Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trends and lineup analysis.
• We will largely just copy and update the notes from our previous Clemson pick in the Sweet 16:
• Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.9 (16 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
• Clemson is 11-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
• Alabama plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, already beating Alabama outright in November as a road dog, beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round, and beating Arizona by 5 as a 7-point dog in the last game..

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and matchup analysis.
• Our review of lineups and adjustments has this line closer than the 3.5 spread (about 1.7 point difference) with a big factor being excluding some games where Creighton did not have all starters healthy.
• In addition, this looks like the type of matchup that has given Tennessee relative problems. Tennessee's results show a strong relationship to the quality of the opponent defense, and they have performed worse relative to expectations against better defenses.
• Against top 30 defenses in Ken Pom (Creighton is 23rd), Tennessee is only 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS. They are also 3-4 ATS against 31-75 ranked defenses, compared to 13-6-1 ATS against all others.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model pick for Sunday.
• Some of the model factors include Colorado's low 3-point rate, and Marquette is 10-4-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in three-point rate (compared to 11-9 ATS all others).
• Colorado also rates poorly in turnovers on offense, while Marquette is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. We see a big advantage there as Colorado is 0-4 ATS this year against teams inside the top 50 in defensive turnover rate, and Marquette is 10-5 ATS against teams outside the top 150 in turnover rate.
• This Marquette team also got Tyler Kolek back healthy, and after a slow first half, they turned it on as a team in the second half against Western Kentucky, and look to be back at full strength.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on roster trends.
• Oregon put up a third straight dominant performance against a high-level tournament team, now beating Arizona, Colorado, and South Carolina, the first two who are still playing this weekend.
• Oregon has faced a lot of injuries this year, and this recent run started a few games earlier when they shifted their distribution on offense, concentrating usage on their three best players, N'Faly Dante, Jermaine Couisnard, and Jackson Shelstad. Those three combined for 74 of the 87 (with Couisnard going for 40) in the win over South Carolina.
• It presents a strength on strength here, as Creighton also plays a shorter bench, and we have a great big man matchup here between Dante and Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton. Since the start of March, Dante has made 58-of-69 shots and has averaged 19.8 points a game over this run.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model pick for Friday in the NCAA Tournament, and also a pick based on lineup trends.
• Wisconsin had a down stretch in Big Ten conference play, after a really strong start. And then they closed strong, including the OT win over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
• That conference stretch corresponded with backup PG Kamari McGee missing 11 straight games, and also some extreme opponent three point rate performance. 
• Wisconsin's depth at point guard after McGee is thin, as Chucky Hepburn had to play more minutes, and Max Klesmit would have to fill that role if Hepburn needed a break while McGee was out.
• Since McGee's return and the Badgers having a full rotation, they have averaged a Game Score of +21.2 (elite top seed level) while finishing 5-1 ATS.
• Wisconsin finished 14th in opponent 3-point FG% against in Big Ten play (out of 14) and as a result ranks near the bottom of Division 1 at 37% allowed. 
• James Madison is at the other extreme, 2nd in 3 point % against (29%), and that started in their OT win over Michigan State in the first game, where the Spartans went a dreadful 1-for-20 from deep. 

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on a roster trend analysis and matchup review.
• Alabama has been struggling on defense, all year, but particularly down the stretch, going 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS over their final 10, with the last 5 non-covers coming by double digits vs the spread.
• If you look at their defensive performances, their three worst have all come since the last week of February. The only two (out of the last 10 games) that were better than their season average, just barely, were in games their opponents shot 17% and 20% from three. So unless Charleston has really bad shooting luck from outside, they have a really good chance to light up this Alabama defense.
• Charleston is also playing better than their raw season numbers, after a slow start at 1-3. They've won 12 in row. Three of their best five offensive performances for the year have come since February 29th.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, and a play based on recent lineup and roster trends and other factors.
• This particular line is off some other movement, where Drake has moved to a slight favorite at other books this morning, you can also play it at -1, but we are listing this one in case you can still grab at FanDuel.
• Drake is better than their full season number. If we isolate the games by lineup similarity to their recent usage in the MVC Tournament, and exclude the eight most dissimilar games (due to player injuries and minute distribution) their average rises to +11.7, two points better than the season average.
• Washington State was playing well in most of Pac-12 play, up until their big upset of Arizona in Tucson. Since that result, though, they closed 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, and their average Game Score was +8.9, nearly four points below the season average.
• There's a lineup-related reason, as they suddenly started playing their two posts far less and playing a smaller lineup. The combo of Oscar Cluff and Rueben Chinyelu have averaged only 27 minutes in that run, compared to a combined 39 minutes in the previous 6. We cannot find an injury-related reason for the shift, but it has maintained through Pac-12 play. The biggest issue in the decline is also defense, particularly opponent shooting on two-point attempts.
• As an additional factor, we also like that this game is played in Omaha, a short two-hour drive across I-80, while Washington State is traveling from the Pacific Time Zone.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick for Thursday's First Round, and it's also a play based on trend analysis.
• Illinois is a top 10 offensive team but their defensive numbers are very poor for a top at-large, and they rank near the bottom of D1 in turnovers forced.
• Recent high seeds with that profile have underachieved. 2021 2 seed Ohio State losing to Oral Roberts is a prominent example, but it also includes 2021 2 seed Iowa not covering in first round, then getting blown out by Oregon, 2018 4 seeds Arizona and Wichita State losing outrgiht to Buffalo and Marshall respectively.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, and a pick based on roster trends.
• One word: Obaseki. Okay, more than one, but after a terrible stretch through SEC play where they really struggled on defense, Buzz Williams went to a true-3 guard offense, inserting Manny Obaseki to play as a starter with Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor. 
• The results have been huge, a Game Score over +22, scoring over 80 points a game, and the three combining for 75 in the win over Kentucky yesterday. Obaseki (40% from three) has brought an element this team was lacking, as they were really struggling on offense playing a bigger player at the 3 with Radford and Taylor all year, who was a worse shooter.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
• Virginia has really struggled on offense down the stretch, with four really poor performances on offense in the last 7 games. The average Game Score has only been +3.6 over that span, after being over +11 in all games prior.
• Boston College is coming off a 21-point win over Clemson in the previous round. Three of BC's best four Game Scores have come in the last four contests. While some of that has been driven by poor opponent 3-point rates, they have also dominated on the offensive glass for four straight games, and limited opponents to under 48% on two-point shots in all four, after doing that only three times in ACC play up until that point.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
• Stanford is better with the current lineup playing. In the 13 games with the current lineup (which starts with freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle taking over, and excludes the three games missed by Spencer Jones), the Cardinal have a +7.8 rating versus +4.6 in all other games.
• Washington State has had a great season, and has been better overall since Jaylen Wells became a starter. However, they closed poorly after the Arizona upset win at Tucson, and it has largely been because of defense. The last four opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% or better (and it is not driven by extreme outside shooting splits), after holding 8 of the 9 previous opponents under 50% effective FG%.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and matchups.
• Our raw power rating difference (7.8) is very similar to the game line but we have reason to believe that there is value on Kansas State when digging in.
• Iowa State's rating is a bit inflated by their performance against cupcakes. Against the weakest 8 opponents in the non-conference, they had an average Game Score of +27.0 vs. +16.8 in all other games.
• Iowa State was substantially better at home than road/neutral situations this year, Iowa State's average home Game Score was +23.8 and road/neutral was +13.8 (average venue expectation should be adjusted for in the Game Score, so these are extreme splits after already accounting for that).
• Since K-State went to starting lineup switch to go with more guards, starting Dai Dai Ames and bringing David N'Guessan off the bench, their average rating is +12.4 over 11 games, versus +8.8 for all previous games.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
• Arkansas has played much better recently after a year full of lineup turnover and inconsistency and injuries.
• In the most similar games to their recent rotation usage, they are +3 points better than the full season average.
• In the last 7 games with the current lineup, they are 6-1 ATS and a +15.6 Game Score average, similar to their preseason expectation.
• The only bad performance they have had during that stretch was against Vanderbilt, in what was Vandy's single best Game Score result of the season. Trevon Brazile for Arkansas fouled out after only 17 minutes of playing in that game, and Arkansas had to use different post rotations due to foul trouble.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our lineup trend analysis.
• Milwaukee is better than their full season power rating (and the spread is in line with our full season rating for both teams), because of numerous injuries and lineup changes and the current lineup being an improvement over their previous performance.
• The team's best player and point guard BJ Freeman missed 8 games and didn't start in 5 others while working back from injury, and the team is better when he is fully healthy.
• Milwaukee also replaced several inefficient shooters with better offensive players, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and the current lineup is much better at surrounding Freeman with guys that can hit shots. 
• As a result, we would put this at closer to Milwaukee +1.5 and see it as a playable opportunity on current form due to current lineup improvement.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model pick for Friday, and also a play based on lineup analysis.
• Ball State's average Game Score has been much better once we account for the earlier games Davion Bailey missed, and Ball State just put up a strong performance to get a win in the last game despite being without leading scorer Bashir Jihad, who missed with back tightness after a fall in the previous game. Ball State is now playing to earn a spot into the MAC Tournament in this game and it's a de facto playoff game for them.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on our With Or Without You analysis and lineup trends.
• Florida Gulf Coast hosts Queens in the 7 vs. 8 game in the first round of the Atlantic Sun tonight.
• FGCU's current lineup has been used for the last 12 games (other than senior night, when two quickly came off the bench), and over that span they are 9-3 ATS and -0.2 Game Score, compared to -8.0 Game Score average for the first 19 games.
• Isaiah Thompson and Cyrus Largie had both missed games in the middle of the season, when the team struggled, and they are better with the current lineup, while the current spread is in line with the full season rating.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• In addition, we like this play based on recent form and news.
• Xavier coach Sean Miller has been rumored as a candidate to move to Ohio State after the Buckeyes fired Chris Holtmann on Feb. 14th. Xavier has played poorly in the last three games, and over the last 10 games, Xavier has an average power rating of only +5.7, compared to +13.4 in the first 17 games.
• DePaul has been slightly better (by about 3 points on average) in games that point guard Chico Carter has played, though he has gone 0-10 from three-point range in the last three games since returning from a rib injury that caused him to miss 7 straight Big East games.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-5 ATS (54.1%). Road favorites rated above 55.0%, like Utah State, have gone 19-10 ATS this year.
• Fresno State is very thin, having lost two starters for the season in the last three weeks, and center Enoch Boakye has also missed the last two games and his status is unknown. If Boakye misses the game, Fresno State will have be playing walk-ons off the bench, and have no one taller than 6'7" playing.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, playable picks on home underdogs are 20-12-1 ATS.
• Houston is 1-5 ATS in Big 12 conference games in their first year in the conference, and have shown a strong performance split on opponent quality, playing 7.2 points worse after adjusting for expectations, when playing the top 16 toughest games on the schedule versus the 10 easiest opponents.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Miami is not a deep team and has dealt with a lot of missed games among the starters with injury.
• The current starting lineup of Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Matthew Cleveland, KyShawn George and Norchad Omier have had only three games all year where all were in the starting lineup.
• Freshman KyShawn George just missed all of one game and most of the other with injury, but returned to the lineup in the last game.
• In the 10 games where George starts and plays at least 20 minutes, Miami's power rating is +14.1, compared to +7.4 in all other games, so there could be some value in Miami's lineup being better than their full season numbers.
• Miami opponents have made 40% of threes (49-of-123) over the last five games, much higher than the full season rate of 31%, and provides another area of positive regression potential for Miami.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Wednesday.
• Penn State's leading scorer, Kanye Clary, missed a couple of games with a facial injury, and Penn State actually surged to two of their best performances. Veteran point guard Ace Baldwin (transfer from VCU) took over the full point guard duties and has had 29 assists in the last two games, and Clary came off the bench in the last two.
• Penn State is 4-0 ATS the spread with the current lineup and has put up their two best Game Scores all year.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Houston Christian opponents have shot 62% from two-point range over the last three games, 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (54%) at -4, and you can currently get -3.5 at some books.
• Some model factors include Baltimore's defensive numbers, high rushing yards per game and Kansas City's low rate of rushing first downs. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
• Our roster analysis also shows that Manhattan finally ended a five-game non-cover streak (and not covering 7 of 8), but that the starting lineup they used in last game finally played together for first time, after a stretch where multiple starters missed games and the team has dealt with lots of inconsistency.
• Meanwhile, Canisius has failed to cover seven straight now, and has lost each of the last three, performing far worse than their season averages. Starter Siem Uijtendaal missed the last two games and his status is uncertain for tonight.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and matchup analysis.
• Last week, we had a similar Staff Pick on the Rams against the Lions, The primary rationale was the poor performance of teams with poor passing defense numbers and similer teams to Detroit in the playoffs. Those concerns played out, but the Lions still won as the Rams failed to convert yards to points, settled for field goals, and made suboptimal coaching decisions, while outgaining the Lions by nearly 100 yards.
• Detroit just allowed 357 passing yards and a 119.8 passer rating to Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card Round win, and that's the highest passer rating ever allowed by a team that advanced in the playoffs.
• The five other teams who allowed the highest passer rating, and won, in the Wild Card Round went 0-5 both SU and ATS in the next game, losing by an average of 26 points in the Divisional Round.
• Those pass defense numbers in the Wild Card Round were bad, but Detroit was near the bottom of the NFL in the regular season, ranking 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in TD passes allowed, and 27th in passing yards allowed in the regular season. So we will grab the points against a team with a very susceptible pass defense, when teams fitting that profile have generally failed to cover in the postseason.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Mississippi State recently got center Tolu Smith back from an offseason foot injury, and beat Tennessee mid-week in his first start of the season, which is why our power ratings would show Alabama as the favorite in this game (since most of the game results were without Smith).

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a Staff Pick based on team analysis and trends.
• The Cleveland Browns have started five (!!) different QBs this year, but have been playing better on offense with veteran Joe Flacco in his five starts. He's averaged 7.9 yards per pass (the other 4 averaged 6.4) and thrown 13 TD passes (11 combined for the others).
• Teams with a QB who didn't start all year have provided playoff value in recent years. Since 2010, when the starting QB in a playoff matchup did not start in at least 4 of that team's games in the regular season, that team is 25-14-3 ATS.
• The Texans' pass defense is a weak link, as they rank poorly in net yards per pass allowed (6.5 yards per pass), second-worst only to Detroit among playoff teams. Home teams in the Wild Card Round who have given up 6.5 net yards per pass or worse in the regular season are 3-9 SU and ATS since 2010.
• C.J. Stroud has been a part of a wonderful revival in Houston as the second overall pick, but rookie QBs have a poor track record in their first start, and he's going against the team that ranks #1 in passing yards allowed. 
• Going all the way back to 1978, teams with a 1st and 2nd round rookies making their playoff debut (so we are excluding the backups forced into starts) have gone 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in the first game, underperforming the spread by an average of 6.3 points. All five top rookies to make the playoffs since 2011 have lost and failed to cover in their first playoff start.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a recommendation based on motivation factors.
• As we noted in our pick'em article for this week, when a team with a losing record is favored over a playoff-bound team in the final regular season week, going back to 2002, and the starting QB for the playoff team doesn't play the full game, the favorites (like the Chargers) have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS. That includes Atlanta over Tampa Bay and Denver over the Chargers last year.
• It's already been announced that Patrick Mahomes is sitting and Blaine Gabbert will start for KC. 
• Other key veterans like Travis Kelce are only going to play until they hit milestones (16 yards to 1,000 for season) and this is going to be treated like a preseason game for KC, who has clinched the No. 3 seed.
• This line has already moved to -3.5 at sharper books but is still currently available at 3 at some of them.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 18.
• Some of the model factors in this one include New Orleans’ relatively poor recent rush defense, combined with Atlanta’s rushing attack (Atlanta ran for 228 yards against the Saints in the first meeting).
• The Saints also have poor rushing offense numbers, and now RB Alvin Kamara’s status is up in the air after an ankle injury.
• Saints are 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite this year.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and our top moneyline pick if you would rather play for the outright win) for Week 18.
• Since the start of 2013, teams that were shut out the week before, like Carolina, are 25-11-1 ATS the next week when they are underdogs. 
• So far this year, teams that were shut out went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the following week.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• NC A&T is a vastly better team since Jason Murphy joined the team. He missed the first nine games waiting on an eligibility ruling after transferring from D2. In the 9 games without him, they were 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS. In 5 games with him, they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning three times outright as underdogs.
• By our WOWY analysis, they are 12.6 points better in the games with him than without him.
• Murphy has impacted the team's rebounding, as he posted 10 boards in each of the last two games, and NC A&T had only one game with an offensive rebound rate of 25% or higher without him, but has done that four times in four games with him.
• Elon rates 271st in defensive rebounding, similarly in rebounding efficiency to Campbell, who NC A&T just beat by 14 as a 2.5-point dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Wagner has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5, including last 3 as favorite, as it is dealing with some injuries.
• Guard Zaire Williams has been out, and Guard Rahmir Moore has been out since the third game, and based on this tweet it sounds like both are out a while. They are 2 of the 3 returning starters from last season.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable spread pick in Week 17.
• Since 2010, double-digit home faves in Week 16 or later are 66-4 SU and 37-30-3 ATS.
• Philadelphia has failed to cover in four straight, but have had a poor turnover differential in that stretch and there is rebound potential against an inferior opponent.
• Arizona placed their top WR Marquise Brown on IR this week, and QB Kyler Murray has missed practice most of the week with illness.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick in Week 17.
• Carolina put up their season-high in points and yards last week, but came up just short in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay. The Panthers have now out-gained their opponents in three straight games, and are 3-1 ATS over the last 4 games since firing coach Frank Reich, after a 1-8-2 ATS start.
• Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a downward trend and QB Trevor Lawrence is battling through injuries. The team has lost four straight after looking like a lock to make the playoffs, including losing the last two by more than two touchdowns to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS over that span, with three of them failing to cover by more than 10 points.
• They cannot effectively run the ball (no games of 100+ rushing yards in the last five, and averaging 3.6 yards per rush for the year). The Jaguars pass defense is also a bottom 10 unit, and they rank 29th in passing yards allowed.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our highest-rated model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This line has already moved, shifting the favorite from Toledo to Wyoming.
• Toledo's starting QB and one of the top players in the MAC, Dequan Finn, has entered the transfer portal.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• We also like that Wyoming has a geographic advantage in a Western venue game, going against a team that will be playing with a different QB.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This is another game that has seen early line movement in San Jose State's favor, and we want to jump on this number while it is below the -10 key number.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• These are two teams going in opposite directions. Coastal Carolina closed the last 5 games without QB Grayson McCall, who is now back in the transfer portal and visiting major programs. They lost the finale by over 40 to James Madison. San Jose State is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch after a slow start.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• Georgia State has opened as the favorite but this line has moved in Utah State's favor and we like getting it below the 3 key number.
• Georgia State has lost five straight, going 1-4 ATS, with all the non-covers by double digits.
• Utah State has a significant climate/geographic advantage in this game, as it is played in an extreme cold weather venue in the mountains, and Georgia State will be the first Sun Belt team to play in the bowl (recently, it has been a MAC vs. MWC matchup).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the Famous Toastery Bowl.
• This line has moved from Western Kentucky being favored at opening to Old Dominion being favored, but you can still get it below a field goal.
• The reason for the line move is transfer portal news. Both teams have several players who have entered the portal, but Western Kentucky's losses appear more costly, as over half of their starting offensive line is out, and several secondary defenders, including star defensive back Upton Stout, who has several offers and has visited Michigan already
• We will play on the line move and against the quantity and quality of transfer losses for Western Kentucky.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread (and moneyline) pick for Week 15.
• For the second week in a row, playing against Baltimore as favorite, due to some extreme pass yards per completion and recent poor rush defense numbers, is showing up as a top model spread pick.
• If you can get the line above a field goal, we prefer the spread to the moneyline play.
• Jacksonville is coming off two straight poor defensive performances, losing close shootouts with Cleveland and Cincinnati.
• The weather for this game could provide an impact, though the game is later in the day. A severe storm has moved through Florida and the SE United States, and there are heavy rains and strong winds in the aftermath.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model spread pick for Week 15.
• Washington has been poor in the favorite’s role (1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS) while being a solid underdog play (5-3-1 ATS) for most of the year.
• One reason that Washington has generally been better in the underdog role than as a favorite is likely because their defense ranks poorly (thus keeping even subpar offenses in the game against them), but their passing offense can be high variance with first-year starter Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in pass attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread (and moneyline at +215) pick for Week 15.
• The Giants have won three straight as underdogs with rookie Tommy DeVito taking over and becoming a national story.
• The Saints scored 28 points last week, but did so while only gaining just over 200 yards of offense against Carolina, as QB Derek Carr continues to play in the aftermath of several injuries and having two concussions in a month.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This line has already shifted from Ohio opening as a slight favorite to Georgia Southern being favored.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• We get these big line moves often now because of news on who is transferring before the bowl game, or is opting out.
• In this case, we will quote directly from the Action Network Transfer tracker: "Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones to an injury earlier this season. As a result, the Bobcats could be down their starting quarterback, top two backs and starting quarterback. With backup CJ Harris, who led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, also out for the year, the Bobs would turn to Parker Navarro, who would be the team's leading rusher (107) and passer (65) left on the roster."
• We also like Georgia Southern having a major travel advantage, only 250 miles from the game site, against a team that looks like it will be without every key offensive player from the season due to transfer portal.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our top-rated playable spread pick for Week 13.
• Some books have this game now at +3 at increased juice, but see if you can get the +3 key number at -120 or better on juice. At below the +3, the moneyline is a higher-rated play.
• We have a rare opportunity to grab a 10-1 team as a home underdog in this game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick in the Pac-12 title game.
• Washington is undefeated, and gave Oregon their only loss of the year in a 3-point game in Seattle.
• Washington got off to a great start, but over the last eight games, is only 2-6 ATS and has won six of those games by a single score, and none by more than 10 points.
• Oregon, since the loss at Washington, has gone 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, winning by an average of 26 points, and not having a single game decided by one score.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable spread pick in the Ensemble Forecast model for Week 12.
• The Chargers fell to 4-6, with another close loss, and five of the losses have been by a field goal or less, so we like getting the hook at +3.5 at home in this game.
• Baltimore's defense has been dominant, but less so in recent weeks, from their early season numbers.
• Baltimore will be playing the first game without star TE Mark Andrews, and in the only other game without him this year, the team put up 265 total yards against Houston in Week 1, lowest of the season.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 13 in CFB.
• Tennessee is coming off two straight losses to Missouri and Georgia, but is 4-1 ATS when favored by double digits this year, and 9-2 ATS over the last two years as a double-digit favorite.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick and also rated as one of the highest Similar Games model plays.
• Iowa State started the season 2-3 in the aftermath of the betting scandal that resulted in numerous player suspensions, but they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS over the last five weeks and have outperformed the spread by an average of +13.4 points.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 10.
• The Steelers have been out-gained in all eight games so far this year, and by 790 yards for the season. They are 5-3 despite being outscored for the year, as they are 5-0 in one-score games.
• The turnover margin is at an extreme end for a team that isn't good on offense or making teams play from far behind, as Pittsburgh ranks 1st in our adjusted turnover margin (+8 in turnovers, +2 in turnovers on downs, and +2 in missed field goals).
• The Packers have had offensive skill injuries that have kept their full unit from playing together most of year, but just put up their highest total yardage game in last week's win, coinciding with RB Aaron Jones being healthy enough to have more than 10 carries in a game (he finished with 20) for the first time all year.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable spread picks for Week 11 in CFB.
• New Mexico rates near the bottom of FBS in yards per point allowed, but that was at an extreme last week in a 56-14 loss to UNLV, where yards for the two teams were close to even, and New Mexico dominated time of possession, but they gave up so many points (on 416 yards) because of special teams miscues (fumble by punter, big punt return) and turnover yards (long fumble return when in UNLV territory). 
• Our model is picking up a lot of regression factors with this big line and New Mexico's points allowed relative to yards allowed.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but is a pick based on "fading the predictive ratings model" and injury news.
• Our predictive rating model would give UNC only a 25% chance of covering based on the full season power ratings of the two teams, but that's because the line is reflecting Duke QB Riley Leonard being out.
• The projected starting QB for Duke, freshman Grayson Loftis, has completed only 42% of his passes this year for 4.8 yards per attempt. Duke managed to win on a last-second FG, but not cover, against Wake Forest with Loftis starting last week, despite being outgained 400 to 267.
• Over the last two weeks, predictive ratings model games rated 33% or lower are 11-4 ATS, and these are often again games where the line is notably off, usually due to injury info.
• Last year, from Week 11 in CFB and later, fading the biggest predictive rating differences went 15-6 ATS, again usually because of injury or player participation news (in bowl games).
• So we will take UNC here because of the significant QB advantage in this rivalry game, with Duke's starter out and a freshman who has struggled getting the start.

Staff notes:

• This is both a spread analytical model play, and a predictive ratings play.
• Bradley upset UAB in their first game, but UAB shot only 62% from the free throw line, and 16% from the three point line, so the Braves may be slightly overvalued.

Staff notes:

• Our preseason ratings show Florida a7M as a good value in this game, and have historically done well when showing value in both teams' first game of the season when the market may be a touch softer.
• The line opened at -29, and is back to -35.5 at some books, so we're getting this at close to the best price that has been available.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick by our Ensemble Forecast Model, but is a play in a "fade predictive ratings" angle, and injury news.
• So far this year, when our predictive ratings rate a team as having under 40% cover odds, they are 14-7-1 ATS. This is driven by lines that are off expectations, often because of injuries.
• Minnesota is playing in their first game without Kirk Cousins at QB since he missed a December start against Green Bay in 2021 (that they lost 37-10), and Cousins has started nearly every game recently, starting 88 of the last 90 games for the franchise.
• The Vikings are starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB, and traded for Josh Dobbs mid-week.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Monday Night Football.
• The Raiders are -10 in turnovers, worst in the NFL, and regression related to turnovers are part of the model factors.
• The Raiders have really struggled in two losses started by backup QBs, and Jimmy Garoppolo is back this week (3-2 ATS in games he starts). 
• The Lions will still be without RB David Montgomery, who gives the offense a different power run element that they lack otherwise, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was downgraded to questionable yesterday due to illness, and even if he plays, may not be at 100%.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 8.
• The Tennessee Titans will be without QB Ryan Tannehill and reportedly playing both rookie QB Will Levis and second-year QB Malik Willis (with Levis expected to start).
• Atlanta has been a really good defensive team this year, ranking third in total yards allowed, and now getting a team with an unsettled QB situation.
• Tennessee just traded away team leader and safety Kevin Byard, and are rumored to be in "sell" mode, and we could also be getting a motivation advantage for a team where some other veterans know they could be traded before next week's deadline.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread pick for Week 8.
• One of the major model factors is relative fumble recovery luck this year, as Patriots opponents have recovered 71% of fumbles in their games, while the Dolphins have recovered 68% of the fumbles in theirs.
• Miami is dealing with several injury issues and changes in recent weeks, and isn't quite as explosive without RB De'Von Achane, while the Patriots are coming off their best offensive game of the year in the upset of Buffalo.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model and is rated at above 60% in our Similar Games Model.
• So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
• Kentucky has lost two straight to Georgia and Missouri, and dealt with a lot of injuries over that stretch, but is coming off a bye week to rebound and get some of those players back this week.
• Kentucky has been a good home underdog team in recent years in SEC play, going 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS at home as a dog in the last five years under Mark Stoops.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, and is also our highest-rated Decision Tree model pick, and rated at over 60% in our Similar Games model.
• So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
• Michigan State is 127th in yards per point margin, meaning they have scored far fewer points than expected + allowed more than expected based on yards allowed.
• Some of the model factors in this game are Michigan State's poor turnover margin, Minnesota's low yards per pass on offense, and Minnesota's high fourth down conversion rate, and time of possession, and pace of play.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 7, and our highest-rated at the moment.
• Seattle has over-performed relative to its yardage gained so far this season, as the Seahawks rank in the middle of the NFL in yards, but rank 5th in yards per point (while Arizona is 27th).
• Arizona has played competitively this season, but has been plagued by second-half collapses. They’ve had a halftime lead in four of their six games so far, but have been outscored 98-30 after halftime. That includes getting outscored 20-0 after the break last week against the Rams, in a game where the yardage totals were pretty even for both teams.
• Add in that Seattle has struggled as a bigger favorite in recent years (since 2017, the Seahawks are 5-13 ATS and only 10-8 SU when favored by 5 points or more at home), and we’ll take the points in this divisional matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also playable at over 60% in our Similar Games model. Similar Games picks rated at 60% or higher are 41-24-2 ATS so far this year, and such games on underdogs are 93-76 (55%) ATS over the last three seasons.
• Both these teams are among the worst in the MAC, but we'll take Kent State and the points given the poor numbers for Buffalo's offense, and the discrepancy in these two in points per yard gained so far.
• Buffalo's only win by more than a single score this year came in a game where they had a +4 turnover margin.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also playable at over 60% in our Similar Games model. Similar Games picks rated at 60% or higher are 41-24-2 ATS so far this year, and such games on underdogs are 93-76 (55%) ATS over the last three seasons.
• Marshall has lost two straight games after four wins to start the year, while James Madison is off to a 6-0 start and receiving national attention and outcry because they aren't bowl-eligible after recently moving to FBS, and we'll play against the team getting national attention, on the road, on a short week.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our top-rated spread pick for Week 6 in the NFL.
• Some model factors include the Rams' low yards per carry and the Cardinals' high rushing yards and yards per carry so far, as well as the Rams' mediocre rush defense numbers.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated playable spread pick for Week 6.
• New England was shut out last week at home in embarrassing fashion, 34-0 to New Orleans. QB Mac Jones’ job is potentially in jeopardy. New England has put up two of its worst-ever performances with Bill Belichick as head coach.
• Since the start of the 2013 season (last decade), teams that were shut out the week before and were an underdog the following week have gone 23-10-1 ATS over that span.
• The Patriots are dead last in our adjusted turnover look at not only turnovers but turnovers on downs and missed field goals. They are near the bottom in turnovers, and have also converted only two-of-10 fourth downs and made only four of their eight field goal attempts.
• This pick is getting points against Belichick's former assistant Josh McDaniels, who has arguably been the worst in-game strategic endgame coach this year, making several sub-optimal late decisions.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread pick for Week 7 in CFB.
• Since 2021, picks rated above 55.0% cover odds have gone 58-44 (56.9%). This game is rated at 57.5% to cover the 19.5-point line.
• Alabama has covered three straight in SEC play after a slow start with the loss to Texas and poor performance against South Florida.
• Arkansas has lost four straight, and is last in the SEC in total yards per game on offense, and near the bottom of all FBS in offensive sack rate.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated spread pick for Week 5.
• Also playable at the common +9.5 -110 avaiable at most books.
• Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown missed practice on Wednesday with an abdominal injury and would be a notable omission if he is out, as the Lions' best receiving threat.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 6 in CFB.
• Georgia Tech's defense struggled in their last game, where they allowed 38 straight points to Bowling Green (after getting off to a 14-point lead early) in an upset home loss.
• Miami rates near the top of CFB, 12th nationally in completion percentage so far (72.5%). 
• The Hurricanes also rate 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (216) while Georgia Tech is 129th in rushing yards allowed per game (231) and allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also has a 59.7% cover rate based on our Similar Games Model. (So far this year, Similar Games rated 60% are 29-17-2 ATS, and over the last three seasons, underdogs rated 60%+ are 85-69 ATS.)
• LSU's offense has been explosive, but their defense has been far from vintage, ranking among the worst in FBS in several categories. LSU is 114th in points allowed per game, 116th in yards allowed, and 117th in yards per pass allowed.
• 5-0 Missouri is 4th nationally in yards per pass attempt (10.7) and Luther Burden leads the nation in receiving yards.
• Based only on this year's results, Missouri would be the higher-rated team, and the spread reflects the preseason priors, where LSU was No. 5 entering the year, but has dropped to No. 17 based on those defensive struggles. 
• This is also a playable Moneyline pick if you would rather play the outright win at +odds.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
• These two teams actually have a very similar yardage differential profile, moreso than their point differential results and records would suggest, as Seattle has the third best adjusted turnover differential thanks to opponent 4th down fails, missed field goals, and turnovers, while the Giants haven't forced a turnover yet (and had things like a blocked FG returned for TD). 
• Seattle also ranks highly in our yards per point measure while the Giants are near the bottom of the league, another stat that tends to regress. 
• Seattle is also likely to be a very popular pick, as our early pool data shows over 70% of the public picking the Seahawks outright to win even though they are the underdog.
• New York has struggled on offense against the 49ers and Cowboys, while racking up 26 first downs against the Cardinals. The Seahawks are 29th in yards and points allowed, and 30th in first downs allowed after three games.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model NFL pick for Week 4.
• Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been ruled out (concussion) and rookie Aidan O'Connell is expected to start.
• Garoppolo had six interceptions in his first three games, and the Raiders are a league-worst -7 in turnover margin, a regression category that is a factor in our models. 
• Las Vegas is also dead-last in rushing yards, coming after Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, had an extended hold out that resolved right before the season, but they draw a Chargers team that is 31st in total yards allowed, and was dead last in rush yards per carry last year.
• While Garoppolo's absence may get the most attention, the Chargers have several key players out, as starting center Corey Linsley has an unspecified illness and was just placed on IR with a "non-emergent heart condition", defensive end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James are both unlikely to play, and WR MIke Williams suffered a torn ACL last week. RB Austin Ekeler is also not expected to return this week.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Week 4.
• New England has allowed 811 total yards, very similar to Dallas' 786, even though the Patriots have played the Eagles and Dolphins' offenses, while the Cowboys have played the Giants and Cardinals (both played the Jets). 
• The difference is in turnovers and other high leverage plays that are less predictive, as Dallas is 1st in our adjusted net turnovers, while New England is near the bottom. 
• Dallas also lost CB Trevon Diggs for the season and struggled in allowing some big plays to the Cardinals in the Week 3 loss.
• Other model factors include the Patriots defensive efficiency at stopping both the run and pass in recent games, as well as fumble recovery rates.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick based on our Similar Games model and Decision Tree model.
• So far this year, Similar Games model picks rated 60% or higher are 28-15-2 ATS. Games rated 60% or higher in Similar Games and playable in the Decision Tree model are 9-3 ATS so far.
• Over the last three years, Similar Games rated 60% or higher with picks on underdogs are 84-68 ATS.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
• Early line movement has already pushed this line over the last two days, but we think there is still value if you can jump in while it is below the key "field goal" number.
• Pittsburgh won on Monday Night, but it wasn't pretty and they benefited from two defensive scores. The offense ran zero plays inside the Cleveland 30-yard line.
• Pittsburgh is still without their top possession receiver Diontae Johnson (who went on IR before Week 2) and the other starting WR George Pickens was limited in practice due to a hamstring injury. Given that this offense is already 31st in total yards after two weeks, any impacts to the starters provides value against them.

Staff notes:

• This is our second highest--rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
• Seattle is also very popular in our spread pool data at over 70% of the picks on Seattle in ATS pools and over 96% picking Seattle to win the game outright.
• The line however is moving against Seattle, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.
• Carolina is starting veteran Andy Dalton over first overall pick Bryce Young, but Dalton may be better able to exploit a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in yards and yards allowed per pass so far this year.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
• Miami is also very popular in our spread pool data, and is the most popular spread pick on BetMGM.
• The line however is moving against Miami, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our higher-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CFB.
• We are adding it as a staff pick because of the injury situation with Louisiana Tech, where starting QB Hank Bachmeier, who transferred in from Boise State, sufferred a shoulder injury and is expected to miss. La Tech's leading rusher, freshman Keith Willis, Jr., also left the last game with an injury.
• Nebraska also has a decision at QB, as coach Matt Rhule will decide between Heinrich Haarberg, who played in last week's game as Nebraska had over 500 yards of offense, or the struggling Jeff Sims, who missed the last game with injury but has returned to practice. Haarberg is expected to start.
• Model factors for this game include Louisiana Tech's extremely bad opponent rushing yards per carry against in the last 7 games, La Tech's low rate of picking up first downs by rushing, and Nebraska's poor fumble recovery luck, which should regress.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model plays for Week 2 in the NFL.
• The line in this one immediately jumped 5-6 points from the look-ahead line on Monday, after the Aaron Rodgers injury.
• This Jets team, though, is a strong defensive unit and one with playmaking skill players on offense (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall) and this number jump may be too big a reaction (remember, just a year ago, it was Dallas in Week 2 who became a big underdog against Cincinnati because Dak Prescott was hurt and Cooper Rush was going to start).
• Dallas also won 40-0 last week, but had only 265 yards of offense, and easily rank 1st in our yards per point measure, something that can be an indicator of regression.
• There have been only five times in the last 15 years that a Week 1 team won and scored 30+ while having fewer than 300 yards, and they went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS the next week. 

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model spread pick, but we are recommending this because we think you can grab some line value based on Ravens' injuries.
• Cincinnati is coming off a dreadful offensive performance, which can at least be partially excused because Joe Burrow got no practice time in the preseason with the calf injury, and the Browns have traditionally played him tough before last week. So you can get some Bengals' bounceback potential while they are relatively unpopular (the Bengals are the least popular of the 16 betting favorites in our pool data).
• Baltimore has so many key injuries coming out of Week 1. They lost RB J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury. LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum both sustained injuries and their status is in doubt (Linderbaum got rolled up late on this play.) S Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury. And today, CB Marlon Humphrey didn't practice because of a foot injury. So we think it's more likely that this line moves against Baltimore as injury absences become official.

Staff notes:

• This is one of top playable spread picks for Week 2 in the NFL.
• Our models are picking up several regression factors that could provide value on the underdog in this matchup.
• Tampa Bay won in an upset at Minnesota in Week 1, but were outgained by 127 yards, and benefited from a +3 turnover margin.
• Chicago was the opposite, losing as a slight favorite to Green Bay, as the yards in the 38-20 loss were pretty even. Green Bay only had 15 first downs but had some big plays and a pick-six, and the Bears were -2 in turnovers.
• While Baker Mayfield is getting some praise for the road upset, he still only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt in his Bucs debut. The Bucs also had only 73 rush yards on 33 attempts, so the offense wasn't very efficient but just bunched its key plays together.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model underdog spread pick for Week 1.
• Over the last two NFL seasons, playable model underdog picks are 70-47-3 ATS (59.6%)
• Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl season, and our models are a little lower than the market on the Eagles to start the year, based on some regression factors (extremely easy opponent schedule last year, injuries, rush-heavy team).
• New England is coming off a year where they literally had a defensive coach (Matt Patricia) serving as offensive coordinator, and they have replaced him with an actual competent offensive coordinator in former Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, and that should provide value on the Patriots' offense relative to last year. 
• New England is in a home underdog role, where they are 11-11 SU and 14-8 ATS under Bill Belichick.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 1.
• There are also several trends that favor Houston in this matchup.
• Since 2003, there have been only 31 games where the Week 1 spread was 9 points or higher. Favorites are 26-5 SU but only 9-22 ATS in those games.
• We have a database of coach and QB factors, and since 2003, there have been only 39 Week 1 games where a team was an underdog of 4.5 points while playing its first game with a new head coach. The underdog with the new head coach is 24-15 ATS over that span. 
• There have been only 15 games where the underdog of 4.5 points or more was starting a rookie QB in Week 1 in the last 20 years. The team starting the rookie QB is 5-10 SU but 10-5 ATS.
• Houston is now coached by former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, and just named rookie QB C.J. Stroud as the Week 1 starter.
• We have admittedly small sample sizes in these real-life cases of rookie QBs and coaches, but there is reason to believe that the market probably does overvalue certainty and teams/coaches/QBs it has seen before, and there is value on the new coaches and young QBs in their debut, when getting a lot of points. 
• This line is at +9.5 to +10 at various books, so we would recommend grabbing the +10 if you can. It's fine to play at +9.5 but you should shop and wait to see if you can get the key 10 number if possible.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread pick for Week 2 in CFB.
• Florida State is coming off a 45-24 win as a dog against LSU on Sunday.
• The yardage in that game was fairly even, with the difference being FSU going 4-for-4 in the red zone, coverting 64% of third downs, while LSU missed two red zone opps, was 0-3 on 4th down, and converted 30% of third downs.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 2, up to -2.5 if the line moves (it's already at -2 in some places).
• This line opened with UTEP as the underdog, but has quickly shifted this week.
• Northwestern is still dealing with the fallout of firing head coach Pat Fitzgerald, and lost their opener to Rutgers by 17 points.
• We'll play on value on Northwestern being a bad football team dealing with a lot of turnover and changes.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Week 1.
• Oklahoma was one of our larger market adjustments, as the market seems more optimistic about big improvement from the Sooners in year 2 under Brent Venables, after the program had its worst season in over 20 years last year in his debut replacing Lincoln Riley.
• Even with that big market adjustment, we show value on this line, which we would have at closer to 30 based on the power ratings of the two teams. It's not that we think Arkansas State is very good (No. 115 of 133 teams in our preseason ratings), but that Oklahoma is just laying too many points.
• The Sooners should be able to run the ball and also play backups, as they have a matchup with SMU next week, and we'll take the points here in a game that could be shortened in total plays by Oklahoma leading comfortably while still covering, with the new timing rules. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Friday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Monday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Wednesday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our Decision Tree Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Decision Tree Model run line picks have been among our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, and a pick based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
• Princeton is coming off two straight impressive performances against Arizona and Missouri, where they beat Arizona despite going only 4-of-25 from three, by playing Arizona even on the glass, then dominated Missouri in rebounding while avoiding turnovers.
• Princeton has shortened their rotation substantially in recent games against tougher competition, and is better when their best players play more.
• In the 10 most similar games this year to the minutes distribution from the Missouri 2nd Round game, Princeton has an average rating of +8.4 (compared to +4.6 across all games), and we think there's value on this Princeton team and a starting group that is better than the overall season numbers.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
• Houston coach Kelvin Sampson also disclosed that not only was Marcus Sasser battling the injury (and re-injured it) but that point guard Jamal Shead was playing through a sore knee.
• Matchup factors also favor Auburn, as Houston has struggled relatively against teams with Auburn's strengths.
• Houston is 4-11 ATS against top 100 Offensive Rebouding Teams (14-6 against others) and Auburn is 51st in that category.
• Houston is 0-8 ATS against top 50 eFG% Defense Teams, and Auburn is 12th in that category.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a spread pick based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
• As we noted in our team notes in our bracket picks product, Indiana's power rating has been worse on average since they lost Xavier Johnson in December, and they do not rate highly in our power ratings (and are over-seeded) even before accounting for that adjustment.
• Indiana was 1-5 ATS against teams who are in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate. So while their overall turnover rate numbers aren't bad, they haven't played too many high-turnover defenses, and have struggled when they do. Kent State is 20th in turnover rate on defense, the best in that category that Indiana has faced all year.
• Kent State has played better against top teams, losing narrowly to Houston and Gonzaga. They have done well (9-3-1 ATS against top 100 teams in offensive turnover rate) against teams not accustomed to committing turnovers.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean on Drake according to our Ensemble Forecast.
• We also like this play based on our WOWY analysis, in regard to Drake's performance with the current lineup and recent dominant form, as well as potential injury impact concern for Miami.
• Miami's Norchad Omier injured his ankle early in the loss to Duke, and his status for the opening game is unknown. Miami is a heavily guard-oriented team with defensive deficiencies, and Omier, at 6'7", is their biggest starter and him being limited or out would impact them.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in the NCAA Tournament.
• Both teams have played well lately, but one model factor impacting this is Penn State's opponents scoring very few points from beyond the arc recently, as their opponents have made only 25% from three-point range in the last six games.
• Other model factors including Penn State scoring a low percentage of their points from two both all season and recently, Texas A&M's ability to draw fouls for the season and in recent games, and Texas A&M's low number of defensive rebounds recently compared to Penn State's low offensive rebound stats.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean for our Ensemble Forecast model.
• It's also a recommended play based on our WOWY analysis, for a lot of the same reasons we successfully played Howard as a conference title future last week.
• Howard used a lot of different player combos early, but they have played substantially better with the current lineup, since guard Marcus Dockery (46% from three) and freshman Shy Odom (best rim attacker on the team) became starters.
• This line is directly on where we would predict it to be based on full season ratings, but we have strong reason to believe Howard's play and ratings changes over last half of season are real and based on different player combos and a more efficient offensive rotation being used.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• We also see some value based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and tourney team similarities.
• From our team notes with our bracket picks product: "Mississippi State is dead last in all of D1 at three-point shooting, at 26.6%, and is in the tournament because of their defense. Counterintuitively, teams with Mississippi State's profile have tended to overperform slightly in the tournament. That's probably because their defense remains consistent, while positive shooting variance benefits more than negative shooting variance harms them, since they weren't really expecting to shoot well anyway."
• Add in that Mississippi State has tended to struggle more against top defenses, and Pitt being ranked way down at 142nd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and we see value here.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
• Jackson State has also been playing better with the current lineup, particularly since Trace Young was lost for the season, and Chase Adams moved back in to the starting lineup.
• Jackson State's defensive numbers have been really good over the last five, and they've held three of the last four to under 44% from two-point range.

Staff notes:

• This is a model spread pick for Friday.
• In addition, UCLA is playing without Jaylen Clark, their best defender, who is now out for the season, and missed the quarterfinal in a game that was closer than the final score, as it was tight until the final minutes.
• Oregon is better than their full-season rating, as Jermaine Cousinard missed the first half of the season, and since he moved into the starting lineup they have a +14.0 power rating, compared to +11.4 overall.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on WOWY analysis and team trends.
• Rutgers has struggled over its last eight games, since Mawot Mag suffered a season ending injury. They have gone 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS, and their average power rating over that span is +4.5, compared to +16.9 in their first 23 games.
• Michigan has been better over its last 10 games, by about 6.5 points compared to its season average.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our lineup WOWY (With or Without You) analysis.
• This spread is close to the full season spread between the two using average power ratings, but after adjustments we see about two points of value on Georgia Tech.
• Georgia Tech had a rough January stretch, and it included nine straight conference losses. But shooting guard Lance Terry was hurt and then missed five games, including the Louisville loss.
• Since Terry has returned and since the team has gotten healthier, the Yellow Jackets have gone 7-3 SU, and are 8-1 ATS, with the only non-cover coming in the ACC tourney opener against FSU by a point.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and player news.
• Chattanooga's star 7-foot center (and likely Conference Player of the Year before injury) Jake Stephens missed the last 11 games of the regular season with a hand injury, but has returned for the Southern Conference tournament.
• Chattanooga has a +3.5 average power rating with Stephens and -4.9 without him, for a 8.5-point swing in average performance.
• Since returning, Stephens has scored 67 points in three tournament wins.
• Furman has won 5 of the last 6, but covered only 2 of them with some close wins in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday in CBB.
• Model factors include East Tennessee State's high percentage of points coming from two and Western Carolina's high percentage of points for opponents from two in recent games.
• East Tennessee State has also been better since the start of December, after some early missed games for starters. 

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends.
• Morehead State has played better after a slow start when they utilized several different lineups. With the current lineup they are about 2 points better than the season average, and Morehead has won 11 of their last 12 games after a 10-9 start, with that current lineup.
• SE Missouri's average performance has been about two points worse since mid-January, when wing Kobe Clark suffered an injury, and has missed the rest of the season.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• Some model factors include UTEP's high steal rate and low opponent effective possession rate in recent games, and UTEP's low three-point rate in recent games.
• Western Kentucky's Luke Frampton suffered a season-ending knee injury nine games ago, and the team has been a little worse since then. He still leads the team in made three-pointers despite being out, and is the most accurate outside shooter.
• UTEP is also a little better than their overall rating due to an earlier stretch with injuries and lineup shuffling where they played worse.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
• Providence got off to a slow start with three new transfer starters, but has been better since November, and their overall season power rating undervalues their current form. They are 16-5 ATS since the start of December.
• Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle. They've largely been fine without him so far, but he is their best defensive rebounder, and Providence is the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the Big East, and top 20 nationally in that category, so his absence could be more impactful in this matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
• TCU's power rating is significantly higher in games where Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller are all in the lineup.
• Texas had a higher power rating, by about 6.5 points, in the 8 games with Chris Beard as head coach before he was suspended and then terminated, than since.
• As a result, we have TCU power rated ahead of Texas, before HCA adjustments, after accounting for current lineup and coaching.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• After a 13-0 non-conference start, New Mexico has faltered in Mountain West play, dropping 6 of 8.
• Fresno State has underperformed this year, but have had a lot of injuries and lineup shifts, and have been about 6.5 points better when the current starting lineup are all healthy.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
• Rutgers has lost 4 of the last 5 games, since starting forward Mawot Mag suffered a season-ending knee injury.
• They have had three of their worst offensive performances in that span, and also had easily their worst defensive game of the year, allowing Nebraska to shoot 74% from two-point range in a loss to the Huskers where they allowed 82 points.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model spread pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injury news.
• Ohio State has performed worse than their season-long power rating for nine straight games, and have lost nine straight games in the Big Ten, and 13 of 14.
• Ohio State is bad defensively across the board, and just lost center Zed Key to injury. That leaves them really undersized on the front line, going against an Illinois team that will have a significant front court advantage.
• Six straight Ohio State opponents have had an effective field goal percentage over 50%, with five of those over 56.0%.
• Illinois has performed relatively better playing against teams that shoot a lower volume of threes (like Ohio State) going 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS against those outside the top 200 in three-point attempt rate, and 3-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS against higher volume outside shooting teams.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Thursday.
• Texas-San Antonio went through a six-game stretch in mid-January where point guard Japhet Medor and center Jacob Germany missed games, and they went 1-5 ATS, but have their full lineup now.
• Florida Atlantic got off to a blistering 15-3-1 ATS start, but are 1-5 ATS over the last six games, and just lost on the road at Middle Tennessee.
• Florida Atlantic's slide has happened despite high offensive efficiency, as the defensive numbers are down in recent weeks, both in terms of defensive rebounding and opponent interior shooting.

Staff notes:

• This game is right on the edge of playable (52.4%) according to our models but is also a play based on team trends and player news.
• William & Mary has been without starters Noah Collier and Gabe Dorsey for the last four games. So far this year they are about 3.5 points worse in games Collier misses, and that includes the one good performance where they beat Towson by 2 by shooting over 50% from three-point range.
• The five other games without Collier have all been below-average performances compared to the season power rating.
• Elon, meanwhile, has been about 4 points better in games played by Jerald Gillens-Butler, who missed the first month and a half of the season.

Staff notes:

• This is close to a playable model pick (52.2%) but is a play based on team trends.
• Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury eight games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -16.3, compared to -1.7 before.
• Howard is on a nine-game win streak and has moved to first in the MEAC.
• Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Howard has a signficiant size and rebounding advantage.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on team trends and player participation.
• Valparaiso has been about 5.5 points better over the last 16 games compared to their first 12 games of the season.
• Illinois-Chicago has been without their two leading scorers, Tre Anderson and Jace Carter, for the last two games for undisclosed reasons and has failed to cover both.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Vermont got off to a rough start, but has been 10 points better since December 1st compared to their November results, and have gone 13-4 ATS since.
• NJIT's Miles Coleman is also out, and NJIT has been about 5 points worse in the nine games without him as a starter this year.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• It is also a play based on team trends and performance.
• Monmouth started 1-20 but has won 5 of the last 6 games, and are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with current lineup with Jakari Spence as starting point guard.
• Monmouth entered the year as one of the least experienced teams in D1 and got off to that horrifiic start, and there is reason to think their recent improvement is real based on a young, inexperienced team with new players figuring out the best rotations.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday.
• It is also a play based on recent team trends and peformance.
• After a 4-8 ATS start, this Furman team has been rolling through the Southern Conference, covering 11 of their last 12 games, and winning five straight by double digits.
• Furman leads the Southern Conference in two-point shooting percentage on offense, and Citadel is next-to-last in defense on two-point shots.
• Furman also plays at the fastest pace in the conference, which gives them more possessions to expand the lead in mismatches. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
• Ole Miss has been strong on the offensive glass in recent games, a potential vulnerability for Florida that can keep the underdog close.
• Florida also has a low percentage of their points coming from three in recent games, and hasn't shot it well or at high frequency.
• Mississippi also has some value because they are better with Matthew Murrell back, after he missed three games with injury that were all well below the team average in terms of power rating.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Oklahoma State is playing without point guard Anthony Anderson, who underwent wrist surgery and has missed the last two games. While they have won the last two (against TCU and Texas Tech teams that had their own injury issues) the matchup with Iowa State is a tough one without Anderson.
• Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in turnovers forced, and Anderson led the Cowboys in assists to turnovers.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model play but is a pick based on team trends.
• Creighton has been dominant in the last month. This team entered with high preseason expectations, but went through a tough December stretch that included center Ryan Kalkbrenner missing three games with illness.
• Since Kalkbrenner's return, they've averaged a +20.9 Game Score over the last 12 games, which is national title contender quality, compared to +12.6 before.
• The primary improvements for Creighton have been defensively, where they are limiting opponents on the boards much better, and where opponents have shot only 43% from two-point range over the last 12. (For perspective, that would rank 6th nationally if that was their rate all year).
• Connecticut, meanwhile, started the year 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS. Since then, they are 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS.
• The primary differences in UConn now are also defensively, in that they are not turning opponents  over as much and are performing worse on defensive rebounding and interior shooting percentage.
• UConn relies on getting on the offensive glass, where they rank 5th nationally, but Creighton has been really strong there.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Saturday.
• Charleston has rebounded from their first two conference losses by covering the last two games by a combined 32.5 points.
• Charleston has a clear advantage in this game against Hampton's poor defense, and has a decided advantage in rebounding on both the offensive and defensive ends.
• Hampton ranks dead last in CAA play in opponent effective shooting percentage, and two-point shooting on offense, and Charleston is one of the best in the nation at limiting three-point shots.
• These are also two of the faster-paced teams in conference play, which should increase possessions for Charleston to score more and cover the larger number.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• LIU is now dead last among all Division 1 schools in our predictive power ratings, and are 1-20 SU against D-1 schools this season. They are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 and 2-12-1 in last 15.
• Some of the model factors are LIU having a high rate of steals against them both recently and for season, FDU's steal rate in recent games, FDU's good interior and overall shooting in recent games, and LIU's poor overall rating.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
• Maryland went through a rough stretch in late December, with a blowout loss to UCLA and some short-term injuries to starters Donald Carey and Julian Reese, but have returned to top form recently.
• Maryland has covered six straight and won the last four games all by double digits.
• Some of the model factors being picked up are Maryland's defensive efficiency numbers in the most recent seven games, as well as Michigan State's opponents shooting relatively poorly from outside, even while they have only covered two of their last seven.
• Michigan State has also struggled scoring on the inside, only topping 50% on two-point attempts once in the last seven games.