NFL Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is similar to a prop we posted in our picks article, but without the H2H component with Patrick Mahomes. 
• Purdy's rushing splits are heavily dependent on game script. When the 49ers are blowing teams out, he does not run. When it is a closer game, he does.
• In the nine games the 49ers won by 14 or more points, Purdy ran only 15 total times for 33 yards.
• In the nine games the 49ers lost, or won by less than 14 points, Purdy ran 35 times for 173 yards.
• In this game with a 2-point spread, against a Chiefs team that rarely loses big with Mahomes at QB, we'll play on Purdy continuing his recent form on the ground (11 carries for 62 yards in the playoffs).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "TD props" tab and the "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" link.
• Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. When it turns to the postseason, the Chiefs turn to their best weapon in the red zone.
• Our projections show slight value here at the +100 line available at FanDuel, with a 52.3% chance of scoring in this game.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Super Bowl MVP" tab and then scroll down past the individual player bets. 
• A couple of years ago, we took a look at Super Bowl MVPs. One of the interesting things was the correlation between the Over/Under for the game and whether a QB won MVP. 
• While 83% of SB MVPs have been quarterbacks when the pre-game Over/Under is 52.0 or higher, 60% of MVPs have been QBs when it is between 48.0 and 51.5 points, and 50% have been QBs when it has been 44.0 to 47.5 points.
• Right now, the most common Over/Under is 47.5 points, and it has been hovering in that range all week.
• So we think we are getting a little value at the +200 line on a non-QB winning, given the expected total and the amount of defensive and skill player talent that could garner the award in this game.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Receiving Props" tab and "Total Number of Kansas City Chiefs to Have a Reception."
• For the full season, Kansas City has had at least 8 players record a reception in 15 of 19 games started by Patrick Mahomes. Why then, do we like the Under here?
• It's taken most of the season, but Kansas City has started to consolidate the passing targets on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Isiah Pacheco has carried the backfield. Over the last four games with Mahomes starting, including the playoff matchups, the Under on this number would have hit three times. The one time it did not, six different players had exactly one catch, with three of those catching their only target of the game.
• The offense has been better with more of the offense going through the Kelce and Rice combo, and we expect that trend to continue.
• It also looks more likely that RB Jerick McKinnon (who was designated to return from IR) will not play, and WR Kadarius Toney will not be activate for the game. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Player Props" tab and the George Kittle Props section.
• Our projection for Kittle is 59.2 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
• Kittle typically becomes a bigger part of the game plan in games where the matchup is expected to be closer, and he shows up more prominently in big games.
• Over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 65.0 receiving yards in games where the pre-game spread was 7 points or lower, and only 43.2 yards in the games with larger spreads.
• The strength of the Chiefs' secondary is also the two starting cornerbacks, and Kansas City's relative weakness at rush defense could also open up big play opportunities down the middle of the field, and matched up on linebackers and safeties, an area that Kittle excels.

Staff notes:

• Dallas Goedert had 0 catches in the Week 1 opener versus New England, and was only targeted once. It marked the first time since 2019 that the tight end had no catches.
• This number is directly on where we would put Goedert's per-game average based on our preseason projections, but with the matchup against Minnesota and the likelihood that the Eagles' game plan seeks to establish Goedert early following last week's lack of usage, there is Over value.
• After last week, head coach Nick Sirianni said: "This reminds me a lot of last year against the Lions," Sirianni said. "Smitty [WR DeVonta Smith] had no catches against the Lions last year. This year, it was Dallas. We can't go a game without getting him the football. He's too good of a playmaker but there are some things that the Patriots did that made it difficult for us to be able to get him some quick, easy touches."
• After his previous lowest catch outing under Sirianni (Week 12 of 2021, 1 catch for 0 yards against the Giants), Goedert came back the next week and had one of the best games of his career, with 6 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs against the Jets. 
• Since Jalen Hurts became starting QB in 2021, Goedert has had 49 or more receiving yards in 18 of 32 games (56%).

Staff notes:

• Deonte Harty is very likely the Bills' starting slot WR based on preseason usage, as he was on the field for 75% of the snaps with the first team offense in the August 19th game, ahead of guys like Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield.
• You might remember Harty as Deonte Harris, as he changed his last name to honor his stepfather. He missed most of last year with a turf toe injury with the Saints, but had over 500 yards receiving in 2021, and went over 20 yards in 10 of 12 games played that year.
• So we think we are getting some value here on this number for a guy who could play a significant amount of snaps in the slot for Buffalo, because of uncertainty, not playing much last year, and playing with a new team. This is a Bills team that struggled to replace the Cole Beasley role last year (with Isaiah McKenzie/Shakir/Jamison Crowder) and Harty could be serving in that vital role.
• There's also matchup-related reasons to like Harty here. The Jets' Sauce Gardner is one of the best cover corners in the NFL, and should be matched up on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the better opportunities might come for the Bills' slot and tight end spots.
• Harty is a big YAC and quickness/speed guy and just needs a few opportunities to hit this number, maybe even one. 
• We aren't listing it as an official play, but for a lot of the same reasons, we like Harty as a "any time TD scorer" for Buffalo at his longshot price (+650 at FD, +700 at DK). 

Staff notes:

• Last year, after the Bears switched up the offense for the New England game on Monday Night Football, he went on a streak of five straight games scoring a TD, until he suffered an injury that caused him to miss the Jets game (he only scored once after that while playing through injury.)
• He comes into this game healthy, and with better weapons on the outside. Add in that the Bears are in a rivalry game and a slight favorite (a role they will likely not be in much over the year), so we project Fields to have a better than 40% chance of scoring.

Staff notes:

• Jalen Hurts has thrown only six interceptions all season, and has a low 1.3% interception rate.
• However, in looking over past Super Bowl games, the interception rate for the quarterback entering the game has little relation to whether interceptions were thrown in the Super Bowl.
• In fact, 80% of the quarterbacks in the last 20 years who had an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in the regular season threw a pick in the Super Bowl.
• The last game without any interceptions thrown in the Super Bowl was all the way back in Rams vs. Titans in January of 2000.
• Seventeen of the last 26 starting QBs in the Super Bowl have thrown a pick.
• In a similarity analysis of teams most similar to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, nine of the ten QBs threw a pick, and it included a lot of rushing QBs and low volume passers in the regular season.

Staff notes:

• The Kansas City Chiefs are playing to clinch the No. 1 seed and get a bye in the AFC Playoffs against the Raiders, and Mahomes should be a big part of the game plan anyway.
• Mahomes also has an outside chance of setting the NFL single-season passing record, needing 430 yards to pass Peyton Manning's 2013 mark. 
• Mahomes is also playing to clinch the NFL MVP award with a big final week performance, as he is currently the heavy favorite.
• As a result of all that, we expect Kansas City to be very pass heavy early, especially given the matchup, and throw at a rate even higher than his median pass attempts per game (39).
• The Raiders are also 28th in net yards per pass allowed, 29th in total pass yards allowed, and 30th in interceptions, with only 6 all year.

Staff notes:

• Based on the 37.5 point total and the 7-point spread, our passing projection for this game is about 22 yards below the offered prop line.
• San Francisco's defense has given up only 11.0 points per game over the last seven games, which leads to lower passing volume in the second half when playing with the lead.
• After coming off the bench and throwing 37 times, Purdy has 21 and 26 pass attempts in his two starts so far, for 402 total passing yards in those starts. He is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt.
• Unless the Washington team has an offensive explosion, this feels like another low-volume passing game for the rookie, and he will have to have really high pass efficiency to get over this total.

Staff notes:

• Desmond Ridder is making his first career start for Atlanta, after being drafted in the 3rd round of this year's NFL Draft.
• Going back to 2010, 16 rookies made their first start in Week 10 or later, who were drafted outside the first two rounds. Eleven of them threw at least one interception, and six of them threw multiple interceptions in their debut.

Staff notes:

• The total in this game is only 41 points, and with the Rams expected to struggle to score points, that should impact how aggressive Seattle is.
• With DT Aaron Donald out, expect Seattle to run the ball with Kenneth Walker at a high rate if playing with the lead.
• Our passing model sees about 30 yards of value on the Under in this game.
• Geno Smith's passing over/unders have been correlated with Seattle's wins or losses. He has gone Under his passing total in 4 of 6 wins, and over in 4 of 5 losses.

Staff notes:

• Mahomes has had 290 or more passing yards in six straight, explaining the high total, but this is a pick based on the huge spread and low Rams' expected point total based on starting a third-string QB. 
• That could impact Mahomes' passing volume and pushing ball down the field, as the Rams' offense will be limited and the Chiefs will likely recognize that the Rams likely need to create turnovers to succeed.
• Our passing model projects 20 yards of value on this under based on the likely game script and spread in this game.

Staff notes:

• Tony Pollard has had 80+ rushing yards in each of the last four games.
• Even in the last game against Minnesota with Ezekiel Elliott returning, Pollard had as many rushing attempts as Elliott (15) and nearly doubled him up in rushing yards (80 to 42).
• Pollard also put up over 100 receiving yards last week and is Dallas' best playmaker, and we don't think his role diminishes in this Thanksgiving spotlight game.
• Our team projection for Dallas overall rushing yards is 137.5 based on the spread and over/under, so Pollard would have to account for less than half that projection to hit this Over.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on the Chargers' injury situation plus the Atlanta defense.
• The Chargers will be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at WR, and their depth has also been hit hard by injuries. That leaves WR Josh Palmer, TE Gerald Everett, and WR Michael Bandy (4 career catches) as the top options.
• Everett has averaged 43.6 yards, and exceeded this yardage total in 4 of 7 games played so far.
• With the injury situation, he should see an even larger target share than normal.
• Atlanta's defense has been really bad against the pass, ranking dead last in yards allowed (307 per game), and allowing multiple big games per week to opposing receivers.

Staff notes:

• Our passing yards model has Fields projected for 194 passing yards, nearly 25 yards of value.
• After a historically poor passing start to the season, Fields has had more than 170 yards passing in 4 of the last 5 games.
• The defense also traded away two of its best players in recent weeks, and the point total in this game is climbing reflecting the Bears' likely poor defense.
• Chicago also traded for WR Chase Claypool to give Fields another receiving option.
• The Dolphins are capable of pushing the score and requiring the Bears to pass enough to hit this low total.
• Opponent QBs have gone over the yardage total in 5 of 8 games, but it is 5 of 6 in the games that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa starts, as the two most recent unders came in games the Dolphins trailed throughout and the team played without Tua, so the opponent did not pass much late.

Staff notes:

• Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Over value on this prop based on the spread and total and Baltimore's projected pass/run distribution.
• Our Over/Under model also has this as a playable total pick at BAL/CLE Over 46.0
• Baltimore WR Rashod Batemen is expected to play today after missing the last two games with a foot injury. 
• Bateman is Baltimore's top receiver and deep threat, and Jackson's yards per attempt has been higher in four games with Bateman (7.6) versus two without (6.0).
• Cleveland is also a Staff Pick against the spread, making this a correlated wager with that spread play, as Jackson is more likely to throw a higher number of passes if Baltimore doesn't cover the spread of -6.5.
  
  
  
   

Staff notes:

• Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Under value on this based on the spread, total, and Bengals projected pass-run distribution.
• Atlanta is 31st in pass attempts faced so far, and 30th in third down conversion percentage allowed, two areas that explain why this total is pushed to the highest of the week in the passing prop market at most books.
• But that provides an area for regression downward, as Atlanta's pass numbers (291.2 per game allowed) are pushed up by pass volume against, including several games where Atlanta played with a big lead despite being an underdog.
• Our Over/Under models also give an Under lean on the total.

Staff notes:

• Rondale Moore plays the slot role in the Arizona offense, and this role has generated volume this year.
• Moore missed the first 3 games with injury, when Greg Dortsch played that position, and then they split the role in Week 4 in Moore's return.
• Overall, the two have averaged 6.2 receptions and 55.3 yards per game, with Moore totaling 13 catches the last two weeks while getting healthier.
• Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension this week, but leading receiver Marquise Brown suffered an injury, so Moore should still have a starting role as the slot receiver.
• Arizona is also currently thin at RB with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, and could use more short designed passes in place of the running game.

Staff notes:

• This is the second-highest point total on the board (50.5) this week, and even with our over/under models showing value on the Under, we still show nearly 20 yards of value on the passing yards going over here.
• Seattle's pass defense is dead last in efficiency and net yards per pass against, and has allowed four of five teams to average over 8 yards per pass attempt (San Fran at 7.7 was only team that did not so far).
• Arizona is also without RBs James Conner and Darrel Williams, leaving Eno Benjamin, more of a combo threat, as the only healthy normal rotation running back available. As a result of that injury situation we expect Arizona to be more pass heavy..

Staff notes:

• George Pickens has been the most productive receiving option for Pittsburgh since Kenny Pickett took over at QB 6 quarters ago. 
• Pickens was a revelation in the preseason and looked like a future star with his athletic ability, but got off to a slow start with Mitchell Trubisky unable to get him (or anyone else) the ball consistently.
• This receiving number is close to in line with his season average, but he's had games of 102 and 81  yards with Pickett pushing the ball downfield.
• We'll play on this connection between the two rookies being real, and for Pickens to continue to emerge.
   

Staff notes:

• Pacheco has accounted for approximately 30% of the Chiefs rushing yards (and attempts) through four games.
• Our projection for the Chiefs rushing yard over/under is 108.4 against the Raiders.
• That would project Pacheco for 32.5 yards against the Raiders, over 10 yards of value.
• After mostly being used in late game/reserve situations the first three weeks, the rookie Pacheco matched Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 6 first half rush attempts last week against Tampa Bay, en route to a 63-yard day, and could be in line for a bigger early role going forward.

Staff notes:

• Our passing yards model show over 20 yards of value on the Under for Garoppolo.
• The total for this game is the lowest of the week, 39.5, and San Francisco is a larger road favorite at 6.5 points. That puts San Francisco's opponent, Carolina, tied for the second-lowest implied point total at 16.5 points this week.
• The Panthers are 32nd in plays run so far, and San Francisco is 23rd, so this projects as a game played at a slow pace and with a reduced number of plays.
• Carolina's pass defense has been pretty good this year, ranking in the top 10 in net yards per pass. Only one opponent has passed for more than 207 yards, and that was New Orleans throwing 41 times while trailing by multiple scores the entire second half.
• Given Carolina's offensive struggles and San Francisco's strong pass defense, we project a low-volume pass approach from the 49ers this week, as they try to limit mistakes.
   

Staff notes:

• Our passing model shows over 30 yards of value on Wilson's over here.
• The point total in this game, 45.5, is slightly above average for the week, and this really low passing total is off line with the expected points in this game combined with the Jets pass-run profile.
• The Jets have thrown the most passes in the NFL, and even in Wilson's return last week, he threw 36 passes in a game that was closer to situation-neutral compared to the first three weeks (where the Jets trailed by a lot in each game). 
• Miami could be without starting corner Xavien Howard in addition to still missing Byron Jones, and if Howard plays he may not be 100%.
• Miami is a blitz-heavy team who should bring pressure against Wilson, but that creates volatility and we look for there to be opportunities for big plays both ways in this game.

Staff notes:

• Josh Allen's rushing production is correlated with the type of matchup he is facing, and he runs less when the Bills are a heavier favorite.
• Since the start of 2021, in 13 games where Bills were favored by 6 or more, Allen averaged 5.7 rush attempts for 36.8 yards, while in 10 games where the spread was 4.5 or lower, he averaged 9.2 rush attempts and 61.3 yards.
• Allen is coming off consecutive road games at Miami and Baltimore where he ran the ball 19 total times, and the Bills have a key showdown against Kansas City next week where they are likely to ask Allen to make lots of plays with his feet.
• The Bills are favored by 14 points in this matchup with Pittsburgh, with QB Kenny Pickett making his first career start, and we project Buffalo to game plan fewer designed runs for Allen in this matchup and save him for higher leverage games.

Staff notes:

• We have an Under lean on Pittsburgh's passing yards in this game, with Kenny Pickett making his first career start against the Bills defense, in a game where the Steelers are 14-point underdogs, and project Pittsburgh for 189 yards passing.
• Chase Claypool has been falling behind other Pittsburgh receivers, over his last eight games played, he's averaging a woeful 4.2 yards per target.
• When Pickett replaced Mitch Trubisky at QB for the start of the second half last week, Claypool was the target of his first pass attempt, but it was deflected off Claypool's hands and was intercepted.
• Claypool was not targeted again, and finished with 0 receptions. Meanwhile, rookie George Pickens emerged with his first 100-yard receiving game, with most coming in the second half with Pickett at QB.
• Claypool also saw his snaps fall from over 90% in the first three weeks to 73% in Week 4.
• So we'll play against Claypool as the fourth option, and one that could be in decline, in a tough game environment at Buffalo.

Staff notes:

• Based on our player prop model using spread and over/under, we project Mayfield for 239.5 passing yards in this game, 34 yards of value.
• Through three games, Mayfield has thrown only 81 passes and is completing a career-low 51.9 percent (career: 61.2)
• The Carolina Panthers have also run only 51.3 plays per game (excluding sacks) so far, well below expectation through three weeks.
• An examination of the 10 most similar teams since 2010 by pass plays and total plays run, scoring, and opponent total plays through three games shows that eight of the 10 went over this pass yard total in Week 4, and saw their total plays run move upward.
• So we see some positive regression potential if the Panthers can just move closer to league average in plays run.
• In addition, the Cardinals are dead last in Net Yards per Attempt allowed (8.0) after three games, so Mayfield can hit this number on increased efficiency in additon to increased volume.

Staff notes:

• We also added Cleveland/Atlanta Over and this is a correlated bet with that staff pick.
• Even before our lean to the game total Over, though, our player prop model shows value on Mariota's passing yards, projecting him for 237.9 yards given the game total and spread.
• With Browns star DE Myles Garrett now officially ruled out, we like Mariota to have more time in the pocket to make some plays downfield to weapons like WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.
   

Staff notes:

• Based on the current spread (-5) and 53.5 point total, our player prop model projects Tua for 279.5, 26 points of Over value.
• Tagoavailoa has gone over his prop total in both of the first two weeks with WR Tyreek Hill now on the team and with new coach Mike McDaniel, and Miami has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL through two weeks.
• Buffalo has a lot of defensive injuries, and will be without starting S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson, and could also be missing S Jordan Poyer on Sunday.
• That thin secondary opens opportunity for big plays by Miami's receiving super duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Staff notes:

• So far this year, Wentz has attempted 87 pass attempts through two games, but our models show value on the Under here with Washington in the underdog role.
• Wentz is projected for 32.5 pass attempts in our model, a value of 4 attempts. 
• Washington ranks third in third-down conversions at 56%, behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia, a factor that has contributed to them running more than 10 more plays than their opponents in both games.
• They also trailed Detroit by double digits starting in the late first quarter of Week 2 and chased the game at high attempts all day.
• Teams have passed at a high rate against the Eagles so far while trailing, but the Eagles rate top 5 in pass efficiency D. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is allowing 6.2 yards per carry so far this year.
• Washington is more likely to adopt a more balanced attack given those factors, and is also at risk of regression in third down rates and extending drives that increase pass attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on the injury to Las Vegas slot WR Hunter Renfrow, who will miss Week 3, as well as the illness status of RB Josh Jacobs.
• Adams only had 2 catches last week, after a big Week 1 debut with the Raiders, so we are also playing on a bounce back and the team focusing on getting him the ball early.
• With Renfrow out (tied for 2nd-most targets on team so far), that opens up more target opportunities and increases the odds of slot usage for Adams.
• Last week, Bills WR Stefon Diggs also lit up this Titans secondary, which is missing multiple pass rushers.

Staff notes:

• With the Bills' defense depleted and focused on stopping the explosive Miami WRs, there will be opportunities for Edmonds to make plays and also get rushing volume to keep the Bills' offense off the field.
• Our projection is for 42.6 yards for Edmonds, more than 10 yards of value.
• Edmonds has 17 rush attempts, leading Miami so far, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry through two weeks, well below his career 4.6 YPC, also providing some value on positive regression in his yards per rush against this prop.

Staff notes:

• Our models have both sides projected for over the passing prop numbers in this game, but see the biggest individual value on Moore's Over for yards.
• We project Moore for 71.2 receiving yards, a value of 12.7 yards over the prop.
• Moore had only 43 yards on 3 catches (6 targets) last week as fellow WR Robbie Anderson had the biggest game and caught a 75-yard bomb from new QB Baker Mayfield.
• However, Moore is one of the best young receivers in the game, and has had 59 or more receiving yards in 31 of 48 games started since the start of the 2019 season, so this number seems a little low and maybe an (over)reaction to one game with Mayfield at QB.

Staff notes:

• Taylor had 14 receiving yards last week, but did have four receptions and seven total targets in the passing game.
• Washington running backs (the team that played Jacksonville last week) had 10 combined catches for 92 receiving yards.
• With star WR Michael Pittman out, it's not clear which other WRs will see the biggest target opportunities, but one projectable thing is that Taylor will be on the field for a lot of snaps, and more targets should be funneled to the backs with Pittman not playing.

Staff notes:

• You can also get 30.5 (-130) at DraftKings.
• Our prop model for pass attempts, based on spread/total and our team stat projections, is for 35.4 pass attempts for Mayfield.
• In seven games last year with Christian McCaffrey playing, the Panthers exceeded 32 pass attempts in five of them, including three wins. The two lowest pass attempt games came with Cam Newton at QB.
• Baker Mayfield is playing his former team, and we anticipate that getting a healthy Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore involved in the short passing game will be a big part of the gameplay.
• We show value on passing yards and completions as well, but the attempts prop is the highest value play here.

Staff notes:

• Elijah Moore is a second-year breakout that we project as a fringe top 25 WR this year.
• In his last 6 games played last year, he averaged 65.3 receiving yards and scored 5 touchdowns, before missing the final five weeks of the season.
• In the only game where Joe Flacco started last year, Moore had a career-high 8 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model has the Rams/Bills Over 52.0 as a playable pick, so there's value on a higher scoring game.
• Our player prop passing model, which utilizes the spread and total, and also our team stat projections, projects Stafford for 284.1 yards, about 14 yards of value.
• The Bills led the NFL in net passing yards allowed last season and feasted on poor quarterbacks, but in their five highest Over/Under games (49.0 or higher) all five went over.
• Star cornerback Tre'Davious White missed the last eight games of last year (including the playoffs) and is starting on the PUP list.
• Patrick Mahomes (378 passing yards) and Tom Brady (363 passing yards), the two other star quarterbacks Buffalo has faced recently, both had big games against the Bills without White.