | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 37 | 22 | 242 | 11.2 | 1.9 | 35.6 |
48 | Harrison Bryant | CLE | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 34 | 22 | 255 | 11.4 | 1.6 | 35.1 |
49 | Brycen Hopkins | LAR | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 31 | 21 | 249 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 33.9 |
50 | Brevin Jordan | HOU | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 38 | 23 | 236 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 33.8 |
50 | Brenton Strange | JAC | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 34 | 24 | 255 | 10.8 | 1.4 | 33.8 |
52 | Tanner Hudson | CIN | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 33 | 23 | 218 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 33.2 |
53 | Jonnu Smith | ATL | 11 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 33 | 20 | 205 | 10.2 | 2.1 | 33.1 |
54 | Noah Gray | KC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 31 | 22 | 222 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 32.2 |
55 | Logan Thomas | WAS | 14 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 34 | 23 | 223 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 31.9 |
56 | Tommy Tremble | CAR | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 33 | 21 | 211 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 31.3 |
57 | Eric Saubert | MIA | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 32 | 22 | 219 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 30.3 |
58 | Josiah Deguara | GB | 6 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 31 | 21 | 200 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 29.0 |
59 | Darnell Washington | PIT | 6 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 32 | 23 | 212 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 28.4 |
60 | Luke Farrell | JAC | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 28 | 19 | 205 | 10.8 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
61 | Peyton Hendershot | DAL | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 27 | 18 | 170 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 27.8 |
62 | James Mitchell | DET | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 20 | 14 | 148 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 27.4 |
63 | Robert Tonyan | CHI | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25 | 14 | 147 | 10.5 | 2.1 | 27.3 |
64 | Trevon Wesco | TEN | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 26 | 18 | 182 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 27.2 |
65 | Cameron Latu | SF | 9 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0.0 | 23 | 15 | 194 | 13.1 | 1.1 | 26.0 |
We predict the season stats for over 65 different tight ends on our 2023 fantasy football TE projections. In addition to receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns, you can see how many targets we project, the yards per catch, and the rushing stats for each TE.
These fantasy football TE projections are the result of a lot of things. For one, we built team projections, using sports betting information such as the preseason over/under win totals for each team, as well as the passing and rushing stats from the previous year. You can see a fuller explanation here.
From there, we also had to divide up the team stats among players, using things like how similar players had done in the past, how the team had distributed touches in the past, and projected depth charts.
Every year, we reference how touchdown projections for tight ends are much lower compared to what we just saw the season before, and we are often much lower on the tight end that led the league in touchdowns. Just three years ago, Robert Tonyan of Green Bay tied Travis Kelce with 11 TD catches, but we projected a big dropoff based on his volume of other stats and extreme touchdown rate.
Last year, we projected Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox to have a bigger dropoff in touchdowns, because they had a higher rate scored compared to their receptions the year before. Knox finished with 6 touchdowns and Henry with 2, after both scored 9 touchdowns the year prior.
Identifying the specific tight ends that will score touchdowns, which are pretty rare events, can be difficult, and touchdowns tend to follow yards (that is, tight ends that catch more passes and gain more yards tend to score more over a longer sample size).
It also depends on health, and outside of running back, tight end is the riskiest fantasy position in terms of games missed among starters. So our projections include the risk of games missed to injury in them as well, which lowers the numbers.
There will be some tight ends who catch more touchdown passes than we expect in 2023, for a variety of reasons. But our fantasy football TE projections are conservative and have the tight ends more closely bunched in that regard.
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