Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a play based on our lineup analysis.
• Belmont has been playing at a substantially higher level over the last 9 games (they were also a successful staff pick last Sunday, and are 8-1 ATS after yesterday's game, covering over half by double digits).
• That change corresponds with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie returning from a month-long injury to start conference play, and joining a new starting lineup rotation, that has only been in use for these four games.
• Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been stellar during this run, and we are willing to bet on the chemistry and improvement of this current lineup not being reflected fully in the line. Belmont is averaging a Game Score of +11.5 (at-large tournament quality) in the last 9 games versus -1.1 for the previous 23 with different lineups and with Gillespie's injury.
• We list this as a moneyline play here, but it is playable at the more common -1 (-110) spread available at other books.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The -130 line is slightly better than our consensus from global books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -138.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated spread and moneyline pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Our top-rated moneyline picks are +16.1 units (45 games) so far this season.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a highly-rated moneyline play for Saturday.
• Over the last three seasons, our highest-rated moneyline plays have gone 73-58 SU for +27.8 units. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable moneyline pick for bowls currently.
• Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but the program will start true freshman Jackson Arnold, a 5-star recruit who was National Gatorade Player of the Year. Arnold has played a limited number of snaps but has completed 75% of his passes and been as efficient as Gabriel.
• Our predictive rating model would have Oklahoma as a large favorite (12.5 points) in this one, so the line is discounted quite a bit for transfer news, but we see value on taking Oklahoma with their quarterback of the future making his first start.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model play at +110, and the line available at some US books is better for value right now, including DraftKings at +130.
• This moneyline opened at +150 when bowls were announced but has been steadily moving downward at key books.
• Kansas State QB Will Howard entered the transfer portal, and offensive coordinator Colin Klein took a job at Texas A&M, potentially impacting the Kansas State offense. 

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.
• We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games in our Upset Picks articles (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears’ defense has been playing much better and has held three of the last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.
• After an 0-3 SU and ATS start where they lost each game by double digits, Chicago is 6-2-2 against the number, and have covered 4 straight as a dog, and three straight since Justin Fields returned from injury.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 12.
• Houston is a slight home underdog in a game where they have a chance to complete the sweep of the Jags and move into first place in the AFC South.
• The Texans overcame three interceptions and won last week, as the passing offense continues to excel in year 1 for QB C.J. Stroud.
• The Texans have the pass efficiency advantage in this one, and their rushing offense has shown signs of life in the last two games with RB Devin Singletary carrying the load.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline Ensemble Forecast model pick, and also a play based on "fading the predictive ratings model extremes."
• Over the last six weeks, underdogs who are rated under -20% cover odds with our predictive ratings model are 6-3 SU for +10.8 units, these are often games where injury info has shifted the line.
• In this case, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, and the Browns plan to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who previously started the 28-3 loss to Baltimore where the Browns had a season-low 166 yards of offense.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model moneyline picks for Week 9.
• Tennessee looked substantially different on offense, with Will Levis throwing four touchdown passes in his first start (Ryan Tannehill had two all season). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been a poor passing offense with our without Kenny Pickett, who said he would play on the short week with a rib injury. He has had more than one TD pass in one start in his career.
• Pittsburgh leads the league in fumbles recovered (8) while being near the top of the NFL in fewest fumbles recovered by opponents (2). They rank at the top of our adjusted turnover margin metric, benefiting from 24 total turnovers/turnovers on downs/missed field goals so far, an area of regression.
• That explains how a team that is getting outgained and has been outscored can still be 4-3. But the Steelers look overvalued, and there’s a chance the Titans have found a better QB, and will have the much better passing offense in this matchup.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• This is also a line that is far off the expected moneyline based on full season power ratings (because of the uncertainty over Joe Burrow and his injury). Over the first two weeks, underdogs on the moneyline that are more than -10% off what we would expect based on power ratings are 5-2 for +5 units. (These also tend to be situations where injuries are impacting the line, beyond the base rating.)
• Joe Burrow's status for this game is up in the air, but we like the pick whether he plays while still hurt (where the Bengals have been really bad on offense and he is averaging under 5 yards per attempt while limited) or Jake Browning, who has never completed a pass in the NFL and is 27 years old, starts instead.
• The Rams are also a live dog, as they are 2nd in the NFL in total yards after two weeks and the offense has returned to form with a healthy Matthew Stafford, even without WR Cooper Kupp.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Michael Grove of Los Angeles and Jose Berrios of Toronto. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Ross Stripling of San Francisco and Graham Ashcraft of Cincinnati. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Tyler Glasnow of Tampa Bay and Charlie Morton of Atlanta.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Sandy Alcantara of Miami and Zack Wheeler of New York. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Wade Miley of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks of Chicago.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Zach Davies of Arizona and Kodai Senga of the Mets.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is MacKenzie Gore of Washington and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corbin Burnes of Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly of Arizona. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hogan Harris of Oakland and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and Matthew Liberatore of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Cristian Javier of Houston and MacKenzie Gore of Washington.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Austin Gomber of Colorado and Garrett Whitlock of Boston. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning of Texas and Tyler Anderson of Los Angeles.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Patrick Sandoval of Los Angeles and Bryan Woo of Seattle. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Jack Flaherty of St. Louis. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Alek Manoah of Toronto and Brandon Bielak of Houston. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is J.P. France of Houston and Sonny Gray of Minnesota.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Louie Varland of Minnesota against Kevin Gausman of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Clarke Schmidt of New York against Kyle Gibson of Baltimore. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Karl Kauffmann of Colorado and Sandy Alcantara of Miami. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Peyton Battenfield of Cleveland against Mike Clevinger of Chicago. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona against Tyler Muller of Oakland. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Luis Ortiz of Pittsburgh and Michael Lorenzen of Detroit. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke of Kansas City against Adrian Houser of Milwaukee.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is James Paxton of Boston against Adam Wainwright of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley of Tampa Bay against Gerrit Cole of New York. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 
• We are getting the division-leading Rays as an underdog here because of the pitching matchup, but when playing on teams using openers (like Tampa Bay tonight) the models have performed at over 10% ROI.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles of Kansas City against Lucas Giolito of Chicago. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hayden Wesneski of Chicago and Sandy Alcantara of Miami.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Roansy Contreras of Pittsburgh and Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Joe Ryan of Minnesota and Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Kyle Bradish of Baltimore and Spencer Strider of Atlanta.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo of Pittsburgh and Jose Berrios of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hunter Greene of Cincinnati and Lance Lynn of Chicago.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Mitch Keller of Pittsburgh and Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Domingo German for New York vs. Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson of Arizona vs. Austin Gomber for Colorado.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Andrew Heaney of Texas vs. Gerrit Cole of New York.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
• The starting pitcher matchup is Drew Smyly for the Cubs and Michael Wacha for San Diego.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
• The starting pitcher matchup is Mike Clevinger for the White Sox and Jose Berrios for Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top rated play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as the second-highest play by our Similar Games Model.
• It is also a top-rated play by our Decision Tree model for both the moneyline and run line.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our second-highest-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick according to our Similar Games model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick (SFA -1) for Wednesday in CBB.
• It's also a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
• Sam Houston State's power rating is inflated by early November results and games against non-Division 1 schools.
• Their "best" performance since November also came against a Utah Tech team playing without its starting point guard.
• Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, has been better since November. Guard Latrell Joss missed games with injury in November, and A.J. Cajuste wasn't in the starting lineup yet. In games with Cajuste at point guard and Joss starting at shooting guard, has a +4.8 power rating, compared to +2.2 in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• The spreads available differ in both the spread and payout odds, in the -1.5 to -2.5 range,
• Utah State lost by 10 to San Diego State on the road two weeks ago, in a game where the difference was San Diego State's +11 advantage in free throws made.
• Utah State actually shot 65% from two, but were only 11-of-33 from three, while San Diego State hit 55% from three (their high all season) but only 44% from two.
• Some model factors here include Utah State's high offensive efficiency in the recent three-game win streak (and all season), and their usually high rate of getting to the line (where the previous San Diego State matchup was an outlier).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
• Further, Texas just fired head coach Chris Beard after he was suspended a month ago. Texas' average rating with Beard before suspension was +21.4, and since the suspension is +12.0, a nine-point dropoff in average performance.
• Texas' defensive numbers have been worse since Beard's suspension, while they are also playing the best defensive team they have faced this year by defensive efficiency metrics.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated playable moneyline pick in college basketball, and so far this year, games with this rated edge are +3.5 units (21 games).
• New Orleans and Houston Christian are the two worst teams in the country at defending 2-point shots, but Houston Christian (68%) is by far worst (compared to 62% for New Orleans) and that poor interior defense is one factor in this game.
• New Orleans opponents have also shot 50% or more from three in two of the last three games, the two highest shooting performances against all year, in an area of positive regression potential.
• New Orleans does not rely on a high volume of outside shots, and this will be by far the easiest opponent they have faced in terms of getting quality shots inside.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
• Denver's Aaron Gordon missed Saturday's game, an 18-point road loss at Memphis, and is unlikely to play in the back-to-back.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
• Kevin Durant is still out (and yet to make his debut for the Suns) while Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a knee injury in Friday night's game and is day-to-day.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Friday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.3 units across 214 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model moneyline play in the NBA for Wednesday night.
• We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
• Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight's game with a left ankle sprain as of the time we posted this pick (while Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable for Dallas).
• Tatum being potentially out or limited with an ankle injury provides the potential for additional value at this line. 
• Other factors our model is picking up includes recent Mavericks' opponents having a low assist-to-turnover margin, Boston's recent opponents scoring a higher amount of points inside the arc, Boston's relatively lower rebound numbers, and Dallas' defensive efficiency in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick for the NBA tonight.
• Zion Williamson is questionable for tonight, after missing last night's game with a foot contusion, and being questionable for that one until ruled out as well.
• Chicago lost last week to New Orleans at home in a close 4-point game where they had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
• One regression factor that our models are picking up is that the Bulls' opponents have had a high Free Throw to Field Goal Attemnpt ratio in the last three games, including the Pelicans having 18 more attempts than the Bulls in their recent matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• Almost 15% of Portland's points this season have come on fastbreaks, the fifth most in the league. However, the Hornets have allowed the fewest fastbreak points in the league this season, and have held opponents to the fewest points per fastbreak.
• This is the 4th game of a 6-game road trip for Portland. Charlotte is playing their third home game in a row.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our playable moneyline picks on NBA underdogs between +110 and +175.
• Some of the factors driving our model pick including the Raptors' opponents having a high assist rate on made field goals, and Atlanta's opponents having a poor assist-to-turnover margin.
• The Raptors recent performance in the second quarter, and overall through three quarters, has been below average, and reflective that the depth for the team has not been productive so far.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• One factor our models are picking up on is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (40%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
• In addition, Brooklyn's foul rate according to a few different measures has been unsustainably high. That includes both personal fouls and technical fouls. Over the long run they'll get a friendlier whistle.
• Conversely, Dallas has drawn an abnormally high number of fouls on offense, and is likely to see regression in this area.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• The Bucks are off to a 2-0 start, while Brooklyn has started 1-2 with two double-digit losses.
• One factor our models are likely picking up is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (44%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
• Another factor is Milwaukee's relatively poor point differential in the second quarter in recent games, which can be indicative of bench depth if a star is more likley to sit for a bigger part of that quarter.
• In this case, Milwaukee is still without Khris Middleton to start the year, and have a massive split in the +/- with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo playing. While they have overcome it so far, the Bucks' depth has not played well and they have been significantly outscored with Giannis out of the game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline NBA pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• Brooklyn is coming off a 22-point home loss to New Orleans in the season opener, while Toronto won against Cleveland in their first game.
• Some of the factors that might contribute to value against Brooklyn in this game include the Nets' extremely poor rebounding rate in the opener, and the high volume of assisted baskets they surrendered (31 on 50 made field goals).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 18.

• The Steelers are playing for a wild card spot, though they still need help. The Browns, meanwhile, get to try to spoil their rival's chances and end Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin's streak of never having a losing season.

• Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games, but they have all been tight games that came down to the wire. We will play on some of the pressure and other game results having an impact here, as well as a Browns' team that has underperformed but still may be motivated to ruin Pittsburgh's season.

• Pittsburgh's mental approach could also be impacted by in-game updates from the results in the games that impact them (New England and Miami) if the results aren't going their way in those games late.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread and moneyline pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, though we prefer to just take the moneyline here since the spread is only 1.5 points.
• These are two teams going in opposite directions, as Ohio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in MAC play after a slow start to the season, while Toledo has closed by going 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS to close conference play.
• Toledo's star QB DeQuan Finn's shoulder injury is a big part of that slide, as he missed two games with the injury, and tried to come back and play last week but had his worst performance all year, going 5-for-11 for only 35 yards and two interceptions in the loss to Western Michigan.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and is playable across all our models (predictive rating, Decision Tree, and similar games).
• Though Kentucky was the higher rated team entering the season, Louisville is now rated higher (No. 21, +12.1) than Kentucky (No. 41, +7.1) in our power ratings.
• Louisville has won and covered 5 of the last 6 games, winning all 5 by at least 14 points.
• Kentucky is 2-5 over the last 7 games, including 0-2 as a betting favorite.
• The line may be influenced by recent series history in the Governor's Cup, as Kentucky has won the last three games in blowouts and Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is 0-3 against Mark Stoops.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but a pick based on injury news and trends.
• Miami fell to 1-8 ATS with 8 straight losses against the spread, with a 45-3 loss to Florida State last week.
• The Hurricanes have major issues on offense and at quarterback, and starter Tyler Van Dyke tried to return from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the previous game, but re-injured it early in the second quarter against Florida State and did not return. 
• The two other QBs for Miami, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown, have combined to average only 6.9 yards per attempt and throw 2 TDs to 5 INTs.
• Georgia Tech fired head coach Geoff Collins after four games, and has gone 3-2 SU and ATS since then.
• The Yellowjackets gave freshman QB Zach Pyron his first career start last week against Virginia Tech, and he responded with over 250 yards passing, and the team put up its highest yard total (463) of the season in the come-from-behind win on the road.
• Most books have this as GT -1.5, which is also playable if you cannot get the pick'em/ML at this payout.
   

Staff notes:

• This is just below playable as a model pick, though our model leans to Missouri in this game. It's a Staff Pick based on recent performance and trends.
• When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 20% of the public is taking Missouri to win this game while our models have them as the slight favorite to win outright.
• This line has also moved from -2.5 for Kentucky at opening, to where it is now fluctuating around a pick'em.
• Kentucky QB Will Levis is considered a NFL prospect, but is playing through ankle and shoulder injuries, and is coming off a terrible performance at Tennessee where he threw for under 100 yards and three interceptions, and the Kentucky line has really struggled to protect him.
• Kentucky started 3-0 ATS, but is 2-3 since, with all three losses coming by at least two touchdowns from the spread.
• Missouri has covered 4 of the last 5 after a slow start, and is coming off a 13-point road win at South Carolina where they held the Gamecocks to 203 total yards.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
• A couple of years ago, we wrote an article about home teams (like Tennessee here) seeking a division sweep.
• Adding in the results since that article was written, teams like the Titans who are going for the sweep after winning game 1 on the road as a small dog (4 or less) and are favored by 4 or less in the rematch are only 16-21 SU and 14-23 ATS since 2008.
• In addition, the Colts offense is getting healthy and will likely have RB Jonathan Taylor back, a week after they scored 34 points and put up 29 first downs against the Jaguars.

Staff notes:

• UPDATE: Most of the injury and player availability news after we made this pick has been negative for the Saints. We no longer recommend this pick, though it will still count in our historical win-loss records.
• This is a playable money line pick and with the spread fluctuating between 1.5 and 2 points we'll prefer the moneyline to paying juice on the points.
• The Saints are a little undervalued right now on defense, just looking at their points allowed. They are about average in yards allowed per game, but rank worse (25th) in points allowed at 25.6 per game.
• Interestingly, the Saints' third-down defense and red-zone defense have been really good. The culprit has been a handful of big plays, as half of the 12 touchdowns scored against New Orleans have been on plays of 40 yards or longer. That includes a couple of defensive scores, but also a big 69-yard run last week by Seattle's Kenneth Walker.
• Saints QB Jameis Winston returned to practice on Wednesday after two weeks off, but the big variable here is the New Orleans wide receiver situation, but we like grabbing some potential moneyline value before that news is finalized.
• Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, yet Cincinnati continues to be run-heavy on early downs despite that inefficiency.
• Bengals WR Tee Higgins has battled injuries, and even though he was active last week on a limited snap count, he saw zero targets, and the offense isn't clicking right now.

Staff notes:

• This is right on the edge of playable according to our models.
• This same pick was featured in our Week 5 Upset Picks article, where our picks are 8-4 SU so far this year through four weeks. 
• Since that was posted, the line has moved further in Washington's direction, but we still like this value.
• Tennessee is 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed so far (7.7), better than only Miami (7.8) and Seattle (8.2). That's even more worrisome considering that the Titans have played only one team (Buffalo) in the upper third of the league in passing.
• The Titans are one of the most popular picks according to our pool picks data, as the public is picking them heavily in game-winner (85%) and spread pools (77%), while we have seen line movment go against them.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated value against the Moneyline, according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
• While neither of these teams have been very good on offense so far in 2022, and are among the bottom teams in the NFL, the Bears' passing offense has been downright putrid.
• Chicago QB Justin Fields has taken a sack on over 15% of his dropbacks, and the Bears have totaled 153 net passing yards in two games. 
• Given that the spread is under the 3 points currently, at 2.5, the better value is to just play the Texans to win outright in Texans' head coach Lovie Smith's return to Chicago, where he coached from 2004-2012.