NFL Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a Staff Pick based on review of the matchup.
• In our "similar team" analysis for playoff teams, Detroit's most comparable teams performed poorly, with a weighted ATS% in the first playoff game of 34%.
• The biggest factor is Detroit's defensive rank, particularly their pass defense, where they rank 27th in passing yards allowed, and 29th in net passing yards allowed per attempt (6.7), worst among playoff teams.
• Since 2010, teams with a net pass yards per attempt allowed per attempt of 6.5 or worse are 3-9 SU and 3-9 ATS at home in the Wild Card Round, with the most recent being last year's Minnesota loss at home to the Giants.
• The Rams also are better than their raw rating, if we account for the games Stafford was injured and missed. Further, the Rams were also worse without RB Kyren Williams (some which corresponded to Stafford being out.) With Williams and Stafford both in the lineup, the Rams are +5.4 (compared to -5.3 overall, and +2.3 for full season average).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 18.
• Model factors include Jacksonville's poor rushing efficiency numbers in both the last seven games and for full season, Tennessee's recent red zone defense numbers, and the Titans high rate of rushing touchdowns.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Week 16.
• In this matchup of completely movable object (Washington's defense) versus utterly resistible force (the Jets offense), we’ll take the plus-money and go against the worst offense in the league.
• The laundry list of Jets ineptness on offense is endless. They are last in total yards, yards per drive, points per drive, and plays per drive. They are dead last in passing touchdowns (9) but make up for that by also being last in rushing touchdowns (4).

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 16.
• The line has been moving against the Packers, as they still have significant skill injuries, as Christian Watson is doubtful to play, and WR Jayden Reed and WR Dontayvion Wicks are questionable, and the team's roster moves suggest they are concerned about WR depth.
• Packers also have S Darnell Savage as doubtful and CB Jaire Alexander as questionable.
• Green Bay's defense is struggling on defense, getting gashed on the ground against the Giants and then lit up by Tampa Bay. The rush defense is faltering at 4.6 yards per carry allowed, and prior to the Tampa Bay game where they were motly beaten through the air, had given up at least 140 rushing yards in five straight.

Staff notes:

• This is a borderline playable model pick, but is playable by the model odds (52%) if you can get the -3 line at below -110 payout odds, like the -105 currently availablle.
• Indianapolis is a very popular side in this one in our pool data, and so far this year, when a team has had a +28% difference between win odds and popularity, and the line has moved more than a point, the team (like Atlanta) with line movement and low popularity is 7-4 SU and ATS this year.
• So far this year, when one team is favored but the other team is drawing more than 60% of public picks, the unpopular favorite is 6-3.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick in Week 14.
• The Rams won three straight after a mid-season slump, and have won the last two games by a combined 40 points, covering both comfortably. 
• The Rams offense has been better since the return of RB Kyren Williams, rushing the ball well each of the last two games, and have also played better since Matthew Stafford returned from injury. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for NFL Week 14.
• This line is available at different places at either +3 or +3.5 with varying juice, but we prefer the +3.5 even at -120 in this case. Since 2010, 8.5% of games lined at +3 or +3.5 have finished at a 3-point loss margin. 
• Among the model factors in this one are the later season home game for the underdog, Chicago's rush defense numbers, Chicago's high rate of rushing TDs to passing TDs, and Detroit's low rate of converting first downs by rush recently.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 12.
• Chicago should have beaten Detroit in QB Justin Fields' first game back from injury, losing a two-score lead in the final four minutes.
• The Bears rush defense numbers are a big model factor here, as they have been shutting down opponent rushing games, something that is of elevated importance for a Vikings' team now operating with Josh Dobbs at QB instead of Kirk Cousins. The Bears are allowing just over 3 yards per rush and under 60 rush yards a game over their last seven games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 11.
• Green Bay, losers of 5 of the last 6, have underperformed in points scored relative to yards, racking up over 390 yards of total offense in each of the last two games, but only scoring 39 combined points. Green Bay's rushing offense, in particular, is playing better now that Aaron Jones has returned.
• The Chargers have overperformed in some regression areas like turnovers in recent games.
• The Chargers poor offensive rush per play numbers are also a model factor in this one.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 10.
• These are two teams going in opposite directions, and the Bills' defense has taken a lot of hits over the last month.
• Buffalo hasn't had their bye yet, and have been in close games against inferior opponents since returning from the long London trip. They've lost starters Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones, and have several other defensive players on the injury report as questionable this week.
• Their three best defensive games, by yards allowed, were the first three of the year, and since then, they've given up 374 yards per game and nearly 22 first downs a game.
• Denver's defense got off to a horrific start, but has put up their best defensive perfomances in recent weeks, beating Kansas City and Green Bay before their bye, and holding the Chiefs down in the other matchup before that.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick at the +6 (-105) line currently commonly available.
• Sam Howell of Washington has made great strides in the last two weeks of getting the ball out quicker (after being on pace to shatter the sack record) and that has helped the Washington offense as they nearly beat Philadelphia (and scored 31 points) and then won at New England.
• That growth is also reflected in this stat, as Howell struggled early in the season with pressure, but excelled against the blitz in his last game.
• Seattle has been inconsistent on offense (three games with 13 or fewer first downs and are coming off a poor offensive game at Baltimore.
• With Seattle also ranking near the bottom of the league in first downs allowed, we like some value on Washington's pass game efficiency improvement and high volume passing attack.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast pick, but is playable as a "fade the power ratings" pick, as games where our predictive ratings model gives a team 40% or lower chance of covering are actually 14-7-1 ATS this year, often in cases where injuries or other circumstances are impacting spread.
• In this case, Cincinnati's power rating is influenced by early terrible offensive performances while Joe Burrow was struggling while playing through a calf injury. Burrow was averaging a woeful 5.3 yards per attempt and threw only two touchdowns in his first four starts. In the last three, he is back to normal, with 7.5 yards per attempt and eight TD passes. So we see value when lines are incorporating those early injury results.
• Buffalo's defense is going the other way, with several key injuries, and they have gone from allowing 253 yards per game in the first three games this season, to 370 yards per game over the last five. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast Model spread pick for Week 9.
• Carolina is coming off their first win of the year, but still ranks 31st in net yards per pass.
• Carolina's rush defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL, and unlike the last matchup against a poor rushing Houston team, Indianapolis has a good rushing offense that has been getting better as the year goes on, and Jonathan Taylor is getting worked in as the season goes on.
• Indianapolis has 9 turnovers in the last three games, masking some of their offensive improvement, but they should have some turnover regression value.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 9.
• The signs are pointing to Matthew Stafford missing the game, as the Rams signed another quarterback this week, and they also have their bye week next week, allowing more time off.
• This spread likely doesn't reflect the full value of what the line will be if Stafford is officially ruled out, as the look-ahead line was -1.5 Rams before last Sunday, and Stafford should be worth more than 4.5 points compared to an unsettled and uncertain backup QB situation with Los Angeles.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick after the news and line move related to Brock Purdy.
• Brock Purdy is entering concussion protocol after the Week 7 Monday Night game with Minnesota, and Sam Darnold is likely to start at QB for San Francisco, especially given the short week and that this is just emerging more than 24 hours after the last game ended.
• So far this year, when our predictive rating has a game at 40% or lower (because the line has usually moved due to injuries), underdogs are 9-2 ATS if our Ensemble Forecast model is playable or a lean toward the underdog. 
• San Francisco is also dealing with several other offensive injuries that have impacted the team in the last two losses, including Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey (playing through injury).

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Week 8 as of today.
• Winless Carolina will look to become the last team to get a win this season, coming off their bye week.
• The Panthers' rush defense weakness is counteracted by the Texans' poor rushing efficiency (3.2 yards per carry).
• Another area of regression in this matchup is related to turnovers, as Houston is +6, while Carolina is -3. In our adjusted turnover differential (which also looks at turnovers on downs and missed field goals), Houston is near the top (+8) and Carolina near the bottom (-11). Over the last two weeks, teams with the worst adjusted turnover differential in the matchup are 19-8 ATS.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick at +240) for Week 7.
• San Francisco is dealing with several key injuries on offense coming off last week, as WR Deebo Samuel has been ruled out for multiple weeks, OL Trent Williams is doubtful, and RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable for the game, and could be limited even if he plays.
• San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per point, scoring a point for every 12.1 yards gained this year, but any impact to their key offensive players could alter that efficiency.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 5.
• This line has been moving in Las Vegas' favor, as we identified it as an Upset Pick last Wednesday when the Raiders were the slight dog. 
• This is a game where the model and stat factors point to regression for both teams, in opposite directions. The Raiders have been among the worst in the league at turnovers, ranking dead last with a -9 turnover differential through four games.
• Green Bay, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in yards, plays per drive, and yards per drive; the Packers also rank 26th in both first downs gained and first downs allowed. But they rank closer to average in actual scoring, thanks to being near the top of the league in red zone touchdown rate and by converting 100% of field goals so far.
• Basically, Green Bay has had a lot of really poor drives, but has tended to score a touchdown on drives where they move the ball at all. Streaks like that probably can’t last too much longer.
• Packers RB Aaron Jones has also now been ruled out from playing in tonight's game.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model spread pick for NFL Week 5.
• In this heavy weight NFC matchup, the San Francisco 49ers have been the more consistently efficient offense, while Dallas' margins have been inflated by a league-high four defensive and special teams scores.
• San Francisco scored a TD on five of six actual possessions against Arizona (excluding end-of-half kneel downs). The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in scoring on 56% of drives, but that even understates it, as they have had six possessions kneeling/running out the clock at the end of halves. They've scored on two-thirds of the drives they are trying to score.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
• The Vikings have had terrible fumble luck, recovering only 1 of 12 total fumbles (by them or the opponent) in the first three games, as all have been close losses.
• The Panthers' high fumble recovery rate in recent games, as well as the Vikings strong passing numbers and high rate of pass TDs, are other factors.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 3, before any news.
• We are adding it as a Staff Pick to grab the line, now that it has been reported that Dallas' star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL in practice today.
• Our assessment is that Diggs is a valuable player, and if you think he is worth about 1-2 points, you are getting a little extra line value on an already large line, before the market has fully reacted.
• Our models already favor Arizona with the large point spread because of some strong regression factors, including Dallas significantly outperforming their points so far relative to yards gained, and  having a +7 turnover margin through two games.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model underdog spread pick (and our top-rated moneyline play for Week 1, if you would rather play the moneyline).
• Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL this year, and QB Kyler Murray is starting the year on PUP, and the team is likely to start Josh Dobbs, who they acquired via trade two weeks ago, though they have not named a starter between he and rookie Clayton Tune.
• Washington is the most popular spread pick in our pool spread data (with 77% of all pool players taking Washington) and is also being reported as an extremely popular spread pick by sportsbooks, yet the line has not budged.
• Several trends point toward playing the uncertainty of opening day and the points here, while public sentiment is very down on Arizona.
• Over the last 20 years, favorites of 4.5 or more points facing a Week 1 opponent with a new head coach are only 15-24 ATS.
• Over that same span, only 13 Week 1 favorites of 4.5 or more had starting a QB who had started fewer than four games for the franchise. This could include cases like Trey Lance starting last year in San Francisco’s opener, and also cases where a team had a veteran (acquired in the offseason via free agency or trade) who was the starter. That group went 7-5-1 SU. All other bigger Week 1 favorites (with QBs who had played more games for the franchise) were 94-30.
• It rarely comes up, but in that same data set, only five favorites drew an underdog starting a backup QB because the starter was out with injury or suspension, and those favorites only went 2-3 SU.
• Washington's Sam Howell is making his second career start in the NFL, Arizona has a new coach (Jonathan Gannon) and QB, and this game has a lot of uncertainty factors that favor taking the points.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model play for the Conference Championship Round.
• Kansas City opened as the favorite but the market moved to Cincinnati as the favorite on concern over Patrick Mahomes' ankle. That line peaked at -2.5 but has settled back.
• As of right now, Patrick Mahomes is expected to play and be in a rare home dog role, and we'll take the points and discount based on the injury concerns.
• Home underdogs in the Conference Champ Games since 2000 are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model pick for the Divisional Round.
• Both defenses are capable of creating turnovers, and Dallas' offense is certainly capable of putting up a really good performance. But this San Francisco team has been the more consistently dominant defense at stopping opponents (independent of turnovers), has been the more consistently dominant rushing team.
• Dallas' relative weakness on defense is the rush defense, and San Francisco should have an advantage there and in the red zone with that advantage.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the Wild Card round.
• Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson remains out, but his absence is already accounted in the line at this point, while several key players that sat out last week's game, like TE Mark Andrews and RB J.K. Dobbins, will play in this one.
• Since 2002, home favorites in the playoffs are 13-11 SU and 8-16 ATS when playing a division foe.
• Some model angles showing up are the Bengals having a low rush TD percentage in the last seven games, and the Ravens rush defense doing will in the last seven games, things that could play into red zone performance.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick based on likely team motivations and participation.
• The Tennessee Titans cannot improve or diminish their playoff chances, which come down to a Week 18 matchup with Jacksonville for the AFC South title.
• Titans RB Derrick Henry did not practice yesterday, and with the game on a short week, and having no impact on their chances, he is at high risk of missing game.
• There's also a good chance that some other players "rest" for the Week 18 game.
• The Titans have lost and failed to cover in five straight games.
• Rookie QB Malik Willis, who started the last game for an injured Ryan Tannehill, has been very bad, completing just over 50% of his passes, for 4.5 yards per attempt, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass in three starts.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on pick popularity data and team trends.
• Detroit is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data at -2.5 (80% popularity). Over the last five weeks, teams with 75% or higher popularity in spread pools in our data, where the line does not move in that teams favor from the mid-week line, are 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS.
• The Panthers pass defense has been playing at a high level since Steve Wilks took over as interim coach, and are 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games. 
• Detroit has turned their season around by winning 6 of 7, but there are a few indicators that show some negative regression potential. They've been outgained by 142 yards over that span, but have benefited from a +9 turnover differential, and have been converting third downs at a high rate, by passing rather than rushing.
• This is the first time Detroit has been a road favorite since playing at Carolina in 2020. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 15.
• Before last season, we wrote about the lack of home field advantage in NFC East division games. Going back to 2002, home teams had won around 51% of home games, and covered the spread less than 46% of the time. Specific to the Giants-Commanders rivalry, the home team since 2002 is 21-19-1 SU and 18-23 ATS.
• The teams may look like they are going in opposite directions, but that’s exaggerated by schedule (the Giants have been handled by the Cowboys and Eagles in the last four games) and close game luck.
• Washington also has extreme fumble luck in their recent run. A lot of their 6-1-1 stretch can be summed up with better turnover luck, and going 4-1-1 in close games.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on team trends and public popularity.
• Minnesota is the second-most popular spread pick all season, according to our pool pick data, at 83% on the opening Minnesota -4.5 line.
• So far this year, when a team has had 75%+ spread popularity according to our public pick pool data, and the point spread line has still moved against them, they are 5-10 ATS and only 7-8 SU (all as favorites).
• Minnesota has now been outscored.(by 1 point) on the year despite having a 10-3 record, and ranks dead last in yards allowed. They have allowed 800 more yards than they have gained so far this year, so that their points profile is actually better than the underlying play.
• Minnesota has allowed five straight opponents to have over 400 total yards and over 300 net passing yards.
• While the Colts' offense hasn't been great, it's been dependent on schedule, where they played a lot of tough defenses. The four best yardage games have come against teams ranking in the bottom 10 overall in defensive yards allowed, and Matt Ryan and the passing game should have way more opportunities than normal.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and against public popularity.
• Seattle is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data all year in the NFL, with 82% of the public taking Seattle.
• Since head coach Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over, the Panthers are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS
• Carolina’s defense (and particularly the pass defense) has been very good over the last seven games. Opposing starting QBs are averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt since Wilks took over coaching duties. Carolina has held five of the last six opponents under 350 yards in regulation, with the only exception being the Bengals.
• Seattle, meanwhile, has underperformed point spread expectations in its last three games. On offense, running back Kenneth Walker sustained an injury in the last game and will miss this game, as will backup Deejay Dallas. 
• The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed, and nearly allowed a limited Rams team with backups at key positions on offense to score 27 points last week.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick for Week 12 according to our models.
• Baltimore's passing offense has been impacted by injuries after a hot start, and Lamar Jackson has had only six touchdown passes in his last seven games, and has been under 7.0 yards per attempt in six of seven.
• Jacksonville is only 1-6 in close games but has outscored opponents on the year, and the only game they lost by more than 8 was in the last game at KC before the bye.
• Jacksonville has poor fumble recovery luck (35%) and a poor turnover margin in the last seven games, providing some positive regression potential our models are picking up.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread model pick for Week 10 at +10.5, but you can also still find it for +11 at some books.
• Before the 2021 season, we wrote about the small home field advantage in the NFC East divisional games, and adding in the results since then, home teams in games involving New York/Philadelphia/Washington are 52-68-2 ATS (43.4%) since 2002.
• Philadelphia's turnover margin per game (+1.9) is more than double any other team this year and a possible source for regression, since only one team since 1978 (Washington, 1983) has finished with a better turnover margin than that over a full season.
• Washington has played better on defense since their first loss to Philadelphia, holding 5 of the last 6 opponents under 325 total yards.
  
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick at +6, and if you can get the +6.5 still available at some books, grab it.
• Bills QB Josh Allen is being evaluated for a ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and nerve injury to his right elbow. The team said they would update on Wednesday.
• If Allen misses this game, or is limited or impacted with an injury to his throwing elbow, this line is a huge value, and is a decent price regardless on the Vikings.

Staff notes:

• This is a top playable spread pick according to our models in Week 8.
• Further, Adam Schefter just reported that Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a hip injury that could keep him out 4-6 weeks, and his loss could have an impact on the Bengals' big play offense. 
• If you can still find this at +3.5 take it, but it's good at +3 which is where the spread moved immediately upon the news coming out, at many books.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
• Atlanta is near the bottom of the NFL in both yards for and against, and has been outgained by 688 yards for the season.
• Atlanta's offense has been worse without RB Cordarrelle Patterson (on IR the last three games) as they have averaged 5.8 fewer points per game, and 94.3 fewer yards per game.
• The Atlanta pass defense is dead last in sacks, and last in pressure rate, while teams are throwing  at a high rate and averaging the 3rd-best net yards per pass against in the NFL.
• Carolina is coming off its best offensive performance, with QB P.J. Walker in his second start, as he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt against Tampa Bay.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but a pick based on trends and player news.
• This division game in New York is the type that has had little home field advantage (close proximity rivals who both play outdoors) and the Patriots specifically have played well in New York under Belichick, going 14-8 ATS.
• The Patriots have had turnover issues, but are positive regression candidates based on their high INT rate, and opponent fumble rate (The Bears recovered all 5 of their own fumbles last week).
• The Jets lost RB Breece Hall last week, and he was the big play threat that was providing a big chunk of offense and preventing them from having QB Zach Wilson throw a lot in recent weeks.
• The Jets will also be without WR Corey Davis who leads the team in receiving yards.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model pick against the spread in Week 7.
• Games in the AFC North (played outdoors by teams within geographic proximity) have tended to show low home field advantage. Since 2002, AFC North home teams have covered 46.2% of the time in division games.
• Home division favorites of 5 or more have only covered 40% of the time (35-53-2), with Baltimore specifically going only 8-18-1 ATS in division home games when favored by 5 or more points in that span.
• Some other positive regression factors that our models are picking up include Cleveland's turnover margin and low turnover forced rate so far, and Baltimore's low penalty rate.

Staff notes:

• This is a top playable spread and moneyline pick according to our models for Week 5.
• The Chargers are also the most popular spread pick in football pools so far this week, and the most over-picked team (relative to their win odds) according to our Football Pick'em Picks data.
• 94% of the public is picking them to win outright. (So far this year, when there is at least a 30% difference between win odds and pick popularity in our data, the favorite is 1-3 straight up.)
• Denver has significantly underperformed this year, and is coming off an ugly Thursday Night performance against Indianapolis where they only managed nine points.
• The Broncos are 31st in points scored after five weeks, but they are a better (18th) in terms of yards gained. That makes for some positive regression potential for Denver.
• As bad as Denver has been, over the long term, NFL teams don't score a touchdown on only 21% of their red zone trips, as the Broncos have done so far this year.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• The Rams offensive line is struggling, as they rank 30th in rush yards and have allowed 16 sacks (Stafford is on pace for a career-high sack rate right now at 9.6% of all dropbacks)
• Dallas, meanwhile, ranks third in points allowed, has not allowed 20 points in any game yet this year, and has generated 15 sacks in 4 games (tied for 2nd-most in NFL).
• We'll grab the underdog getting over a field goal in a matchup where they should have a decided advantage on the line when the Rams are on offense. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated model plays for Week 5 against the spread.
• Jacksonville has a really nice point differential (+38) after four games, but ranks first, in yards per point margin. This represents how points are related to yards gained and Jacksonville is way overperforming and a candidate for regression.
• Jacksonville is also not used to the favorite role here. The last two times they were favored were two outright losses to Houston last season, and they've lost four in a row as a betting favorite and haven't won a game when favored since the 2019 season.
• We'll grab this line while it's at the key number of 7 in a matchup where the Texans have played well recently.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model pick against the spread for Week 5.
• We were waiting to hear about QB Daniel Jones' status for the game on Sunday morning in London after he had an ankle injury last week, and backup Tyrod Taylor left the game with a concussion.
• Now that it's confirmed QB Jones will start for the Giants we are moving it to the Staff Picks.
• It's currently available at some books at the +8 for now, but is playable at +7.5 as well.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our models at 56.2% cover odds.
• Detroit also has some injury concerns to key offensive skill players. RB D'Andre Swift is likely to miss the game with a shoulder injury, and while WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has avoided a serious long-term ankle injury, that doesn't mean he will be playing this week, and his status is very much in doubt.
• Detroit is 27th in both rushing yards allowed and rushing yards per carry allowed, a factor that could keep a team like Seattle, that wants to run the ball and not rely on passing constantly, in the game.
• Seattle's pass D has been bad so far this year, but if they are catching Detroit without their two best playmakers healthy, they can compete.

Staff notes:

• This is a model pick with 53% cover odds according to our Ensemble Forecast.
• It's also a play against overreaction to the Mac Jones' injury. 
• These two teams have very similar yardage profiles through three weeks, and Green Bay's offense has not been explosive. 
• The primary difference in the Patriots' start has been a terrible tunover margin, where Jones had thrown five interceptions and the Patriots have eight overall, 31st in the NFL.
• Belichick is 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS as a dog of 7.5 or more since 2000, including an outright win in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start in Week 1 of 2016, with Tom Brady suspended.

Staff notes:

• Our models do not have this as a playable spread, but we are making this a staff pick based on injury news and trying to grab value on a short rest week for both teams.
• Miami QB Tua Tagoavailoa left the game briefly on Sunday after a hit, where there was speculation that it could be a head injury but the team said it was a back injury. (You be the judge.)
• Tagoavailoa isn't practicing yet this week, and comments by head coach Mike McDaniel were curious at best, saying he was going to try to play, but also that he would be limited in practice and questionable if the game was on Sunday.
• Several other key players are not practicing yet, though the coach said he thinks "most, if not all" will play.
• Miami was also just out-gained by Buffalo significantly despite winning, so there is some value in playing against the 3-0 team that isn't as good as their record, with a lot of injury question marks.
• We have already seen this line moving to 4 at a lot of books, so shop around for your best line.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick (53.8%) according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• The Jaguars are coming off a 24-0 win over Indianapolis in Week 2, and looking far more competent this year under HC Doug Pederson compared to the Urban Meyer disaster a year ago.
• Last year's first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (after averaging 6.0 as a rookie) and has found a connection with new WR Christian Kirk.
• Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in the Thursday Week 2 game at Kansas City. While he could still play through the painful injury by Sunday, we'll grab this line at a touchdown for value against either a limited Herbert or backup QB Chase Daniel.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model pick against the spread on Sunday morning, at 55.3% cover odds.
• This line has been moving up from 4.5 points earlier in the week.
• We like the matchup of the Bengals WR against the Jets secondary, as the Jets haven't faced a high volume of passes so far because they have trailed most of the both games, but they rank in the bottom 5 in net yards allowed.
• The Bengals WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a matchup problem, and the Bengals should have an opportunity for big plays.
• Cincinnati's 0-2 start, and their loss last year in an upset at the Jets, should have them focused and ready to play aggressively in this game.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Colts a 52.6% chance of covering this line.
• The Chiefs are an extremely popular pick so far. In spread pool data from PoolGenius, 84% of the public is taking the Chiefs -6.5, easily the largest discrepancy so far this year, and an indication of public sentiment on this game.
• So far this year, teams with >70% ATS pool pick popularity are 2-5 ATS.
• Indianapolis is coming off getting shutout by the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a game where they were missing their top two wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce).
• Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off getting shutout the week before are 19-9-3 ATS.
• The Indianapolis passing game was horrific without Michael Pittman, but we are grabbing this on the likelihood that he is back for Week 3. Rookie Alec Pierce, who also missed the last game with a concussion, profiles as the deep threat for this offense.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models. 
• We want to jump on this line before it gets too pricey at the 3-point spread, or moves below a FG. Right now, most books have the juice heavier on taking the underdog, so shop around.
• Carolina has lost two close games to start 0-2, but rank 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense.
• Saints QB Jameis Winston was revealed to play on Sunday with four fractured vertebrae, and he took 6 sacks while also throwing 3 interceptions and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
• Winston was 1-for-7 with two interceptions on passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play for Sunday's game. 
• So we are playing on the Panthers' D and against Winston's health status and ability to make throws while playing through the back injury.
   

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast Model give the Falcons a 53.5% chance of covering the spread.
• The Rams really struggled on the offensive line in the season opener, as Stafford was sacked seven times (in 48 drop backs) and they averaged less than three yards per carry.
• There are also concerns about the offense, receiver depth, and running back situation, for a team laying so many points.
• Atlanta blew a late 26-10 lead against New Orleans, but was a pleasant surprise in Week 1.
• The Falcons gained over 400 yards against the Saints defense, and the defense also frustrated the Saints for three quarters, sacking Jameis Winston four times. Atlanta lost the game by a point but won first downs 26 to 18.
• Given all the Matthew Stafford offseason elbow news, the way the Rams looked on offense in the opener, and the Falcons showing signs of life, we are adding this early pick above the key number of 10 points.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives New England a 55.2% chance of covering the spread.
• New England is coming off a loss in the opener, and Belichick is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 2 coming off an opening loss.
• Pittsburgh was atrocious on offense last week, but got the win over Cincinnati thanks to a +5 turnover margin and several kicking miscues.
• The Steelers also lost 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives the Jets a 54.9% chance of covering the spread.
• The Jets lost by 15 to the Ravens but out-gained Baltimore by over 100 yards in the opener, and were ahead in yards even before the late fourth quarter garbage time.
• They were done in by a couple of big passing plays from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but this week's opponent with QB Jacoby Brissett lacks a potent passing game.
• The Browns averaged 4.3 yards per pass attempt in the win at Carolina, a year after Brissett averaged a woeful 5.7 yards per attempt as a replacement starter in Miami.
• We'll play against the favorite with a bad passing attack that likes to grind things out, and on the team that performed better in Week 1 than the score indicates.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Steelers a 56% chance of covering the spread.
• The Steelers-Bengals rivalry is one that has shown no home field advantage over a lengthy period of time. Since 2002, the home team is only 17-25 SU and 17-24-1 ATS in this series.
• Pittsburgh is 18-4 SU and 15-6-1 over the last 20 years in Cincinnati, and is 6-2 SU as a road dog over that time period.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Giants a 55% chance of covering the spread.
• The Giants were one of our preseason over picks in our Preseason Staff Picks, while the Titans have a lot of negative red flag factors entering the season.
• New York was substantially worse at the end of last season when QB Daniel Jones was out injured, and the team made what looks like a substantial coaching upgrade in firing Joe Judge and hiring former Bills OC Brian Daboll.
• Tennessee overachieved expectations a year ago, going 12-5 with a point differential more in line with a 10-7 team.
• The Titans also traded away star WR A.J. Brown this offseason, and has major turnover on offense.
• On September 1st, DE Harold Landry, who led the team in sacks in 2021, tore his ACL and will now miss the rest of the season, adding a late impact to the team that they haven't been able to prepare for or address in the offseason.