NFL Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• We highlighted some of our rationale for value on Kansas City as the game winner in our Super Bowl betting article. 
• Our models are showing value at +119 on Kansas City, though that line is not typically available at US-based sportsbooks (it is at some offshores). We were waiting to see if we could find any better value until today in US markets, but this is the best available at BetMGM.
• Some of our arguments/rationale for Kansas City is that while San Francisco has been the better team over the course of the full season, our ratings have Kansas City as the better side since after Thanksgiving, after the point at which SF all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga was lost for the year, and the 49ers defense has been worse.
• KC also concentrated the offense, increasing the share of snaps and targets to rookie WR Rashee Rice, and the team has played its best in the postseason.
• Super Bowl teams that have played out of the Wild Card Round, often winning on the road, have a recent history of that improved form continuing in the Super Bowl, going 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1995.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for the Divisional Round.
• Kansas City has rarely been an underdog with Patrick Mahomes at QB in his career, but are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when getting points, including the SB win last year over Philadelphia.
• Since 2002, underdogs of less than a field goal (KC is +2.5 currently) have a winning record in the playoffs at 23-22 (26-18-1 ATS). We have moneyline records back to 2010 in the playoffs, and since then, underdogs of 2.5 or fewer points are 16-12 SU for +6.4 units.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline and spread pick in Week 17.
• A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. 
• Minnesota won at Green Bay earlier in the year, but the situations have shifted. Minnesota is now starting their fourth QB, rookie Jaren Hall, who briefly started one game earlier but lasted only one quarter before getting hurt. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable moneyline model pick in Week 17.
• The Bucs can clinch the division with a win at home against the Saints, but this has been a division where the underdogs have prevailed. A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. (The Bucs won in New Orleans back in Week 4, 26-9.
• The home team is only 17-27 ATS since 2002 in the Bucs-Saints series, and the Saints are 14-7 SU and ATS in Tampa over the last 21 trips.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 15 (and spread pick).
• This line has been moving downward and is at +2.5 at some places and +3 in others, so we are listing the moneyline as the recommended play, but you could also play the +3 if you can get it.
• The weather in Charlotte is going to be very rough today, the total is at an extremely low 32.5, and there are high expected wind gusts and rain throughout the game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
• The Chargers, quite frankly, are not very good on offense right now. Since WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the team is averaging 17 first downs a game, something that has only gotten worse without WR Josh Palmer as well. First round pick Quentin Johnston has been a huge disappointment. Yes, the Chargers won last week, but did so with 6 total points  and a season-low 13 first downs on offense.
• For the year, the Chargers are 29th in yards allowed and 15th in yards gained, but the two best offensive games by yards came in the first three weeks of the season.
• Denver, meanwhile, is going the opposite way, having poor defensive numbers early, but being competitive since that start to climb back to 6-6. They are coming off a loss where they went -3 in turnovers at Houston, but should have value as a dog in this AFC West tilt.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
• Atlanta won a close game at Tampa Bay back in Week 7 as a slight underdog.
• A few years ago, we wrote a research article on home division teams going for the sweep after winning on the road, and how they underperformed against the spread in the second game. 
• The road team in a division game, seeking to avoid the sweep, was 55.3% ATS from 2008 to 2020.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick (and spread pick at +2) for Week 12.
• Some of the model factors here include Atlanta's poor turnover margin and yardage profile relative to their points scored and allowed, due to turnover margin, New Orleans' poor rushing offense per play numbers, and Atlanta's high rate of rushing the football.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated moneyline plays for Week 7 (and also a playable spread pick at +2.5).
• Atlanta held Washington to just 13 first downs and under 200 total yards last week, but lost partly thanks to three interceptions.
• In fact, several angles for this pick relate to possible regression around luck-related factors. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin on the season, while Atlanta is -6. Atlanta has also underperformed in terms of points scored compared to yards gained.
• Both of these teams’ rush defenses have been stout, but the Bucs have put up poor offensive performances in their two recent losses, with a rushing offense that ranks 32nd in the NFL.
• That could put more pressure on QB Baker Mayfield, as the Atlanta defense is quietly playing well, ranking 4th overall in total yards allowed this season.
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Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 6.
• Houston has covered in three straight, but with the point spread at only +1.5 our models see a little more value on the outright win moneyline than the spread at -110.
• New Orleans is coming off a 34-0 shutout at New England where they forced three turnovers, had two turnovers on downs, and the Patriots missed a field goal, making it one of the most extreme turnover and miscue games of the season.
• Model factors include New Orleans' low season yards per carry (3.4) and Houston allowing few passing touchdowns (a league-leading three allowed so far in five games).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Washington has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year, and are coming off an embarrassing performance, especially for the defense, where they allowed Chicago to roll, and WR D.J. Moore to have over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Washington now ranks 31st in points allowed.
• But they now get to play an Atlanta team that has not been very explosive and is not an agressive passing team. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder only has four passing TDs this year, none longer than 15 yards (two were basically short passes behind the line to Bijan Robinson).
• So we’ll play on the better offense getting positive value, against a team that has yet to show consistency on that side of the ball, and for Washington’s defense to show a little better than their recent effort.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 5.
• The “London” Jaguars got to stay in England for two straight weeks and welcome the Buffalo Bills this week. Buffalo has been rolling over the last three weeks, though the fickle shift of the turnover gods has been a part in just how dominant they have appeared.
• After four turnovers in the opening loss to the Jets, things have swung wildly the other way, with Buffalo at +9 in turnovers over the most recent three games. Some of that extreme turnover performance is what our models are picking up.
• We also like the potential value of the unknown situation of one team getting a travel advantage in London, something that has never happened before.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline (and spread pick at +2.5) in Week 4.
• The Bengals won 19-16 last week, taking advantage of a LT injury for the Rams to shut down their offense and create lots of pressure last week, but the offense is still not clicking.
• Some of the key model factors here including the Titans' strong rush defense (2.6 yards per carry allowed) and the Bengals' low rate of picking up first downs on the ground, Cincinnati's low passing yards totals in recent games, and the Titans' rush to pass splits.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top model plays on the moneyline for Week 1 and one of the picks featured in Wednesday's Upset Picks.
• Cleveland has played well against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense in the past, including holding the Bengals to their lowest offensive output of the 2022 season.
• Burrow is coming off a preseason where he suffered an early calf injury and had limited practice time.
• There's some uncertainty upside on this Browns team as a home dog in the opener, as Deshaun Watson struggled in his late-season return last year after multiple years not playing, but the team could be a better passing team early in 2023.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model shows 3% of value on Minnesota against the moneyline.
• News just came out in the middle of the night confirming that LT David Bakhtiari, RT Elgton Jenkins, and WR Allen Lazard will not be playing for Green Bay.
• Since 2002, the Vikings are 6-5 straight up and 8-3 against the spread when getting points at home against the Packers, including going 5-2 straight up as an underdog of three points or fewer.