7 League-Winning Targets in Fantasy Football

Who are some of our targets at their current price, to help you build a winning fantasy team in 2020? Here are some of our favorites.

August 14, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

Miles Sanders makes our league-winning targets list

Miles Sanders will try to make sweet music like Merl Saunders in 2020 (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Who are some of the players we like to make a big impact in 2020? We’ve already put out some sleepers, going later in drafts, but these picks include players early in drafts who could be league-winning targets. Our projections view these players favorably, and just as importantly, there are some conditions where they could provide big value.

RB Miles Sanders

Sanders is going in the middle of the second round in many drafts but is a guy with top running back upside. After the first handful of backs are gone, he has one of the best profiles among the other candidates. Four of his five most comparable players scored over 260 fantasy points in PPR formats the next season, including David Johnson in 2016 when he ended up leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage.

Sanders was a versatile back with over 180 rushes and over 40 catches as a rookie. That kind of rush/catch combo in a young player can be a precursor to a big fantasy season. His similar players also include breakout seasons from young guys like LeSean McCoy, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Maurice Jones-Drew, and David Johnson.

And then you see his situation, on an Eagles team expected to contend, and with no clear competition for the role as the starter. The elements are in place for a big fantasy season, and if you are going to take an early swing late in round one or in round two, Sanders is a big target. Sanders outscored Josh Jacobs last year in PPR formats, yet is often going behind the other back from his draft class, who is in a worse offense and does not contribute as much as a receiver.

WR Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley is on our short list of boom wide receivers to target. You may do a double-take if you look at our projections and see him in the top 10 in wide receiver projections. But let’s lay out the case for why Ridley could be a league-winning target if you get him before his current 4th round average draft position (ADP).

He’s a former first round pick moving into his prime in Year 3. He’s in a passing offense that is projected to be in the top two in passing volume and yards. One of the other weapons last year, Austin Hooper, has moved on. The star wide receiver on the team, Julio Jones, just turned 31 years old. And Ridley’s injury last year is masking how much he improved from year one to year two, and also how the gap between Jones and Ridley already started to narrow last season.

While Ridley had more touchdowns than Jones as a rookie, Jones had more than twice as many yards as Ridley in 2018. Last year’s final numbers (1394 yards for Jones, 866 for Ridley) suggest there is still a large gap, but that’s deceiving. Over the last three games, when Ridley was out, Jones exploded for 30 catches, 378 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The distribution when they were both playing was much closer. In fact, over the last five games they played together in 2019, here were their totals:

Jones: 29 receptions, 456 yards, 0 TDs
Ridley: 26 receptions, 402 yards, 3 TDs

We aren’t suggesting that Ridley necessarily overtakes Jones, but they are could be closer to a 1A and 1B on an elite passing offense in 2020. Ridley’s similar players also includes two of 2019’s big breakouts: Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay. Some of the same elements that allowed for Godwin’s huge year are also present for Ridley this season.

WR Adam Thielen

Don’t call it a comeback. But Adam Thielen’s 2019 season was ruined by a leg muscle injury. He tried to return too soon, and wasn’t really back to close to himself until the playoffs. It’s easy to forget that Thielen had over 100 catches and 1,300 yards on average in the previous two seasons.

Now, add in that his receiving partner, Stefon Diggs, has moved on. The second option on this team will most likely be either rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson or tight end Irv Smith, Jr. He’s the clear No. 1 on a team that should be around average in passing yards and touchdowns.

Thielen is well-positioned for a Top 12 season, just like he produced in both 2017 and 2018. He doesn’t even need to have a lot of things go his way to envision that. He just needs to stay healthy this year and he will be a guy that can give you top wide receiver numbers at a price outside the Top 12 at the position.

TE T.J. Hockenson

In recent years, later round tight ends have provided a big boost, and if you can find one, you will be in great shape. One clear target is T.J. Hockenson. He’s entering his second year, and was an elite prospect at the position. His rookie year wasn’t actually that bad by rookie TE standards, especially when you consider that quarterback Matt Stafford did not play half the season.

We’ve seen second-year tight ends provide some huge breakouts, most recently Mark Andrews last year and George Kittle in 2018. Hockenson is the best bet to join that list in 2020.

RB JK Dobbins

The case for Dobbins as a league-winning target is pretty straightforward. He plays on a team that should be among the league leaders in rushing. The incumbent starter, Mark Ingram, is 31 years old, and his injury at the end of the previous season had an impact on the Ravens in the playoffs. Dobbins can carve out a successful role in a platoon with Ingram. You may need patience, but if his role expands as the season progresses, he could provide fantasy value in the playoffs.

RB Ronald Jones

Ronald Jones is a target as a guy going outside the Top 30 at running back currently. Jones is still only 23 years old. Right now, the market is splitting votes on Jones and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Whoever wins the job has the potential to be a fantasy starter. Here’s a look at factors involved in running back booms. The most common situation that produced fantasy gold was a veteran in a perceived platoon with a rookie.

“More booms have come from ‘the other guy’ in platoon situations when a rookie is involved, than the actual rookie. Sometimes the allure of potential provides great value the other way. Some of these were veterans who had prior big years, some had the best yet to come.” Since that was written in 2014, Devonta Freeman finished as the top-scoring running back after being drafted behind rookie Tevin Coleman. Chris Carson emerged when Rashaad Penny was expected to be the starter in Seattle as a rookie.

So this situation presents some value. Ronald Jones looks like a solid value play to emerge in Tampa Bay, with a decent path to starting numbers.

QB Jared Goff

Many winning strategies involve waiting on quarterback and taking multiple undervalued options late. Part of that strategy in 2020 should include Jared Goff, who is being drafted as the 18th quarterback off the board on average.

Goff has finished 12th, 7th, and 13th in fantasy points the last three years
He led the NFL in pass attempts in 2019, and threw for over 4,600 yards, but had only 22 touchdown passes, after having 60 combined TDs the previous two years

Goff is projected to be in the top five in the NFL in passing volume in our QB projections. The primary question is whether his touchdown rate will positively regress to make him a better value. The list of guys in the last decade who managed to have a below average pass TD rate while having 4.500 passing yards includes a player who emerged as a surprise MVP the next year (Matt Ryan in 2016) and three others that averaged 28 touchdown passes the next year, and an average finish as the 7th-highest scoring QB.

So the public is down on Goff (he’s going lower than where he has ranked each of the last three years), but there’s an argument that he could see some positive improvement if the Rams’ offense can bounce back from a mildly disappointing year.