NFL Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• Our fantasy projection for Brandin Cooks is 626 receiving yards, nearly 150 yards of value.
• Our projection is built based on team overall projection and projected role, player similarity comparisons, and market data from fantasy football drafts.
• Brandin Cooks is currently WR42 in Underdog Best Ball Rankings, but has the same yardage prop total as Christian Kirk (WR27) and only 25 yards under Michael Pittman (WR28) showing a potential mis-price on Cooks value relative to the fantasy market data.
• Optimism on Cook's role as the WR2 in Dallas is driving some of this optimism, but our "similar players" analysis, which also incorporates players with similar recent production, age, and market draft value, is much lower on Cooks. 
• Of the top 20 most similar players, only four went over this total, and none of the 12 most similar reached 775 yards (29-31 year old receivers who saw a similar dropoff to Cooks last year, and were drafted in a similar range).

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Davante Adams is 1166 receiving yards in 2023.
• Adams has put up more than 1,300 yards receiving in the last three seasons, which is why this total is higher.
• Adams' total is equal to Tyreek Hill's at DraftKings, and only behind Justin Jefferson (and ahead of Ja'Marr Chase). Those other three guys are the top three wide receivers being drafted, while Adams' fantasy market ADP is at WR9.
• Our similar player analysis also shows a risk of injury/drop-off as other elite wide receivers have slowed at about this age (most recently, Julio Jones at age 31). 
• This is also an off-market line, as FanDuel has it at 1200.5. We don't see value at that FanDuel line but do at this higher number.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Denver is 7.8 wins, and we give Denver a 60.3% chance of finishing with 8 or fewer wins.
• Denver finished at 5-12 a year ago, and was dead last in points scored in the NFL. This large projected win total is due to an expected bounceback with Sean Payton taking over as head coach.
• We still like the value on the Under here because of the number of outs. Those include the tough schedule, the possibility that Russell Wilson is in real decline at age 35, and that Payton's impact could be overvalued.
• Wilson showed signs of decline his last year in Seattle, and then followed it up with the worst statistical year of his career.
• Since 2000, Super Bowl coaches who took at least a year off before returning to coaching are 4-6 on win total overs, averaging 6.3 wins (versus 7.7 average win total).

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Valdes-Scantling is 439 yards, nearly 200 yards of under value.
• Valdes-Scantling finished last year with 687 receiving yards while playing all 17 games, on an offense that led the NFL in passing yards (8th most all-time). 
• He is the 4th KC wide receiver by best ball average draft position, and faces a lot of potential competition including Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross, and Justin Watson as an outside receiver. 
• As a result, there are a lot of outs to this under, including injury, the offense being slightly less explosive overall, and Valdes-Scantling losing snaps and targets to younger competition.

Staff notes:

• Our fantasy projection for D.J. Chark is 575 yards, about 150 yards of under value. 
• Chark signed a one-year deal with the Panthers this offseason, joining a crowded group looking to emerge with Carolina, after the team traded WR D.J. Moore to Chicago as part of the deal to acquire the first overall pick.
• This is an Under play based on what looks like a mis-price of Chark relative to the market, and playing against the uncertainty in Carolina with the receiving situation, and how good the passing game will be with Bryce Young at QB as a rookie.
• In Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, D.J. Chark is WR66, very similar to his WR62 rank in our PPR projections where we project him for 575 yards.
• The Carolina wide receiver situation has veteran signings Chark and Adam Thielen, a second-round pick of Jonathan Mingo, and third-year receiver Terrace Marshall.
• The fantasy market has Mingo and Thielen ahead of Chark, while our similar player analysis prefers both Mingo and Marshall based on age and performance of similar comps.
• Regardless, it's a wide open situation, and it's far from certain that Chark emerges as the top receiver, or one of the top two, and he also has a lengthy injury history and is now age 27.
• In a review of all teams in the last decade that had a top 10 pick at QB start as a rookie for majority of games, those 16 teams only produced 14 total WRs that got over 725 yards receiving. Only two (those with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert at QB, and with Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams) had two different receivers from the same team hit that mark.
• So we see some serious under value and outs where the Panthers passing game may not produce any WRs that hit that mark, and further, Chark is far from certain to be the one that emerges.

Staff notes:

• We project the Philadelphia for 10.7 wins in 2023, and give them a 60.9% chance of finishing with 11 or fewer wins.
• This is a slightly off-market line, as most books have the Eagles at 10.5 with higher juice on the over. BetMGM for example is at 10.5 -150/+125. So we like this play specifically if catching the 11.5 number, and see slight value on the 10.5 line at most books.
• Philadelphia was one of the healthier teams in 2022 as measured by adjusted games lost, helping fuel their run to the Super Bowl.
• The Eagles also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs.
• Teams like Philadelphia, who have a much higher volume of rushing TDs and rushing attempts compared to passing, tend to regress at a higher rate than teams built on higher volume passing (like Kansas City and Cincinnati) and while the market is somewhat accounting for this, there is still some potential value on playing against the Eagles, who benefited from some extreme game scripts a year ago.
• Philadelphia played the 24th-most difficult schedule in 2022, and caught a schedule with a lot of bad quarterbacks and offenses a year ago, something else that should regress in 2023, as we currently project them with the 7th-most difficult schedule with matchups against the balanced AFC East and Kansas City in the non-conference games.

Staff notes:

• Our projection on Jalen Hurts is 24.0 TD passes in 2022, about 2.5 TD passes of value.
• We project some positive regression for Philadelphia in the passing game in terms of second half attempts and TD passes. Last year, the Eagles played with big leads in the second half of lots of games, and Hurts rarely passed late. He ended up throwing 22 TD passes last year (in 15 games) but 14 of those came in the first half of games, for 64% of his pass TDs coming before halftime.
• For perspective, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert have averaged throwing 54% of their TD passes in the first half, and Hurts himself threw 55% of his career TD passes in the first half before last year.
• The Eagles (25 TD passes, 32 rush TDs) were very rush TD heavy a year ago playing with those big leads, and while they will still score a lot of rush TDs, we see that balancing out a bit more with a tougher schedule in 2023.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Trevor Lawrence passing yards is 4,245, more than 350 yards of value.
• Lawrence passed for 4,113 yards in 2022 while playing every game.
• We project a slight uptick in his per-game passing production in 2023, based on our similar teams projections and based on his age and production last year. 
• We also see other reasons to project a passing volume increase, including that Jacksonville's increase in passing volume over the second half of last season was masked by playing with the lead more (they averaged 2.0 more pass attempts over the last 10 games compared to the first 9, while going 7-3 in the last 10 and 3-6 in the first nine). 
• The team also gets WR Calvin Ridley from his year-long suspension, giving the Jaguars a better receiving group overall with Ridley joining Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones.

Staff notes:

• Our NFL projections give New Orleans a 53% chance of making the playoffs and a 47% chance of missing.
• This line at DraftKings is even further off from what is available at some other sites, giving an implied break-even of 37.7% chance that the Saints miss the playoffs. 
• New Orleans is the projected favorite in a weak NFC South, but there are reasons for fading them at this line.
• Derek Carr signed with the Saints to be their starting QB after spending his career with the Raiders. Since 2003, there have been 26 cases where a veteran QB changed teams, and his new team was projected with a win total of 8 or more (the Saints are at 9.5).
• Of those 26 teams, only 10 of them went over the win total, and only 9 of them made the playoffs, despite having an average win total of 9.1 (they finished with 8.2 wins on average, just over 50%).
• If you throw out the Hall of Fame caliber veterans like Manning to the Broncos, Favre to the Vikings, and Brady to the Bucs, the success rate goes down even further. Those examples are more in line with Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, but are not similar to Derek Carr.
• In general, our research has shown that teams with a new veteran QB are poor value in win totals, and the impact of a new veteran QB can be overvalued.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Desmond Ridder is 3066 passing yards in 2023, a significant edge of over 500 yards compared to this opening line on FanDuel.
• The Atlanta Falcons were 31st in the NFL in passing yards in 2022, with 2,927 combined passing yards between Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder.
• Ridder started the final four games a year ago as a rookie, averaging 177 passing yards. He did so without star tight end Kyle Pitts playing in any of those four games and with a limited set of receiving options. 
• Our projections for Ridder and the Atlanta passing game are based on the team win total, and similar teams and player comps, including teams with a new young QB taking over. 
• Since 1990, there have been only nine cases that meet the following criteria: (1) a second-year QB who started fewer than 8 games the year before is taking over, (2) and that QB was drafted in rounds 2 through 4. 
• Those QBs averaged 2849 passing yards and 14.1 games started, and those numbers were mostly from the 16-game era. Six of the nine passed for more than 2,500 yards. 
• We see significant value in this passing yard total because of positive regression in the Atlanta game going from Mariota to a second-year Ridder, plus the young talent in the Atlanta offense. Ridder would only have to play 13 games and average just under 200 yards a start to get to this number.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Amon-Ra St. Brown is for 1,165 yards, over 200 yards of value with this line. (the line at Caesar's is a bit higher, at 1000.5).
• St. Brown is currently the WR9 in ADP at FantasyPros. The five receivers closest to him in ADP who have a posted receiving total at DraftKings are at an average of 1,145 yards, also nearly 200 yards higher than the number posted for St. Brown.
• St. Brown has averaged 78 yards per game over his last 22 games, starting with the final six games of his rookie year, and is the clear top receiver for Detroit.
• Jameson Williams, the Lions' first round pick a year ago, is also suspended for the first six games due to a gambling policy violation, so St. Brown should garner large target shares to start the year.
• Of the 20 most comparable players by age, draft position, production, and ADP in our similar players database, 70% went over 1,000 yards receiving the next season.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Lamar Jackson is 4.6 rushing touchdowns, nearly two touchdowns of under value here.
• Lamar Jackson is coming off two years where he missed games, played in 24 total games, and had only five rushing touchdowns.
• His career-high, seven touchdowns, would have narrowly cleared this number and both came in seasons when he had over 1,000 rushing yards.
• The Ravens are changing offensive coordinators, and Lamar Jackson has already said he would run less under OC Todd Monken. The market adjusted to that with a downgrade in his rushing total, but not his rushing TD total.
• Given his recent health history, aging into his mid-30's, and the likely emphasis on keeping him healthy and running less, we see value on Jackson not hitting this high rush TD total.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Diontae Johnson is for 707 receiving yards for the 2023 season.
• Johnson finished with 882 receiving yards last season, while playing in all 17 games, and having almost 150 targets. 
• Our projection for Johnson is based not only on his own comps, but also the positive comparable players for the next two players on last year's Steelers team, 21-year old rookie George Pickens and 24-year old TE Pat Freiermuth.
• Diontae Johnson will turn 27 before this season, and has averaged a paltry 6.4 yards per target over the last three seasons, and 6.0 last year, while commanding a high target share.
• He needs to stay healthy and maintain that high target share (or dramatically increase his efficiency at age 27), and we see a higher likelihood of the more efficient younger players carving out a bigger role in their second and third years respectively.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Dameon Pierce is 830 rushing yards this year, about 70 yards of Under value.
• Of the 12 most similar players in our similar player analysis, 9 of them rushed for fewer than 900 yards in the next season.
• Those similar players are based on average fantasy draft position for the upcoming season, age, previous year stats, and NFL draft position and experience. 
• Pierce had an extremely high rush share of the Texans' offense, accounting for 74% of all rush attempts in the first 13 games, and then missed the final 4 games last year with an ankle injury.
• He had basically zero competition at RB a year ago, but the team added Devin Singletary from the Bills, and also has a new coaching staff and QB, creating more variance around Pierce continuing with the workload he had as a rookie.

Staff notes:

• UPDATE: about an hour after we posted this pick, news broke that Jalen Hurts' status for next week is uncertain after a shoulder injury. That caused the market to get pulled temporarily, and it has re-opened at -300 to -350 for Mahomes depending on book. You can read our logic below on why we thought Mahomes should have been the favorite even before that news.
• The NFL MVP race is most likely coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts with three games remaining.
• A couple of years ago, we laid out a formula for predicting the NFL MVP based on the stat rankings, by looking at which categories were most correlated with the winner.
• The six primary categories most correlated with MVP were, in order of importance/correlation: (1) Team Wins Rank (2) Total TDs Rank (Passing+Rushing/Receiving) (3) Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank (4) Passer Rating Rank (5) Team Points Scored Rank (6) Pass TD Rate Rank.
• The winner in those six categories by lowest weighted rank average has won the MVP each of the last 12 seasons, except for the one year a non-QB won the award (Adrian Peterson in 2012).
• Plugging those in this year (and using our projected wins for that category), Mahomes comes in with a weighted rank score of 2.1, Hurts at 3.2, and Josh Allen in third at 4.0.
• The Eagles do have more wins, but the Chiefs have slightly more points scored per game, and Mahomes leads in total TDs (38 to 35) and has the edge in all the other rate categories as well.
• The market is starting to shift, and you can find a variety of prices, but we believe the market is currently off overall, where Hurts is more commonly the favorite. 
• BetMGM has the best price right now, but this is playable to Mahomes having a slight edge (up to -140) before the Week 16 games, as he looks like the QB who should be the favorite right now pending the final three week results.

Staff notes:

• According to our automated predictions, there is a 41% chance that either Kansas City or the LA Chargers wins the AFC, above the 40% cutoff for positive value on this line.
• In addition, the Chargers are likely better than their power rating based on past injuries and a points-to-yards profile that is underestimating them by looking at past point differential.
• The Chargers also profile (with their pass-run distribution and pass profile) as the type of team capable of a run as a Wild Card.

Staff notes:

• Our projections for the rushing yards and receiving yards are directly in line with the offered odds in those categories, but we see value on Patrick Mahomes in the passing category, as he has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, ahead of Derek Carr and Justin Herbert.
• This line is also slightly off-market, as some other books have Mahomes closer to +800 and as a co-favorite in the category.
• An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last decade shows that 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
• Mahomes was 5th in passing yards per game last season, led the NFL in passing yards per game in 2020 (and would have led in yards if he hadn't sat Week 17), and also leads in yards per game over the last four seasons (301.7 yards per game).
• The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.0 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Kansas City is at 10.5 wins entering the season.
• The Chiefs play a very tough schedule against lots of other good passing teams, which should lead to increased passing from Mahomes.
• Of course, to win this award, the quarterback has to stay healthy and likely play every game, but if the Chiefs play near their win total expectation, he should be a favorite or co-favorite to lead the NFL.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Goedert is 629 receiving yards, with 95 yards of value.
• Goedert finished 2021 with 830 receiving yards, but we project value on the Under for several reasons.
• First, the Eagles traded for WR A.J. Brown and Goedert now has more target competition, and even if the Eagles do pass a little more, Goedert's relative target share should go down.
• Second, Goedert had a career high 14.8 yards per reception, allowing him to get to 830 yards despite only 56 catches. His career average over four seasons is 11.9 yards per reception.
• So we like multiple outs here, in addition to injury risk at the tight end position, as Goedert can go under even with a similar number of catches if his yards per catch regresses, and can also go under by seeing less reception volume.

Staff notes:

• Our current projection is for 211 rushing yards for Deebo Samuel.
• Samuel had 365 rushing yards last season, on 59 rush attempts (6.2 ypc), which would have just barely cleared this total, and it seems like a ceiling outcome.
• Injuries to the San Francisco RB corp last year created the necessity for Samuel to work more as a running back. Projected starter Raheem Mostert had only two carries, rookie Elijah Mitchell was the leading rusher while missing six games, Jeff Wilson missed eight games, rookie Trey Sermon disappointed and was inactive for half the season.
• The running back health situation will likely be better in 2022, with the team drafting Tyrion Davis-Price, and all the other backs (Mitchell, Wilson, and Sermon) currently healthy.
• Samuel also got a big contract this offseason after expressing displeasure with his usage as both a running back and receiver.
• So while we project the team to still use Samuel as a playmaker occasionally out of the backfield, and project him to have more rushing yards than any other wide receiver, the team will likely be less incentivized, because of running back depth and his contract cost, to use him as heavily as last season.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Mitchell is 824 rushing yards, about 126 yards of value.
• Mitchell, a 6th round rookie, finished with 963 rushing yards last year, leading San Francisco, while playing in 11 games.
• However, he did miss six games with a variety of injuries (rib, shoulder, knee, concussion) while being used heavily in games he did play, as San Francisco's running back depth was impacted by an early season-ending injury to Raheem Mostert and fellow rookie Trey Sermon struggling.
• Our projections have Mitchell as the RB26 in PPR formats, similar to his RB24 ranking in NFFC Drafts and RB23 in Underdog Best Ball formats.
• The biggest issues here are San Francisco's running back usage patterns, and the differing situations from last season for Mitchell.
• In Kyle Shanahan's five seasons as head coach in San Francisco, the team has had a different leading rusher each season.
• San Francisco was also really thin at running back last year, and WR Deebo Samuel ended up being the second-leading rusher. The team drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round in this draft, and he projects as part of a running back platoon behind Mitchell.
• FanDuel's line had opened at 975.5 but has already moved down to 900.5, but this line is currently available at DraftKings.

Staff notes:

• Miami is off to a 2-0 start after wins over New England and Baltimore, after completing a big fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens.
• Our current projections have Miami at 72% to make the playoffs after the 2-0 start.
• The break-even moneyline on Miami to make the playoffs as of Monday, September 19 is -253 (check our season projections page for the most up-to-date estimate.)
• Miami has gotten off to an explosive start on offense, and QB Tua Tagoavailoa has thrown for 739 yards in two games.
• Going back to 2002, 35 of the 50 2-0 teams (70%) to score more than 56 points in the first two games and out-gain opponents by at least 100 total yards made the playoffs (or would have with a 7th spot available).
• Six of the seven QBs since 2002 to start a year 2-0 while throwing for over 700 passing yards played on teams that reached the playoffs.
  
  
  
   

Staff notes:

• Initially, we had Gesicki projected for 54 receptions this year, not significantly different than this offering.
• However, in the last week, Gesicki has played into the second half of a preseason game and said he was working on blocking more, whereas in the past he had been a receiver.
• When asked about trade rumors regarding Gesicki, new head coach Mike McDaniels issued a non-denial when he said "I mean, the report is kind of misleading because there are probably just gonna be a lot of names on that report."
• Given the smoke here, and possibility that Gesicki is used in a different role now that he has a new coach and Tyreek Hill is at WR, as well as the possibility he is moved, there is some value on the under.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Winston is 23.1 passing touchdowns; he finished last year with 14 in 7 games played.
• Winston was a low-volume passer last year before his knee injury, but had an abnormally high TD rate (8.9%) compared to his career average and compared to most QBs with his Yards per Attempt (only 7.3). This number seems inflated by incorporating his most recent TD rate in a limited sample size of games.
• In a review of the eight other starting quarterbacks since 2002 to have a TD rate of 6.5% or higher on between 150 and 350 pass attempts, they averaged 22.9 touchdowns and a 4.7% TD rate the next season.
• Winston's career TD rate is 5.0%, and in order to reach 27.5 touchdowns at that rate he would need to stay healthy and get to 550 pass attempts, which would have been 12th most for any quarterback in 2021 (the Saints fell to 30th in pass attempts last season as a team).
• This total is also a little high compared to the Saints' win total expectation (implied 8.4 in betting markets currently), especially considering the Saints' strong defense in 2021. Similar teams in win totals market like Miami, Arizona, and New England have QB Pass TD props of 25.5, 25.5, and 23.5 respectively.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Jackson is 3543 Passing Yards, more than 200 yards of value below the prop number.
• Jackson's career high in passing yards is 3127, in 2019.
• He was on pace to shatter that in 2021, and was throwing at a high rate per game, until an injury cost him the final five games of the season.
• However, last year's Ravens team was decimated at running back before the season began. Despite missing games, Jackson finished tied for the most rushing attempts, and none of the top four running backs in attempts in 2021 are even on the roster now.
• Jackson also saw his INT rate rise dramatically and his efficiency drop with the increased pass volume, and that, along with the return of running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, has us projecting a return to the more balanced pass-run ratio the Ravens have had in previous years with Jackson at QB.
• As a result, there is good Under value here, both with his risk of injury as a running quarterback, and also that the team will seek to return to what worked more effectively in terms of pass volume.

Staff notes:

• This player prop pick is made in conjunction with our Tampa Bay team Under pick, as even though there are scenarios where one pick wins and the other loses, the two picks are correlated.
• Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards a year ago, setting a career-high in both categories in the 17-game season at age 44.
• However, with the recent retirement announcement by TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Chris Godwin still rehabbing from his December ACL injury, and WR Antonio Brown being cut by the Bucs, three of the four leading receivers from last year's team are unlikely to be playing early in the season.
• That means lots of turnover for Tom Brady and his receivers, and when you add in Brady's own retirement then un-retirement, and the abrupt coaching change in Tampa, there is lots of uncertainty entering the season in Tampa Bay.
• FanDuel also just released several NFL QB prop lines, and their offered line on Brady is 4500.5 passing yards, so you are getting some line value here by grabbing this DraftKings line while it is still up.
• Our current projected passing yards for Brady is 4569 yards, which could be adjusted further down if it's confirmed that Godwin will be inactive to start the season.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Johnson is 889 receiving yards, with 111.5 yards of value.
• Pittsburgh has ranked 4th and 1st the last two seasons in total pass attempts, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.
• We project a shift in passing volume for Pittsburgh transitioning to either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB, and have the team projected for more than 100 fewer pass attempts than 2021.
• Johnson has been the biggest beneficiary of that high volume passing, but the potential for a passing volume decrease and a shift in his usage provides value on this Under.

Staff notes:

• Harris finished his rookie season with exactly 1,200 rushing yards in 17 games played.
• This line, though, is a little high based on the risk of injury and uncertainty with the Pittsburgh offense with a QB change.
• The odds on Under have moved from -115 to -130 since this prop was opened, though the total has stayed the same so far.
• Harris is 5th in our projected rushing yards with 1,099 rushing yards and 4th in total yards from scrimmage among running backs, which is in line with the fantasy market average draft position data. He?s also 5th in odds to win the rushing title at several sports books, so we are on market their in our relative projection.
• Harris? most similar players averaged 14.1 games played in the next season.
• We do project positive regression in Harris' Yards Per Carry (3.9 last year), but that is offset by accounting for the injury risk.
• This is a playable pick because even if he is healthy for all 17 games, the Under could still hit, and if Harris misses games it is a likely winner.

Staff notes:

• Our passing yard projection for Justin Fields is 3,182 yards.
• Fields had a high 11% sack rate as a rookie, and ran the ball over six times a game, while averaging 180 passing yards in 10 starts as a rookie.
• Fields projects as a high volume rushing quarterback and a low-volume passer in Chicago's offense, particularly considering the lack of passing weapons around him.
• Add in some slight risk that Fields is not the starter all year on a bad team, or that he gets injured as a rushing quarterback, and the Under is playable, particularly with even odds.

Staff notes:

• Line currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook under "Team Specials" and the "mixed" tab, all the way at the bottom of the menu.
• Based on our odds for each of these teams to win its division, our estimate is that there is a 69.5% chance that at least one of these teams wins its division.
• The break-even odds needed to make this playable are 66.7%.

Staff notes:

• Jacksonville won against the Indianapolis Colts 24-0 in Week 2 to move to 1-1;
• While the Tennessee-Buffalo game result is still pending, the Jaguars are the only team so far in the AFC South with a win, and that was in division against the preseason favorite.
• This specific payout odds recommendation is based on the current line on Monday pre-Titans result, so check our Season Predictions page to see the updated odds if you are checking after the Monday night result.
• As of now, we project Jacksonville with a 27% chance of winning the AFC South, a division where we currently do not project any team for a winning record. The break-even moneyline for the Jags to win the South is +272.
• Jacksonville has a new coach (with a history of success) and a second-year QB who was drafted 1st overall in Trevor Lawrence, so after seeing he and the team get off to a much better start in 2022, there is some value on playing on this young Jags team based on how others have started.

Staff notes:

• Our current projection for Burks is for an average of 753 receiving yards in 2022, and we have him ranked as the 45th WR in PPR formats.
• Burks was drafted 18th overall by the Tennessee Titans, the fifth wide receiver selected.
• Burks' projection is based on his projected role, market data on where Burks is going in early drafts, and historical rookie comparisons.
• He will likely fill the top wide receiver role early on for Tennessee, after the team traded A.J. Brown, at least while veteran Robert Woods works back from a knee injury early in the year.
• However, Burks' historical comps aren't all that impressive, and he rated below average athletically among taller wide receivers (6'1" or taller) since 2011 in several important categories, including 40-yard time, vertical jump, and three-cone time.
• Of the most similar players to Burks in the last decade by draft position, age, height/weight, and Combine/athletic testing data, only two of the 10 had more than 869 receiving yards (pro-rated to 17 games).
• The five most similar rookies to Burks in this analysis are Laquon Treadwell, N'Keal Harry, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, and DeAndre Hopkins. Three of those five were major busts who produced less than 200 receiving yards as rookies.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Tannehill is 3464 Passing Yards, and the 236.5 yards of value is the largest of any of the 27 released QB Passing Yard props on DraftKings.
• Tannehill has been a low volume passer but efficient in Tennessee, finishing with 3734 and 3819 passing yards the last two years while playing virtually every snap and accounting for 99.2% of all Titans pass attempts the last two seasons. Logan Woodside's three pass attempts in 2020 are the only QB throws not by Tannehill over that span.
• We like the Under value here for several reasons, starting with star WR A.J. Brown being traded to Philadelphia and the team having lots of turnover in the receiving corp.
• The Titans also drafted QB Malik Willis in the third round, and while Willis is raw and not likely to supplant Tannehill as the starter without an injury, Willis being used in sub-packages and getting some playing time is very possible, especially late in the year.
• Tannehill barely cleared this total each of the last two years while playing nearly every snap, and when you add injury risk, personnel changes, and the addition of Willis, there are a lot of outs to going Under on this total.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Edwards-Helaire rushing TDs is 3.7 in 2022.
• Edwards-Helaire has not been featured near the goal line in his first two years, with four TDs in each season, and we are banking on that role not changing significantly in 2022.
• Edwards-Helaire had 44% of the running back rushing attempts the last two seasons in Kansas City, but only 13 of 40 attempts (33%) inside the opponent 5-yard line, and only 10 of 60 attempts (17%) in short-yardage situations (3rd/4th down with 2 or less to go).
• Darrel Williams is now gone to Arizona, but the team signed Ronald Jones from Tampa Bay (17 rush TDs in last three years) and re-signed veteran Jerick McKinnon at running back.
• As an aside, this is the biggest individual edge at rush TD, but the DraftKings lines on rush TDs are generally high on most running backs and there is systemic value on the Under here.

Staff notes:

• You can also get Higgins at FanDuel at 1000.5 Receiving Yards -110, a very similar play in terms of value.
• Our projection for Higgins is 1136 receiving yards, about 160 yards of value.
• Higgins finished with 1091 yards last year while missing three games in the regular season.
• The 23-year-old Higgins is 12th in our PPR rankings, similar to his position in Underdog Fantasy drafts where he is the 10th WR taken on average.
• Higgins has the 15th highest receiving yard total on DraftKings right now, behind several wide receivers going behind him in fantasy drafts.

Staff notes:

• The FanDuel line is a little under market, as most books have this at Carolina 6.0 wins with -110 on both sides, and it is still playable at the latter line as well if you cannot obtain the 5.5.
• Our projection for the Panthers is 6.5 wins in 2022.
• Carolina, like New York, was a team that had quarterback injury issues and poor backup QB play that impacted their season.
• The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start a year ago, but key injuries derailed the team and it went into a major slide, and only four players started every game a year ago.
• The biggest injuries were 1st round pick CB Jaycee Horn tearing his Achilles in Week 3, and star running back Christian McCaffrey going down with another injury the same week.
• The defense was among the league leaders in yards and sacks at the time of Horn's injury, and went into a slide after the injury.
• Sam Darnold averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in four games played with Christian McCaffrey, and 5.5 yards per attempt in all other starts.
• Our win totals research showed that teams with returning starting quarterbacks that missed five or more starts the previous year provide value against win totals, and that was before Dallas (Dak returning) and Cincinnati (Burrow returning) were two of the biggest win total value plays of 2021.

Staff notes:

• Our 2022 regular season projection for the Giants is 7.6 wins.
• New York's results from last season are dragged down by atrocious play from backup quarterbacks after Daniel Jones was injured, as the team went 0-6 and scored fewer than 10 points a game to end the season.
• The team average Yards per Attempt was 5.8 overall, but Jones averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.
• The Giants also had several injuries in the receiving corp that impacted the offense, and Saquon Barkley was not as effective in his first year returning from a knee injury.
• Finally, while this may be hard to quantify, former coach Joe Judge was a terrible leader, and new head coach Brian Daboll is likely a massive upgrade in both offensive philosophy and overall temperament/leadership.
• Add all those factors and this is a team that should be better than what the raw numbers from a year ago look like, and could at least bounce back toward respectability.

Staff notes:

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-3, and our current automated projection for PIttsburgh is 5.9 wins, already showing some value on the Steelers.
• In addtion, the team just benched QB Mitch Trubisky at halftime of the loss to the Jets, and put first-round rookie Kenny Pickett in the game. While they haven't announced him as the starter for this week, we anticipate he will be.
• Trubisky was averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt, and Pittsburgh's season-high in passing yards was 204 with him as starter. 
• PIckett already, in one half, showed the ability to push the ball down the field and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in his first half playing. He did throw three picks but one was on the final desperation play, and two others were deflected.
• In addition, the latest news is that T.J. Watt is hoping to return by Week 6, and he is a major difference maker. 
• With the switch to Pickett opening up the offense more, the potential return of Watt, and head coach Mike Tomlin's history of success, we think there is some value in Pittsburgh being much better in the second half of the season and reaching this low total.

Staff notes:

• 200-Yard Receiving Games are relatively rare (47 in the last 10 seasons, according to Pro Football Reference) but we still see value on playing these two props in unison.
• Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are consensus WR2 and WR3 in fantasy football rankings entering 2022, and at ages 23 and 22, respectively, entering the season, have lots of big play upside.
• Jefferson has never had a 200-yard game so far in two seasons (181 is his career high) while Chase had two of them as a rookie, including a 266-yard game against the Chiefs.
• Over the last decade, wide receivers who were ranked in the top 5 in consensus fantasy rankings entering the season have accounted for 14 of the 200-yard receiving games, among 13 different player-seasons (Calvin Johnson did it twice in 2012).
• That means in the last 10 years, wide receivers with preseason expectations like Jefferson and Chase achieved a 200-yard receiving game in 26% of seasons (13 of 50).
• If we use that as a baseline expectation, that means there is value at about +300 for each player.
• By playing them together, you have about a 50% chance of hitting on at least one of them this season.

Staff notes:

• The AFC North Division wins market is only available at Caesars/William Hill Sportsbook as most books are not offering that division right now because of Cleveland QB uncertainty.
• Baltimore had been one of the best teams in the AFC the previous two seasons, but in 2021 they were ravaged by injuries, which included all of their running backs being injured pre-season, and Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. So there's an injury bounce-back and value with Baltimore.
• Baltimore's season win total (9.5, with odds ranging from -130 to -150 on Over) is a little less attractive than the division win prop at Caesars, since the latter is more of a concentrated play against the Browns' situation, as games against the Browns make up one-third of the outcome.
• We project the odds that the Ravens win the AFC North (35.6% and potentially higher) as greater than their odds of winning fewer than three AFC North games (less than 30% based on our current game projections) and see value on both of these correlated plays.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for the Vikings is 8.9 wins in 2022.
• Vikings lines have moved up at some sports books, where they are now 9.0 wins with slight juice on the Over, but you can still get 8.5 at FanDuel (-130) and PointsBet (-135).
• This is playable based both on the extra half win compared to the market (with the juice not totally counteracting that), and on head coaching trends.
• In our fantasy football team projections, the Vikings' most similar teams included those with a new head coach, established pocket quarterback, and similar passing and points allowed numbers the year before.
• The 25 most similar teams went 15-8-2 against the Over/Under, and the six most similar went 4-1-1, with the only non-cover missing by 0.5 win and finishing 8-8.
• In our win totals research, teams with a first-time head coach (particularly younger head coaches) and teams where the previous coach had been there five or more years (and thus there was stability) outperformed expectations.
• First-time head coaches (2003-2021) are 49-37-3 (56.5%) against the Over/Under.
• Coaches taking over a team when the previous head coach had been in place for five or more years are 25-15-1 (62.2%) since 2003.
• After two consecutive years of just missing the playoffs, the Vikings replaced Mike Zimmer, who had been in Minnesota since 2014, with 37-year-old Kevin O'Connell, who comes from Sean McVay's offensive staff.

Staff notes:

• Tampa Bay is projected for 11.0 wins by our models, showing value on the Under.
• In addition, there is a lot of offensive uncertainty and turnover with the receiving group, with key injuries and new faces compared to last season, in light of Chris Godwin returning from a knee injury and Rob Gronkowski's retirement.
• Addendum on 8/1: Pro bowl center Ryan Jensen suffered a significant injury that could keep him out for months, creating even more potential issues on offense.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Waddle is 1053 receiving yards, about 128 yards of value.
• Yes, Miami acquired Tyreek Hill and that will eat into Waddle's target share some, but it will also likely lead to expanded overall receiving numbers and better coverage situations.
• Waddle had over 100 receptions in 2021 as a rookie despite missing a game, so even a slight regression in receptions can still hit this number, if his yards per catch bumps up.
• Last year, Waddle averaged only 9.8 yards per catch, however, that was dragged down by 5.5 games with Jacoby Brissett at QB where he averaged a paltry 8.0 yards per reception and had fewer receptions per game.
• Given his historical comps and his draft status as well as his rookie year production, we are projecting this total as a value on Waddle.

Staff notes:

• Our current projection for Seattle is 6.5 wins, a full win of value over the offered line.
• Seattle is already 2-2, so you need them to finish 4-9 or better the rest of the way to win this bet.
• The Seahawks' offense has been playing really well, and they currently rank in the top 5 in pass efficiency (net yards per attempt) and rushing yards per carry.
• Seattle is 30th in our predictive power ratings, yet we are still showing strong value on this number. They rate better in systems, like Football Outsiders' DVOA, that have per-play components given the pass efficiency numbers on offense.